Scarlet Pimpernel

Not that it necessarily matters at this point or that anyone really is paying attention to it, but to me it appeared that the 00Z GFS looked more or less similar to what it showed at 18Z.

Awww, now that's a rather nice philosophical way to word things!! Or wait a minute...are you not so subtly calling us all FLAKES?? (You wouldn't be wrong, hahaha!)

OK great, thank you! I'll look here for 00Z and beyond model discussion as well as current obs then.

Has this now become the obs plus any model discussion thread? Other one was locked. Just wanted to check.

I recall from some time back that you're from Louisiana originally! Gumbo is some amazing stuff for sure! As for me...doing an old-fashioned chicken soup tomorrow.

No specific event thread for next weekend, but check out discussion in the "January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion" thread. There's general talk there about potential beyond this current one there.

Very cold out, though I don't have an exact temperature measurement. Cloudy.

GFS around 8-10" through 18Z, according to TT 10:1 maps? That may be a little while after a flip but it's close to that time. Certainly after that it's sleet. (ETA: Talking about the DC-Balt metro corridor)

Is that time more or less in line with most other guidance except perhaps the NAM? Certainly the heavier precip up to the time we flip is better.

Well damn. I think the goal should be that we at least accumulate more snow than the amount of salt that now lies on roads and other paved surfaces!! It's ridiculous, the amount of salt that I saw on sidewalks outside some places today!!! The latest NAM has me doubting we'll accomplish that, however!!

Leaving aside whether or not the NAM is too aggressive with slamming that mid-level warmth in too fast (and too much)...I really wonder why it is so anemic with the QPF surge. I mean, it seems like it has generally the same overall synoptic setup and progression as most other models, I believe?

Same. I don't necessarily question the NAM's thermals per se for the most part (though I have a sense it's perhaps too aggressive on that). But it is clearly on the really light end in terms of QPF up to the point where most flip to sleet. Nearly every other model has a good, solid thump of snow into at least mid-morning or so tomorrow. Given LWX's latest forecast, I can only assume they view the NAM's QPF as a low outlier as well. We will see.

I'm tempted to ask but...maybe I shouldn't!!!

LOL!!! Well hell, that's about all that was left for TP at most supermarkets the past couple of days!!! Duct tape your s**t!!!

Ohhh, that sounds tasty!!! Perfect thing to cook and let simmer on a weekend like this!

I take that to mean north and west of the main urban corridor around DC-Balt. So north and west of suburban DC for instance, somewhere well enough outside the Beltway.

Interestingly, in their latest forecast package, LWX has actually upped the amounts a tad for the immediate DC suburbs in MD (Bethesda, Silver Spring, etc.) in tonight's snow as well as snow/sleet tomorrow.

I haven't been looking quite as much at this thread, obviously, with the upcoming event taking most of my focus. But overall I like the signal as we approach the end of January and first week of February. And actually that signal was appearing around that time for awhile now. I gave a very cursory glance at the GFS surface, and caveats aside about a deterministic run way out in time, but damn it looks to unload another 1050 high into the US near the end of its run!

Give it a huge dash of weenie hopium, a'la Emeril Lagasse!! BAM!

Yeah shoveling sleet, especially after it has settled for a bit, is...not fun. It's nearly impossible to scrape off a driveway. I guess hopefully it will be cold enough that it won't really melt/refreeze into a solid brick, and mainly just be like moving a bunch of pellets. Still not easy (compared to having only snow). Many, many years ago, growing up in northeast Ohio, I recall this storm that dumped sleet followed by heavy snow on top (kinda the reverse of what we're looking at tomorrow). In that case, the sleet did compress down and cake itself onto the driveway pavement. It took me forever to shovel snow and also scrape enough of the underneath sleet layer off!!!

"We used to roast upper levels back in the day at Camp Waconda!"

Yeah I hope some of that cutback in QPF in some of the mesos (NAM, in particular?) is not correct.

I mean, from a photographic standpoint it would look amazing...but obviously highly destructive and dangerous!