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MAG5035

Meteorologist
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Posts posted by MAG5035

  1. Just now, jm1220 said:

    I'd love for that to verify for you guys who live south of I-80, but places like UNV and definitely AOO are living on the edge with the warm layer aloft for a time. Models are showing a real pounding for a good few hours on the front end which can hopefully keep the heavy sleet to maybe Rt 22 and south, but if the warmer models are right, it would cut back quite a bit up to I-80 and even up to IPT. I could see the 14-15" being predicted for State College if the heavy snow comes in fast like a wall and the warmth can be held at bay, but I can also see it being 7-9" of quicksand from a surging warm layer. I'm really not seeing how Harrisburg gets 8". Hopefully I'm wrong and it's an overproducer, but I've gotten burned a few times on these storms when I lived in State College in the mid-late 2000s. 

    Yea here in Altoona it could go either way. 6-8" is probably still a good bet and if there's not a lot of mixing then a foot or so is certainly doable. I think UNV gets to 10". I had a post earlier today mentioning if that happened I believe would be the first winter they've had 2 or more 10"+ single events since 95-96. We got whacked by the November storm in this region under similar circumstances. I think the original warning was for like 4-7 and I had about 9 inches before it even mixed (on the way to 10.5") and State College had almost a foot. The damage was done on the front end of that one and it just poured snow for a few hours in the afternoon. This one is similar but stronger, more moisture laden and perhaps a bit further north. November's storm didn't have a closed 850 low and this one does which with the track of that into SW PA is the primary sticking point with this system. On the other hand we're deep into January and in the coldest stretch climo wise, there's a significant arctic air mass to the north that while not being fully tapped will likely anchor some CAD. I just don't think we're raining nearly to Williamsport on the GFS's track. (maybe if the super amped RGEM and HRDPS had its way). I don't think I've ever seen CTP bet the house on totals like this given uncertainty, esp in between the turnpike and I-80.  It's going to be an interesting day tomorrow. 

  2. 7 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

    Or swpa....

    Lol, that's a tough place for snow, especially under I-70. At least Pittsburgh metro rides the line a lot more often with these type of events.. and looks to do so again tomorrow. The low ultimately should stay under PA, so I think Pittsburgh should be good for at least 3-6". With how the low is tracking you guys may see some accumulations when the cold air changes things back over on the back side. 

  3. Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

    There was a storm in 2000 that was forecast to dump 2' and we ended up partly cloudy. Horst was calling for 6"-12" and he was the lowest bust. 

    I can't recall a bust due to getting rain and not snow. Usually our bad busts were total whiffs. 

    That sounds like that would be a big cities thing, where the rain/snow line set up on the wrong side of I-95. 

  4. I'm sure cloud cover is holding temps up a bit at the surface, but aloft the 925mb and 850mb temps are easily below 0ºC right now. The 850mb 0 line is running along southern VA right now per mesoanalysis. If surface temps are near or a tad above freezing at precip onset tomorrow they'll likely drop back some. In the far southern tier it may start as something else briefly until heavier precip cools the column all the way down. Onset of this isn't looking like it's till early afternoon in the Sus Valley. 

    1550199744_ScreenShot2019-01-18at10_19_21PM.thumb.png.aa252ef5ee4dad86e5ee6ba3e8bcfe68.png

    • Like 1
  5. 30 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

    This looks like somebody drew this up during a seizure. Or by Michael J. Fox. Perhaps Michael J. Fox had a seizure.

    Lol, I actually don't think his map looks bad, but it looks like he was trying to scribble out the SNE gang with his 4 and 8 inch lines. My local nitpick with it is if we actually get 12-16", that means there was little or no mixing. I think AOO-UNV corridor is in the 6-10" range if we get a more extensive wintry mix period. I doubt we get a foot plus AND a significant ice storm.  

  6. 4 minutes ago, 2001kx said:

    Dt posted his first call

     

    12-16 AND ice storm possible? How'd I get so lucky haha. 

    A few quick comments on the longer term before we get fully into this storm. It really looks to continue to be active and there is some serious arctic air on the table down the road. We do look to lose a cutter midweek but that sets the boundary for a secondary storm. 18z GFS for example had a snowstorm for a good section of the subforum while the Euro didn't press the boundary and phased up a <975mb low through the heart of PA. Other runs had the system completely SE of our region. So needless to say that looks like that may be our next headache. The day 8-10 Euro like last night unloads a major arctic air mass Lakes and NE with less than -30ºC 850 air over all of PA via a massive western/AK ridge bridged over the top to a major ridge SW of Greenland. -30ºC at 850 in PA is serious stuff if it came to fruition. That is Jan '94 cold outbreak variety. A lot of things to watch when we get past this impending storm. 

    • Like 1
  7. Updated CTP short term:

    Quote
    
    .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
    Major storm continues to have Central PA square in it`s sights.
    We have very high confidence in high impacts for almost all of
    the CWA. We have medium confidence of high impacts over the
    SErn-most counties. The threats change from N-S. Pure/only snow
    with SLRs of 14-16:1 along the NY border down to about I-80
    (slightly lower SLRs as you move south). There is still a chance
    of turning to sleet in the central band of counties (basically
    along route 22). The southern tier is almost certain to change
    from snow to sleet and freezing rain. The far SE (adams, york,
    lanc counties) may even turn to plain rain for a couple of hours
    before the precip tapers off. Yet, they will have such a mix
    that it will likely impact travel there, esp on the interstates,
    to put up the warning all over the area.
    
    The snow will probably start off with a bang - falling heavily
    in many/all places from mid-aftn through midnight. The chance
    for 1+"/hr rates is very high across much of the area according
    to latest prob/ens guidance, esp in the SW and central zones in
    the afternoon-early evening, and the central and NE zones late
    aftn-midnight. Totals have been solid/persistent for quite a few
    shifts/cycles. Have not moved much from the previous forecasts,
    only to add a couple of inches to the AOO-UNV-SEG corridor. Did
    nip a few hours off the end of the warning/watch to end it at
    18Z Sun, since all models end the steadiest precip between 11
    and 13Z.
    
    The wind kicks in over the NW in the middle of the night, and
    around sunrise in the SE. Gusts into the 20s will be common.
    Blowing snow is expected over the nrn two-thirds of the area
    where mostly snow will have fallen. But the stuff on the ground
    in the southern area may be so heavy after IP/ZR/RA that it
    should not blow around as much. Temps will be down to the single
    digits by sunrise in Warren Co, with the wind chill already well
    below zero by then.

     

    • Like 1
  8. 17 minutes ago, canderson said:

    WHAT THE F. That graphic is over the WSW even.

    @MAG5035 you're the pro here: What do you think CTP is seeing that us novice guys are missing in model studies? Clearly there is something different other than "they see cold air lasting longer" because they'd have a reason I can't imagine honestly.

    I don't know if I've ever seen CTP this bullish on a marginal type setup. 

    Here was my post from the previous page.

    36 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

    Wow 12-16" in the warning grouping for here. 10-16" on the northern counties. I'm very intrigued as to why CTP has been especially adamant on this being dominant on the frozen end. The 12z guidance today hasn't exactly instilled any confidence in me making a call for 10+ in the AOO/UNV corridor although warning snows are definitely likely. They could be taking precip intensity into account as this looks to be a fairly fast and very hard hitting storm in that department.. much like our November storm. That one overachieved in the LSV before mixing. Intense precip would keep an isothermal column for awhile when the warm air aloft tries to push in. They also could simply be factoring in climo too. This is the coldest time of the year, and we have arctic air to our north which should bleed in at the low levels to some degree as this storm approaches. This is hardly a frigid storm setup but it isn't necessarily a marginal one either.  

    I don't think there's anything being particularly missed with model analysis, I mean it is right there on the major models where they warm things aloft for mixing over southern parts.. but most have front end snows. I'll live or die with this but with the 12z GFS track it is NOT raining to Williamsport with this as it depicted. I do think as stated above that this will be a fairly fast and very hard hitting system that could deliver warning totals to the LSV up front before mixing, which could be where CTP is going with that. I dunno about 8-12" in H-burg but 6" isn't out of the question before mixing. There's likely to be pretty intense lifting to go with the front end heavy snowfall in a large part of the column, which could bolster ratios some (kuchera doesn't account for that). Even just a 12-14:1 type snowfall would pile up pretty fast. I also disagree that it is a marginal setup. Marginal would be if it's in the 20s across the border in Quebec with not much high pressure. It's to be in the MINUS 20s to -30s up there. Strength in the high pressure in mb is not necessarily as important as the pressure gradient between a mid-upper 1030s high vs the approaching 990s low from the OH Valley. Air flows from high pressure to low pressure. Thus I think low level cold is being understated some with bleeding down from the north. The only thing marginal is the track of the 850mb low being a bit NW of where we'd want it... but otherwise this arctic air to the north is enough to force the storm mostly underneath us. 

    But yea I am surprised their numbers are that high, although I expected warnings for the whole area. I was anticipating more mixing and somewhat lower totals. One thing I don't expect this to be is an extended rainstorm, even in the far southern tier. I think we all see varying degrees of a front end thump. 

  9. Wow 12-16" in the warning grouping for here. 10-16" on the northern counties. I'm very intrigued as to why CTP has been especially adamant on this being dominant on the frozen end. The 12z guidance today hasn't exactly instilled any confidence in me making a call for 10+ in the AOO/UNV corridor although warning snows are definitely likely. They could be taking precip intensity into account as this looks to be a fairly fast and very hard hitting storm in that department.. much like our November storm. That one overachieved in the LSV before mixing. Intense precip would keep an isothermal column for awhile when the warm air aloft tries to push in. They also could simply be factoring in climo too. This is the coldest time of the year, and we have arctic air to our north which should bleed in at the low levels to some degree as this storm approaches. This is hardly a frigid storm setup but it isn't necessarily a marginal one either.  

  10. I'm not sure how 12z UKMET fared yet vs 0z via meteocentre models. It appears to be faster and does breach the southern half of PA with 850mb temps at or above 0ºC. But I'm not sure if the 0z UKMET did that because it was slower and the warmest frame would have been after 48hr where it goes to 12 hour increments. 

  11. 32 minutes ago, Jmister said:

    Definitely jealous of you true Central PA guys this storm! 

    I came to State College in 2007 from PHL and was expecting to get pummeled by I-95 runners but instead missed out on 3 of the top 5 PHL snows ever while the single best storm in UNV my ten winters was 14" in Feb 2010 (PHL recorded 28" :blink:).

    Now that I'm back in the PHL area, these are the kinds of storms I hoped for back in State College. Figures.

    Enjoy!

     

    I'm pretty sure at least from looking at some of the KPSU observation archives that if the State College area were to see 10"+ from this storm that it would be the first time since the 95-96 winter for having multiple 10"+ events. Not even 02-03, 03-04, or 09-10 had that there (only 1 per winter). It doesn't happen too often even in the snowier winters. 

    3 minutes ago, canderson said:

    So say Harrisburg gets prolonged freezing rain Saturday night (I think it's possible with CAD issues here) - how/when the hell do you shovel? 

    Wait until mid-morning Sunday before the wind kicks up and try to take care of it before it becomes a freezer that needs defrosting?

    I try to clear off after things mix/change over and put salt down, and usually that'll make any sleet/ice easier to remove. Especially if there ends up being a good bit of sleet.. sometimes that's worse than having a crusty top to the snow.  That or leave whatever snow is there til the event's over but with the possibility of a rapid refreeze that might not be the best idea for this scenario. 

  12. Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

    That sounds very good...

    It sure is. I don't split hairs or isobars with pointing out very subtle run to run shifts. This is a pretty big shift back in the right direction with the mix line running the far southern tier under the turnpike but getting no further north in the LSV. 

  13. 12 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

    I saw this WPC snow map recently posted in another forum tonight.

     

    How were 18z GFS ensembles snow wise? I love Accupro's expanded stuff with model data but their ensemble section leaves a lot to be desired. At any rate it looked like it was a bit colder vs the means at 12z.

  14. 1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

    happy for you....I really am.....

     

    sniff sniff.

    Haha well still gotta get to the finish line. I am concerned about mixing taking the top end off of accumulations in the AOO-UNV corridor. Confident on getting to 6" but we'll see about double digits. November's storm was somewhat similar, mixing was supposed take over.. which eventually did but it stayed mainly a snow/sleet mix and we got to 10.5". In that one the damage had been done on the front end anyways, where I had over 3 inches in an hour at the height. This storm could/should have similar intense precip. 

    • Like 1
  15. 4 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

    Is that box a SWS box? I've never seen that before LOL

    Yea they're trying to be more proactive with sending out special weather statements. Typically for snow squalls although I guess this would kind of qualify, plus it's evening rush hour. 

    Speaking of statements, the winter storm watch is one of the more strongly worded ones I've seen recently.

    URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
    National Weather Service State College PA
    518 PM EST Thu Jan 17 2019
    
    PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>035-037-041-042-045-046-
    049>053-180630-
    /O.CON.KCTP.WS.A.0001.190119T1800Z-190120T2100Z/
    Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
    Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
    Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-
    Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
    Northumberland-Columbia-
    Including the cities of Warren, Bradford, Coudersport, St. Marys,
    Ridgway, Emporium, Renovo, DuBois, Clearfield, Philipsburg,
    State College, Johnstown, Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union,
    Lewistown, Mifflintown, Somerset, Bedford, McConnellsburg,
    Mansfield, Wellsboro, Trout Run, Laporte, Lock Haven,
    Williamsport, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Danville, Sunbury,
    Shamokin, Bloomsburg, and Berwick
    518 PM EST Thu Jan 17 2019
    
    ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
    THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
    
    * WHAT...Snow, heavy at times, followed by heavy mixed
      precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 9 to 13
      inches, with localized amounts up to 17 inches, and ice
      accumulations of around one tenth are possible.
    
    * WHERE...Through Central Pennsylvania.
    
    * WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon.
    
    * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to
      impossible. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph could cause areas
      of blowing and drifting snow.
    
    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
    
    There is the potential for significant winter weather that may
    impact travel. Continue to monitor forecasts and review winter
    weather safety and preparedness information at
    weather.gov/winter.
  16. 7 minutes ago, JTrout said:

    Did the ICON do any good with our NOV storm? I can't remember.  

    And does anyone think the snow cover to our south could help lock in some cold better then currently projected? 

    I think the cold up north under the high pressure will have more to do with longevity of surface cold. Some parts of southern Quebec are supposed to be in the -10's Saturday and down into the -30s for lows. The arctic cold is there. High pressure is moderately strong but the pressure difference is more significant with the robust low pressure coming from the south. I think surface/near surface cold transport via ageostrophic flow will favor the colder guidance and thus I think there may be a more expansive ice threat in the mixing areas. 

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