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MAG5035

Meteorologist
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Posts posted by MAG5035

  1. Looks like yet another warmup on the way latter half of this week. Seeing up to 55 by next Sunday. F**k this.

     

    This opening to winter so far has kind of reminded me of the 06-07 dead on arrival winter. I don't think MDT or LNS had their first measurable until like late January that winter if I recall correctly. Of course that one had the big second half turnaround and certainly some notable events (though that winter started out with a weaker nino that was fading quick). As it looks right now it might be Christmas week at best to maybe try to work a more favorable look to things, longer range models have shown some signs of at least dumping some cold into the US.. but certainly not an overly strong signal attm for such things as teleconnections don't look all that great and it's way out there range wise. Quite a work in progress, thats for sure. 

  2. First winter headlines of the season:

     

    URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
    417 PM EST MON NOV 30 2015


    PAZ017-018-024-025-033-034-010300-
    /O.NEW.KCTP.ZR.Y.0005.151130T2117Z-151201T0300Z/
    CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-
    INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DUBOIS...CLEARFIELD...PHILIPSBURG...
    JOHNSTOWN...ALTOONA...SOMERSET...BEDFORD
    417 PM EST MON NOV 30 2015

    ...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
    EVENING...

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A
    FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
    EVENING.

    * LOCATIONS...THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL
    MOUNTAINS...SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

    * HAZARD TYPES...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

    * ICE ACCUMULATIONS...A THIN COATING.

    * TIMING...THIS EVENING.

    * IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROAD SURFACES COULD BE ICY...MAINLY OVER THE
    HIGHER TERRAIN.

    * WINDS...SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

    * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

    HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.
    USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
    FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION...GO TO
    WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE OR MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

    REPORT ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE
    COLLEGE BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO [email protected]
    POSTING TO THE NWS STATE COLLEGE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
    @NWSSTATECOLLEGE WITH THE HASHTAG C...T...P...W...X.

     

     

    Temps right at freezing here and a pretty good drizzle going on but haven't noted anything freezing surprisingly, and it was a cold one to start the day too. Part of my hunting today was hiking on the very top of the Tussey Mountain ridge during the early afternoon when the drizzle/light rain started and it wasn't freezing (or mixing) at that point...which I'm quite glad for. With that said, can't rule out some scattered spots that end up with some light icing but temperatures should eventually rise just enough late tonight to end the minor zr threat.

     

    Other than that, what can I say? The overall pattern looks awful for snow lovers the next week to 10 days at least on our side of the country with no NAO blocking, +AO and a strong Pac jet (+EPO) looking to continue for the duration of that timeframe. Things had looked a bit better when I posted about the pattern over a week ago but it looks like we'll be spending the first portion of December with somewhat above average temps and very brief and transient shots of cold. At least it's early yet, and the western states can certainly use the active storm pattern in the meantime. 

  3. Thanks for the responses so far guys. Will keep track as long as it takes. Once it's at 10, I'll start up a contest thread :D

     

    I'll join in, one question.. JST the city or the official KJST site at the airport? There's a big difference between the two, KJST is at over 2200' and probably averages at least 80-90" a year while downtown is at 1100' and is more in the realm of 50 or so (49.96" per PA state climo office) for average snow. 

  4. This week, Joe Bastardi in his Weatherbell Premium blog said he sees the pattern setting up for the first week of December for a possible winter storm in the East. The ridge will be moving into western Canada, with the trough emerging in the southern plains heading east he said. Overall for December, Weatherbell had most of PA with temps averaging near normal for the month.

    The West has had a lot of snow this month, the Midwest is getting it now, and hopefully we will get on the board in PA in early December!

     

    Models have looked a little bit better the last day or so with that Thanksgiving weekend and after timeframe. The Euro especially and the GFS to a degree had been hung up with dumping a trough into the west and pumping and holding a ridge in the east. But as we get closer and into better range this appears to be turning into a late week system pushing a front across relatively quickly over next weekend returning seasonably cold weather back to our region. And as I posted a few days ago, the pattern this coming week isn't much of a revelation to me as I expected a changeable week with the cold retreating with nothing to hold it and another cutting system later in the week. 

     

    Teleconnections are forecast to become a bit better later in the week with the PNA swinging to positive, although the NAO looks quite positive and the EPO swings from negative to positive (but < 1 st dev on either side so quite weak). Might as well throw in the rest of the alphabet soup as well with the MJO forecast to skirt phases 2&3 or move into phase 3 (3 can be a somewhat mild phase this time of the winter) but lose magnitude heading towards/into the circle. The AO is forecast to remain solidly positive.

     

    So basically, I think the development of a positive PNA will help align the pattern to keep us colder, but the +AO is likely to keep really cold stuff bottled up north...and the +NAO isn't doing any favors. So if we end up with a colder pattern it probably won't be anything crazy. But we don't need crazy to score a snow event in our region.

     

    post-1507-0-58904700-1448143645_thumb.pn

     

     

     

  5. Every day I wake up, hoping to see my fears about the upcoming winter are false...that we'll see a consensus on  the long range will bode well for us snow lovers.  Well, just the opposite kind of consensus from the Euro, GFS, CMC.   :axe:   

     

    attachicon.gifpost-4215-0-96224600-1448043972.gif

     

    Well, on the other hand, it the trough axis would've been set up a little bit further east and perhaps dug a bit more we would be talking the first winter storm of the season for some or all of C-PA this weekend before whatever happens later this coming week. That looks to be quite a snowmaker for Iowa into the Chicago area and on through Michigan. 

     

    At any rate, those anomalously low heights over Greenland during that timeframe of those 7-10 day maps are especially ugly and def reflect on my post from a few weeks ago saying that things could really heat up in a hurry this winter if we didn't have some semblance of the Pac ridging pattern from last year, as I personally don't think the NAO is gonna be much help again this winter.. at least early. That setup as it is shown is just not right for us in it's alignment, with the undercutting western US trough and the high latitude + heights cutting into western Canada (no source region for any strong/sustained cold).

     

    So yea that looks like a pretty crappy period from a winter standpoint, but I'm nowhere close to worried about the winter as a whole. We just went through this last year and the Mid Atl/NE had a pretty lousy go of it all the way into January last year. 

  6. I would say the end of this week is shaping up to be the rude wake up call that has been due to show up given the summery conditions that have generally prevailed so far this month. Pretty significant system progged to develop in the north central states (lifting into southern Canada) and eventually drag a strong frontal passage across PA late Thurs into Friday this week..allowing seasonal late November weather to settle in for the weekend.

     

    More intriguing is a wave that is currently progged to develop following the late week frontal passage that would figure to at least reinforce/strengthen the cold in the area. Pretty reasonable similarites between the 12z GFS/Euro given the range and both develop at least a 3-6" swath of snow across the lower lakes (northern IL,IN,OH) before tracking the weak low through PA thus keeping best precip northwest. Something to watch as it could easily deliver the first snowfall of the season for at least the NW half of PA if it were something that would eventually end up further south than progged. Either way, could be the first notable LES outbreak of the season behind this progged wave as it drags -8 to -10C 850 air over the commonwealth for the latter half of the weekend into early next week. 

     

    I don't think it sticks around, yet...as Thanksgiving week looks to be changeable at first glance and teleconnections seem to support more progression (no major blocking) and probably a bit of a continuation of the overall troughiness/unsettled weather being biased more to the western half of the US (-PNA). There's really no one teleconnection that's forecast to be overly dominating + or -.. although the AO is forecast to make another brief swing deep into + territory. At any rate, It seems like a reasonable possibility that we'll have another warm up to some degree and probably another cutting system during Thanksgiving week. Overall nothing that's all that out of the ordinary for late November as it is usually about the time of the year we start seeing the actual winter weather try to fight it's way south of Canada. 

  7. Nice graphic. Shows you that a La Niña pattern basically is the worst to have for snow lovers in Susquehanna Valley.

    Sent from my iPhone

     

    It also can illustrate that neutral or weak El Nino's are no slam dunk either given the strong clustering of somewhat below average winters right in that weak El Nino range. Also mixed results with the two strongest ninos on there.. which in all likelihood are the 82-83 and 97-98 ninos. The 82-83 winter was a bit above average for Harrisburg (aided by the Feb '83 blizzard) while 97-98 was a just about a no show. Of course the 97-98 Nino managed to produce in interior PA with UNV for example recording a slightly above average winter snow wise. The pattern in the storm sense that winter was one that was traditionally favorable for C-PA snows but there was so much warmth in the pattern that it made the events that managed to be snow very marginal. I specifically remember that winter for getting some decent snowstorms but the snow would completely melt within a few days. 

     

    Speaking of 97-98, while this Nino has been the strongest one since then, and likely at least top 3 or 4 one overall, there's some pretty big differences outside of the ENSO regions. Saw this comparison today. Much more warmth along both seaboards this year, and the Atlantic is completely flipped temp wise vs this time in 1997.

     

    post-1507-0-62480600-1446683514_thumb.pn

     

     

    At any rate, it's just about a given that we will be likely dealing with a strong to at least strongly moderate El Nino through the course of the winter... which should help deliver split flow and a robust southern stream with more moisture loaded systems and coastals than we've really seen the last couple winters. That's something I would have a good amount of confidence in saying. However, other factors are going to play key roles in what we see around these parts this winter.

     

    One thing that jumps out to me with SST anomalies is just the overall amount of warm anomalies in both the oceans currently with sizable + departures all the way up the west coast to Alaska as well as in the western Atlantic along the Eastern Seaboard. The warm water up the west coast (outside of the nino regions) is a continuation of what we have seen the previous two winters.. which could imply more of a potential western ridging setup, which would allow cold canadian air to flow into the central and eastern US. The snow weenie in me can see the potential in that setup with the western ridging and a strong undercutting subtropical jet. On the Atlantic side, I have to wonder about those positive departures along the Eastern seaboard if they persist. Certainly could be a good thing for the interior northeast in a coastal storm scenario with the warm water adding some extra fuel but that warm water could also hurt the I-95 corridor and coastal plain, especially early in the season (December into Jan) with any coastal that tracks close to the coast. 

     

    Overall I see a high risk, high reward type scenario for this winter. I think one of the biggest keys will be if we see any semblance of the overall pattern we had last winter in the eastern Pac/west coast. I consider that more important for us than if we can get the more traditional -NAO blocking going.. as I'm not really keen on it being a significant influence once again. And if we had to rely on that in the face of an unfavorable Pac setup.. it better be one heck of a block because I think we could get overrun with a heat wave in a hurry in the wrong setup this year. Very hard to determine (as it always is) what will ultimately happen but as the last couple winters has taught us, I wouldn't get too complacent with traditional assumptions (i.e it's a strong El Nino so we're doomed or +NAO = eternal torch, etc).

  8. I'm pretty sure Mike and the media were confused. There were two different storms issued for separately. I suspose it was unfortunate they were in close proximity to each other spatially and temporally. But nonetheless, there were separate defining warnings for each storm

    At 509 LT, a warning (VTEC 30) went out for the nrn storm, while the Joplin storm (VTEC 31) was still developing on the SW flank.

    post-866-0-93765400-1337736582_thumb.jpg

    At 517 LT, the warning (VTEC 31) went out for the Joplin storm.

    post-866-0-02114100-1337736599_thumb.jpg

    Also, if you go back to the 2nd page of this thread (post 45) you find a poster that quoted JoMo's last few posts before the storm hit.. the second of which saying about the sirens going off. TIme on that post was 5:17 CDT, right at the time of the warning (VTEC31) issuance. 10 minutes later was his last post about the couplet being nearly overhead.

    Whatever happened to that particular thread (or portion of this thread) where people were posting as the storm was unfolding? I seem to remember that folks might've been watching that first warned cell when the Joplin cell suddenly exploded into the monster tornado signature just outside of town. There's of course those couple chaser videos that show this tornado going from a developing multiple vortice to a massive wedge in about the time it takes for the doppler to make one scan. I know that's one of the many aspects of this storm that fascinates me..practically watching the whole wall cloud drop to the ground in a minute or two.

  9. I'm ok. My family is ok. We just got power and phone service restored. 3 blocks away is completely gone though. I'll post a more detailed account once I check in with everyone.

    We know of at least 2 people we know that died. One was protecting his wife and died from injuries. She survived, he didn't. One had a compound fracture and bled to death, they couldn't give her a transfusion because they didn't have her blood type.

    Very glad to hear that you and your family are ok.

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