Jump to content

MAG5035

Meteorologist
  • Posts

    4,918
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Posts posted by MAG5035

  1. MDT has a shot at 70 on Christmas Eve if it can clear out and keep the winds down.

     

    The last two runs of the Euro haven't been quite the thermonuclear detonation that yesterdays 12z was. Today's 12z seems to have more of a hint of the GFS frontal passage by Xmas Day but not as pronounced. GFS still has a stronger frontal passage and there would probably be snow showers in the mountains later Xmas Day if the GFS had it's way. So July on Christmas is certainly not a slam dunk. 

     

    Either way it's still quite warm on both models the couple days leading up to Christmas, With one or two of those days maybe attempting 60+. Who knows what'll happen afterwards, GFS has looked changeable in the long range.. while Euro chugs right along with continuing to ram up heights in the east. Something's gotta give with this crappy pattern eventually. 

  2. Wow the Euro lol, todays 12z out at the end of its range has ridiculous temperatures. Broad area of 15-20ºC (!!!) 850 temps that move into PA and 65 to low 70s for surface temps Christmas Day in the commonwealth. 75-80 in sections of KY, TN, WV. Absolutely insane if that comes anywhere close to fruition.

     

    I have noticed that the GFS and Euro have been diverging a bit the last couple runs. The GFS runs a system and a front through by Christmas day and having much different temps (close to seasonal). Euros sending an energy depth charge into the west and building our Christmas in July (or should I say July in Christmas) ridge in the east. GFS more progressive with it. I'm sure the answer lies somewhere in between, the Euros probably driving and holding into the western states too much. Oh, and the GFS has a fantasy range significant mid-atl snow storm... so that in itself is progress haha. 

  3. Meanwhile in Colorado...closing in on 10" for the day north of Denver

    attachicon.gifIMAG2260.jpg

     

    You know, I was thinking of posting something to the tune of looks like PennMan took winter with him whenever he moved to Colorado haha. How much do you have for the season so far?

     

    As nice as it is that it's been so warm, I'm tired of it. I'm ready for snow and hitting the slopes. It can be 60+ degrees any of the other 3 seasons of the year. 

  4. The current SPC mesoanalysis shows 850 mb temperatures near +15 deg C over south central PA. That has to be close to a record for this time of year.

     

    That's gotta be about as high as it can possibly get this time of the year around here. We probably would be talking 70 or so in State College today if it had been a mainly clear day. I could only imagine how out of whack the departures for the month really would be at the central stations like UNV and AOO if we wouldn't have had Fogfest 2015 keeping temps fairly close to average for the better part of last week. Those few days leading up to Christmas are looking nearly as ridiculous with eastern warmth on the Euro/GFS right now. 

     

    Closing in on the latest first snow in recorded history here in State College... think the record is 12/20? At least the rime ice this past week was pretty cool  :drunk:

     

    There's a chance that we can avoid breaking that record by a day or perhaps tying it. For "measurable" all you need is to record 0.1" and with the cold air that is slated to arrive at the end of the week I think there's a reasonable chance we can get some kind of passing snow shower that could put a stop to that futility. The shot of cold, while not overly impressive from a departure standpoint, is still progged to be a fairly sharp one delivering -10 to -15ºC 850 air over the commonwealth. That alone should figure to deliver some instability/upslope snow showers in C-PA. Not sure if wind trajectories are going to veer enough behind that frontal passage to point any LES action into the Laurels and adjacent central counties. Given the insane warmth we have had, the LES this weekend could be quite potent. NW counties could see some pretty significant accumulations.

     

    After this stint of seasonable weather over the weekend, it is becoming quite apparent that it will be brief and we will be returning to an above average regime in the several days leading up to Christmas. A rejuvenated +NAO/AO (AO currently forecast to spike up to +5!), a -PNA, and +EPO suggests that the overall troughiness and below average temps and storminess will center on the western half of the country. Adding the MJO forecast into the mix, all models have it running in at least phase 4 for a bit and some of the Euro/UKMET forecasts have it running through the full 4,5,6 circuit. Those are the phases that have very strong correlation to eastern US warmth. In short, it's an awful look. I said early last month that this winter has plenty of potential, but if things don't cooperate (specifically the Pac with the PNA and EPO).. we were going to easily get run over with warmth given so much + departures from the El Nino and even the rest of the Pacific in general (Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic along the East coast are also above average). We need that +PNA ridge and a weak or -EPO to promote a flow with a Canadian source region, especially in the absence of any consistent -NAO regime.

     

    Plenty of time to get this mess sorted out, but it's looking like December is going to go the way of November and we will be hoping for things to turn for Jan-Feb, but a later start to things has generally been the consensus for this winter anyways. I think the potential for a really big snowstorm or two is better than the last couple winters, but it needs to be cold enough. 

  5. Here's a bit more perspective, as CTP shared this graphic on their Facebook page today. I had mentioned 06-07 in a post a couple days ago, and 07 makes a couple appearances in that. I hadn't realized State College recorded their latest ever inch of snow that winter all the way on Jan 29th. But yes, we are at a slow start this winter. We were just about in the same boat in December last winter except that we had a cold November and early snow. But we got quite a ways to go to approach some of those records. 

     

    Also interesting, check out the year of the record latest inch of snow at York. They didn't record an inch of snow in the 92/93 winter until Feb 22! It's amazing how one (or two if you were far enough in central PA) gigantic storm(s) can turn ones perspective of a winter. 

     

    post-1507-0-49284000-1449688039_thumb.pn

  6. Well at least somebody's getting some snow, even if is going by #poopsnow.

     

    Per CTP f-book this morning:

     

    Even though the area is under high pressure, a localized area of light snow fell overnight just to the east of State College. As dense fog developed over the region, several tenths of snow fell over a roughly three square-mile area near the Nittany mall.

    Dense fog was common over the area as temperatures fell into the mid 20s overnight. This led to slippery driving conditions on bridges and overpasses. However, in the small area indicated on the map below, additional moisture was added to the atmosphere by the natural condensation process of the local sewer treatment plant. 

    The additional moisture precipitated as a light snow. Just beyond the yellow circle on the map, no accumulation was noted. This process would be considered a microscale event - too isolated to be captured by local weather reporting stations. The images below are from Shiloh Road near the Premiere 12 theaters.

    Please use caution if you will be driving this morning as roads will remain slippery due to the dense fog and below freezing temperatures.

     

     

    post-1507-0-38582900-1449550274_thumb.jp

     

    post-1507-0-00036800-1449550303_thumb.jp

     

    post-1507-0-51182400-1449550321_thumb.jp

     

  7. Looks like yet another warmup on the way latter half of this week. Seeing up to 55 by next Sunday. F**k this.

     

    This opening to winter so far has kind of reminded me of the 06-07 dead on arrival winter. I don't think MDT or LNS had their first measurable until like late January that winter if I recall correctly. Of course that one had the big second half turnaround and certainly some notable events (though that winter started out with a weaker nino that was fading quick). As it looks right now it might be Christmas week at best to maybe try to work a more favorable look to things, longer range models have shown some signs of at least dumping some cold into the US.. but certainly not an overly strong signal attm for such things as teleconnections don't look all that great and it's way out there range wise. Quite a work in progress, thats for sure. 

  8. First winter headlines of the season:

     

    URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
    417 PM EST MON NOV 30 2015


    PAZ017-018-024-025-033-034-010300-
    /O.NEW.KCTP.ZR.Y.0005.151130T2117Z-151201T0300Z/
    CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-
    INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DUBOIS...CLEARFIELD...PHILIPSBURG...
    JOHNSTOWN...ALTOONA...SOMERSET...BEDFORD
    417 PM EST MON NOV 30 2015

    ...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
    EVENING...

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A
    FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
    EVENING.

    * LOCATIONS...THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL
    MOUNTAINS...SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

    * HAZARD TYPES...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

    * ICE ACCUMULATIONS...A THIN COATING.

    * TIMING...THIS EVENING.

    * IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROAD SURFACES COULD BE ICY...MAINLY OVER THE
    HIGHER TERRAIN.

    * WINDS...SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

    * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

    HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.
    USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
    FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION...GO TO
    WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE OR MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

    REPORT ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE
    COLLEGE BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO [email protected]
    POSTING TO THE NWS STATE COLLEGE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
    @NWSSTATECOLLEGE WITH THE HASHTAG C...T...P...W...X.

     

     

    Temps right at freezing here and a pretty good drizzle going on but haven't noted anything freezing surprisingly, and it was a cold one to start the day too. Part of my hunting today was hiking on the very top of the Tussey Mountain ridge during the early afternoon when the drizzle/light rain started and it wasn't freezing (or mixing) at that point...which I'm quite glad for. With that said, can't rule out some scattered spots that end up with some light icing but temperatures should eventually rise just enough late tonight to end the minor zr threat.

     

    Other than that, what can I say? The overall pattern looks awful for snow lovers the next week to 10 days at least on our side of the country with no NAO blocking, +AO and a strong Pac jet (+EPO) looking to continue for the duration of that timeframe. Things had looked a bit better when I posted about the pattern over a week ago but it looks like we'll be spending the first portion of December with somewhat above average temps and very brief and transient shots of cold. At least it's early yet, and the western states can certainly use the active storm pattern in the meantime. 

  9. Thanks for the responses so far guys. Will keep track as long as it takes. Once it's at 10, I'll start up a contest thread :D

     

    I'll join in, one question.. JST the city or the official KJST site at the airport? There's a big difference between the two, KJST is at over 2200' and probably averages at least 80-90" a year while downtown is at 1100' and is more in the realm of 50 or so (49.96" per PA state climo office) for average snow. 

  10. This week, Joe Bastardi in his Weatherbell Premium blog said he sees the pattern setting up for the first week of December for a possible winter storm in the East. The ridge will be moving into western Canada, with the trough emerging in the southern plains heading east he said. Overall for December, Weatherbell had most of PA with temps averaging near normal for the month.

    The West has had a lot of snow this month, the Midwest is getting it now, and hopefully we will get on the board in PA in early December!

     

    Models have looked a little bit better the last day or so with that Thanksgiving weekend and after timeframe. The Euro especially and the GFS to a degree had been hung up with dumping a trough into the west and pumping and holding a ridge in the east. But as we get closer and into better range this appears to be turning into a late week system pushing a front across relatively quickly over next weekend returning seasonably cold weather back to our region. And as I posted a few days ago, the pattern this coming week isn't much of a revelation to me as I expected a changeable week with the cold retreating with nothing to hold it and another cutting system later in the week. 

     

    Teleconnections are forecast to become a bit better later in the week with the PNA swinging to positive, although the NAO looks quite positive and the EPO swings from negative to positive (but < 1 st dev on either side so quite weak). Might as well throw in the rest of the alphabet soup as well with the MJO forecast to skirt phases 2&3 or move into phase 3 (3 can be a somewhat mild phase this time of the winter) but lose magnitude heading towards/into the circle. The AO is forecast to remain solidly positive.

     

    So basically, I think the development of a positive PNA will help align the pattern to keep us colder, but the +AO is likely to keep really cold stuff bottled up north...and the +NAO isn't doing any favors. So if we end up with a colder pattern it probably won't be anything crazy. But we don't need crazy to score a snow event in our region.

     

    post-1507-0-58904700-1448143645_thumb.pn

     

     

     

  11. Every day I wake up, hoping to see my fears about the upcoming winter are false...that we'll see a consensus on  the long range will bode well for us snow lovers.  Well, just the opposite kind of consensus from the Euro, GFS, CMC.   :axe:   

     

    attachicon.gifpost-4215-0-96224600-1448043972.gif

     

    Well, on the other hand, it the trough axis would've been set up a little bit further east and perhaps dug a bit more we would be talking the first winter storm of the season for some or all of C-PA this weekend before whatever happens later this coming week. That looks to be quite a snowmaker for Iowa into the Chicago area and on through Michigan. 

     

    At any rate, those anomalously low heights over Greenland during that timeframe of those 7-10 day maps are especially ugly and def reflect on my post from a few weeks ago saying that things could really heat up in a hurry this winter if we didn't have some semblance of the Pac ridging pattern from last year, as I personally don't think the NAO is gonna be much help again this winter.. at least early. That setup as it is shown is just not right for us in it's alignment, with the undercutting western US trough and the high latitude + heights cutting into western Canada (no source region for any strong/sustained cold).

     

    So yea that looks like a pretty crappy period from a winter standpoint, but I'm nowhere close to worried about the winter as a whole. We just went through this last year and the Mid Atl/NE had a pretty lousy go of it all the way into January last year. 

  12. I would say the end of this week is shaping up to be the rude wake up call that has been due to show up given the summery conditions that have generally prevailed so far this month. Pretty significant system progged to develop in the north central states (lifting into southern Canada) and eventually drag a strong frontal passage across PA late Thurs into Friday this week..allowing seasonal late November weather to settle in for the weekend.

     

    More intriguing is a wave that is currently progged to develop following the late week frontal passage that would figure to at least reinforce/strengthen the cold in the area. Pretty reasonable similarites between the 12z GFS/Euro given the range and both develop at least a 3-6" swath of snow across the lower lakes (northern IL,IN,OH) before tracking the weak low through PA thus keeping best precip northwest. Something to watch as it could easily deliver the first snowfall of the season for at least the NW half of PA if it were something that would eventually end up further south than progged. Either way, could be the first notable LES outbreak of the season behind this progged wave as it drags -8 to -10C 850 air over the commonwealth for the latter half of the weekend into early next week. 

     

    I don't think it sticks around, yet...as Thanksgiving week looks to be changeable at first glance and teleconnections seem to support more progression (no major blocking) and probably a bit of a continuation of the overall troughiness/unsettled weather being biased more to the western half of the US (-PNA). There's really no one teleconnection that's forecast to be overly dominating + or -.. although the AO is forecast to make another brief swing deep into + territory. At any rate, It seems like a reasonable possibility that we'll have another warm up to some degree and probably another cutting system during Thanksgiving week. Overall nothing that's all that out of the ordinary for late November as it is usually about the time of the year we start seeing the actual winter weather try to fight it's way south of Canada. 

  13. Nice graphic. Shows you that a La Niña pattern basically is the worst to have for snow lovers in Susquehanna Valley.

    Sent from my iPhone

     

    It also can illustrate that neutral or weak El Nino's are no slam dunk either given the strong clustering of somewhat below average winters right in that weak El Nino range. Also mixed results with the two strongest ninos on there.. which in all likelihood are the 82-83 and 97-98 ninos. The 82-83 winter was a bit above average for Harrisburg (aided by the Feb '83 blizzard) while 97-98 was a just about a no show. Of course the 97-98 Nino managed to produce in interior PA with UNV for example recording a slightly above average winter snow wise. The pattern in the storm sense that winter was one that was traditionally favorable for C-PA snows but there was so much warmth in the pattern that it made the events that managed to be snow very marginal. I specifically remember that winter for getting some decent snowstorms but the snow would completely melt within a few days. 

     

    Speaking of 97-98, while this Nino has been the strongest one since then, and likely at least top 3 or 4 one overall, there's some pretty big differences outside of the ENSO regions. Saw this comparison today. Much more warmth along both seaboards this year, and the Atlantic is completely flipped temp wise vs this time in 1997.

     

    post-1507-0-62480600-1446683514_thumb.pn

     

     

    At any rate, it's just about a given that we will be likely dealing with a strong to at least strongly moderate El Nino through the course of the winter... which should help deliver split flow and a robust southern stream with more moisture loaded systems and coastals than we've really seen the last couple winters. That's something I would have a good amount of confidence in saying. However, other factors are going to play key roles in what we see around these parts this winter.

     

    One thing that jumps out to me with SST anomalies is just the overall amount of warm anomalies in both the oceans currently with sizable + departures all the way up the west coast to Alaska as well as in the western Atlantic along the Eastern Seaboard. The warm water up the west coast (outside of the nino regions) is a continuation of what we have seen the previous two winters.. which could imply more of a potential western ridging setup, which would allow cold canadian air to flow into the central and eastern US. The snow weenie in me can see the potential in that setup with the western ridging and a strong undercutting subtropical jet. On the Atlantic side, I have to wonder about those positive departures along the Eastern seaboard if they persist. Certainly could be a good thing for the interior northeast in a coastal storm scenario with the warm water adding some extra fuel but that warm water could also hurt the I-95 corridor and coastal plain, especially early in the season (December into Jan) with any coastal that tracks close to the coast. 

     

    Overall I see a high risk, high reward type scenario for this winter. I think one of the biggest keys will be if we see any semblance of the overall pattern we had last winter in the eastern Pac/west coast. I consider that more important for us than if we can get the more traditional -NAO blocking going.. as I'm not really keen on it being a significant influence once again. And if we had to rely on that in the face of an unfavorable Pac setup.. it better be one heck of a block because I think we could get overrun with a heat wave in a hurry in the wrong setup this year. Very hard to determine (as it always is) what will ultimately happen but as the last couple winters has taught us, I wouldn't get too complacent with traditional assumptions (i.e it's a strong El Nino so we're doomed or +NAO = eternal torch, etc).

  14. I'm back, been fairly busy and the weather had been anything but busy until this week.

     

    I definitely think the East Coast is currently facing the biggest tropical threat we've seen since Hurricane Sandy back in 2012, although this would figure to be a more traditional landfalling tropical system vs the hybrid monstrosity that Sandy turned into. Big similarity is anomalous blocking high up north being progged which would leave Joaquin with few escape/recurve options. Basically, to me.. it has that look for a tropical system to drive into the East Coast vs a glance or recurve.

     

    The European seems to be one of the only models that has had it escape, and it looks to be continuing that trend in the 12z run coming in. So that's a pretty reliable model sticking out in the face of most of the other models progging this to make landfall somewhere on the East Coast. I only have access to the Euro ensemble mean and the 0z run from last night certainly appeared to lend to some uncertainly and likely some closer and/or landfalling members within the mean. 

     

    So obviously, much uncertainty remains and it will likely continue being that way for the next couple days. Definietely something that most on the East Coast should be monitoring carefully.  As for the storm itself, it figures to potentially become quite strong.. likely becoming a major hurricane given favorable conditions. SST's in that region this time of the year would already be quite favorable to begin with normally but are in fact running anomalously warm in a good portion of the Atlantic (something that has my attention for the winter, but that's for another day). Concerning to me are the landfalling models all making a pretty hard left turn into the coast in response to that blocking high. That's a bad approach storm surge wise for most of the East Coast.. specifically in the Mid Atlantic/DelMarva region (and of course farther north on the Jersey shore and NYC). There already would figure to be a high surf/coastal flooding threat just from the easterly fetch between the sprawling high and hurricane without Joaquin potentially riding that straight into the coast. 

     

    While I don't foresee this going full Sandy, this hurricane will have more top end potential in the traditional sense.. given that we are nearly a full month earlier in the fall (warmer water). With enough strength and forward momentum, a major hurricane landfall could certainly be a possibility.. something the US hasn't seen since 2005 (Wilma). 

  15. Pulled up the radar data from Friday and was going over it this morning since I never really had a good look at it while the storms were going through Friday. Given the D1 SPC tornado probs that were out for Friday (5% over most of the eastern half of PA and 2% elsewhere), I was kinda surprised they went for a straight up tornado watch despite some favorable parameters. However it probably ended up being a good thing as CTP's area ended up with 2 confirmed despite what otherwise was a run of the mill PA severe day at best and both came out of non warned cells. I know that if I were in the NWS's position I likely wouldn't have tor warned the responsible cells either as the velocity scans didn't really show very much. One of those situations where real time spotter reports would be very valuable for issuing warnings. 

     

    2039z (440pm)

    post-1507-0-06913700-1436722665_thumb.pn

     

    2044z

    post-1507-0-54938700-1436722736_thumb.pn

     

    2055z

    post-1507-0-92219500-1436722774_thumb.pn

     

    2100z

    post-1507-0-82872500-1436722805_thumb.pn

  16. Looking ahead a bit. With what experts are saying will be a very strong El Nino this winter, what does that mean for our winters typically? 

     

    We're already seeing the effects of the El-Nino in the tropics, where the SST anomalies are below average in the tropical Atlantic where we should be starting to see increasing convection as the Cape Verde hurricane season typically starts kicking into gear in August. 

     

    In terms of winter certainly more than a weak El-Nino should generally imply that our region might have a wetter winter than the previous two.. as those last two were fairly dry, specifically last winter which helped have us in the hole enough for drought watches in some central counties before the June deluge set in. Additionally, that should eventually help the drought stricken west coast as the winter wet season sets in. A more influential El-Nino should bode well for an active southern jet and more precipitation chances, with of course the question being how much of those precipitation chances get cashed into snow events. Current ENSO forecasts have quite a sizeable El-Nino event persisting into the winter (flirting with and/or exceeding "Strong" status of > 1.5C)..quite possibly making for an event that competes with the 97-98 super nino. 

     

    For a refresher the 97-98 winter was a very active one storm wise and often had quite favorable snowstorm tracks, but was very devoid of cold air. That led to interior sites like State College and Williamsport seeing an average winter snow wise while LSV sites saw a pretty lousy winter (Harrisburg had ~12" for that winter). Not saying we're going to see a repeat of course. A large portion of the Pacific up the west coast into the Gulf of Alaska persists with also having above average SST's (which has aided in the major Pac ridging we have had the last couple winters). So it remains to be seen how that whole Pacific pattern interacts with itself as we get into the fall and so forth. And of course the ENSO forecasts are just that.. forecasts. Reality could have an early peak and fade of the Nino in time for the winter months. Either way we're likely looking at a moderate nino winter at least, and I would wager we could see a milder winter (at least IN COMPARISON to the last couple).. which isn't necessarily a bad thing. If I were an I-95er.. I would hope the "strong" nino event doesn't come to fruition.. as the correlation between that and below average snowfall is quite a solid one. 

  17. I'm pretty sure Mike and the media were confused. There were two different storms issued for separately. I suspose it was unfortunate they were in close proximity to each other spatially and temporally. But nonetheless, there were separate defining warnings for each storm

    At 509 LT, a warning (VTEC 30) went out for the nrn storm, while the Joplin storm (VTEC 31) was still developing on the SW flank.

    post-866-0-93765400-1337736582_thumb.jpg

    At 517 LT, the warning (VTEC 31) went out for the Joplin storm.

    post-866-0-02114100-1337736599_thumb.jpg

    Also, if you go back to the 2nd page of this thread (post 45) you find a poster that quoted JoMo's last few posts before the storm hit.. the second of which saying about the sirens going off. TIme on that post was 5:17 CDT, right at the time of the warning (VTEC31) issuance. 10 minutes later was his last post about the couplet being nearly overhead.

    Whatever happened to that particular thread (or portion of this thread) where people were posting as the storm was unfolding? I seem to remember that folks might've been watching that first warned cell when the Joplin cell suddenly exploded into the monster tornado signature just outside of town. There's of course those couple chaser videos that show this tornado going from a developing multiple vortice to a massive wedge in about the time it takes for the doppler to make one scan. I know that's one of the many aspects of this storm that fascinates me..practically watching the whole wall cloud drop to the ground in a minute or two.

×
×
  • Create New...