MAG5035

Just now, 2001kx said:

Would be nice if that happened.

Just yesterday the NWS had me at 80%+ to get 8" 

With the storm being further northwest, we missed out on warm advection snows that broke out earlier in the day (went into upstate NY) and also the axis of deform snows is off the NW as well, so that made us depend almost completely on front end.  But either way we're going to have one heck of a glacier tomorrow with that arctic air crashing in. It's still 30-31ºF down here and mainly some light freezing rain with the snow getting a crust on top. With the lack of surface wind I don't expect temps to move up very much in the central counties (other than Laurels), maybe getting a couple degrees above freezing right before the cold comes in. 

13 minutes ago, djr5001 said:

Highest I saw after the changeover was 3.8” here (west shore Harrisburg - north Enola) but it is 36 and still raining so that is already compacted down to just below 3”.  At this rate I may not even need to shovel in the morning.  Temps are now into the 50s in WV and southern MD/VA at almost 1am in January and if this low continues to track to our west overnight we may end up in the 40s across southern PA by sunrise.

Above freezing temps aren't going to last long this morning, and it doesn't look like the Harrisburg area is going to get to 40+. HRRR has most of the LSV back below freezing by noon. 

Just now, 2001kx said:

Right around 5.5" (same as the earlier storm)

I guess the hunt for a big snow storm still lives...It just doesnt happen here for some reason.

That's it? Wow I'm surprised. Figured you were gonna end up a couple inches better than here. Might have to see if you get a piece of the deform when the cold air starts pressing west to east a little later this morning and tries to change the leftovers over before moving out. Some of the 0z models were actually trying to hint at more of that deform swinging further into western PA. 

Mixed sleet and freezing rain now. Got the driveway blown off and some salt on it. Glad I did... it was a heavy, thick snow without the sleet/ice starting to fall on it. Another 0.4" of frozen in the meantime to bring overall total up to 7.3".

Snow putting up a fight and back to the dominant p-type for now with a some pingers mixed in. 

Changeover occurring.. snow, some sleet, and maybe some freezing rain. Cleared off at 6.9". 

13 minutes ago, north pgh said:

Nice picture. I am 2 hours west of you and still have moderate rain. We here may end up with zero inches from this storm. 

You guys definitely fared the worst out of all of us on that jog NW the storm ended up doing at game time. I expected Pittsburgh to ride the line and it looked like it mixed/rained all the way to Clarion. Fortunately it's still only Jan 19th. I think we will have more chances down the road in the perhaps nearer future. 

Beginning to show signs of changing. Still snowing hard but bigger aggregates mixed in and they're rimed. 

6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Hang on for as long as you can. You’re State College’s probably 45-60 minute warning this event. 

It's getting close, probably within the hour or maybe even half hour. Latest radar seems to show it already in southern Blair. Pretty much on schedule as the HRRR has had it this evening mixing near midnight. Gonna be one heck of a pack when it freezes solid probably after about 8 or 9am tomorrow... the snow on it's own is pretty thick. I'm probably going to clear the driveway when it mixes over. 

Just came back from a nice walk down the street to Sheetz and it is pouring snow. Over 6.5” now so warning is verified. 

5.7" and moderate to heavy snow. 0.7" last hour. 30ºF

6 minutes ago, pawatch said:

Dropped totals again.

 

That snowmap is valid from 7pm onward so that map may be additional to whatever you had on the ground at that time. 

5 minutes ago, 2001kx said:

Congrats State College

 

Here was CTP's new ice map to go with that. Over 0.25" on the Allegheny Front in the Laurels.

Up to 5", it's dumping snow. Almost an inch in the last 30 min. 

Just now, whiteout said:

5.5” and dumping 2mi NW of Newville, far NW Cumberland 

Lol, that would verify a warning in one of the counties CTP downgraded to an advisory. 

Best rates of the storm so far. Heavy snow and up to 4.2"

At 3.5", moderate snow and 31ºF. 

Just reaching the 3" mark. Moderate to heavy snow and 31ºF. About an inch in the last hour. 

5 minutes ago, 2001kx said:

Sounds good..how long do u think we have up here till the pingers?

HRRR has been pretty insistent on roughly a 12am-1am changeover here and up there. We should see some good snowfall this evening. 

@2001kx you look to have a pretty good shot of heavy snow getting ready to arrive in Clearfield.

Snow rates picked up pretty nicely here with the enhancement of radar as the main shield arrives. At 2" now and 31ºF.  Snow's pretty wet and packable. 

Yea, the main stuff is just arriving into the LSV. Might want to let to snow arrive and the changeover to happen before claiming this or that on this storm. The storm came NW, and is being observed as being NW. Sliding the low under PA is one thing but you can't run a 992 low into SW PA and then through PA without more significant p-type issues. In the meantime, it's going to snow most everywhere in the LSV for a few to several hours this evening before changing over S to N. A look at LWX radar indicates that mixing line looks to be still down near the I-70 corridor in MD. 

6 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

https://twitter.com/misterjamo/status/1086624750724698113?s=19

Lol, wonder if the folks in the Pittsburgh thread saw that. 

8 minutes ago, 2001kx said:

Flurries here at best

It's coming for you soon with the steady heavier stuff starting to lift up from Pittsburgh and SW PA towards you. 

At the 1 inch mark here with steady light-moderate and temps still around 32ºF.

I can agree with the downgrade on the southern tier counties.. Franklin, Adams, York, Lancaster, maybe Cumberland. But I probably would've rode out the other LSV counties, I still think they get somewhat close to the 5" threshold (3-4" or so) plus the dual impact with the mixed precipitation. 

Keeping an eye on HRRR trends, I guess we'll see if it ends up being correct on running the low right through the southern half of PA to NJ. That's quite far to the NW, and it still delivered said 3-4 in around H-burg up through Voyagers neck of the woods before changing to sleet in those areas as of the 18z run. 

Off and running, heavy snow currently.

Disclaimer: Already had prior snow on the ground