MAG5035

5 minutes ago, paweather said:

Sorry Just discounted. the EURO, why? One run out of how many. I just want to understand why. 

I'm talking about several runs including all of Friday with the op being south and ensemble mean barely getting the 6" line above the mason-dixon line. That 30-40" solution in VA/DC was a couple days before that. Nowhere did I say I discounted it... I just said I didn't think it was superior to other guidance the few days leading up and it wasn't. 

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Red tagger just dumped on the euro in ma.  Guess someone is dismayed by its roaming jackpot so defintely a tough storm for modeling.

Not wrong though, I don't think it was overly superior to other model guidance trying to reel this thing in the last few days. There was that particular run he referenced where the bullseye was in northern VA but it also spent a whole model cycle being south with the 0z Friday run missing a chunk of the Sus Valley and the very area of eastern PA and northern NJ targeted with what will likely be the biggest totals (2'+) was only getting a trace at best.   

Looks to be up over 2" now, moderate snow. On the southern end of some enhancing on the radar.  Best snow has seemed to be residing in the north-central between UNV-IPT and NW of that line a bit so far this evening. Also another band of imbedded heavier snow working up from Frederick up toward York/Lancaster.

About 1.5" total so far. Steadier snow has finally got here in the last hour. 

Nice burst of snow after what has been a pretty quiet afternoon (only light snow of the "for show" variety). Big flakes. Should be getting into some steadier stuff in the next hour or two. 

2 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Osceola Mills in particular is like its own snow planet. 

Houtzdale too, although I guess that's only 5 miles down the road.

Hard to ignore the trend on guidance centering the biggest amounts on far eastern PA/northern half of NJ into NYC with the coastal low getting captured a bit higher up the coast. Now when i say "biggest amounts" I"m mainly talking about the excessive stuff (20+). I still like the general 8-14" in our region, but we're going to have to watch the southern tier and NW part of C-PA for some bust potential either direction as well as a zone TBD that could see higher amounts than the said 8-14". 

As mentioned, the most intense deform from the coastal winding up targets far eastern PA/Nj/NYC, but the overall fetch and likely extension of this deform is still going to reach back into C-PA and questions are where and how intense? You look at models like the 3k NAM and RGEM and they actually arc the best snow with this more through northern/central, while Euro/GFS runs southern third of the state. I'm not sure the near term guidance (HRRR) is robust enough with the precip shield/banding later on tonight into tomorrow but there's a lot to be determined yet and HRRR (outside of the 0,6,12,18z) doesn't even reach out to where the coastal really winds up yet. Also have to monitor the slot far southern tier LSV and maybe some mix while precip's light but worst case scenario I still expect at least 5-8". Again though, the overall picture is this continues to look like a long duration general 8-14" snowfall over the area. 

Ratios. Taking a rough gauge of the latest Euro snowmap, for instance... The big amounts stretching back deep into C-PA are driven more by high ratios while the big amounts in the Lehigh Valley into NJ are driven by QPF (likely the better bet to realize widespread big amounts). This is also notable on the RGEM too. Not to say there won't be notably higher ratios late in the storm, but I think it will be narrowed down where the bands set up at that stage of the storm inside of the overall precip shield. If your running a steady light to moderate rate outside of heavier bands, probably going to continue to have 10-12:1 type ratios.  

Biggest takeaway, patience is definitely required for this event. 

Saw flurries start as early as about 5am this morning snow but really didn't get going til about 9am this morning. Currently light snow and 1.3" on the ground.

I'm not really seeing many surprises in the early going. Guidance has had this starting slow for days and that's what its doing. Near term stuff has had the initial surge of snowfall followed by a bit of light period while the precip shield rebuilds from Ohio and pushes into PA later this afternoon, which judging by radar trends seems on target. 

58 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Don’t they have a Pittsburgh thread on here?

Asking for a friend....

When I made this storm thread I said western PA folks were welcome to post obs and discussion over here. 

With that said let's keep the posts useful and on topic. 

Another areawide Euro thrashing at 0z. I-81 corridor from Harrisburg to Scranton roughly being the bullseye, although most of eastern PA is 20"+ on Kuchera and Euro hasn't yet relinquished the snow completely all the way through hr 69.

1 minute ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Just popping in so I can join y'all for a free beer. 

Really just wanted to say good luck, we've had a solid winter so far in the western part of the state, glad to see a storm that looks to have a little something ( in some cases a lot of something) for everyone. 

Lol, good luck over there too. Looks like Pittsburgh's going to be getting started within the next couple hours. 

Incoming

I don't know why we're all so feisty in here tonight.

Here's the thing with some of these crazy amounts coming out of models like the RGEM. If someone in eastern PA sees 40-55" from this storm I'll buy everyone in here a beer lol. To me, nailing down this deform band late in the storm means trying to locate an area that sees perhaps up to two feet or so but likely more of a general 18-24" bullseye area. Other than that, this is within a zone where basically every regular in here including 2001kx and wmsptwx should easily see a warning event and I think this is mostly a 10-14+" swath for everyone under I-80 (and probably above it too eastern third to half of PA). We'll have to watch for the slot and perhaps a slight bit of mixing toward the MD border, but I don't think this kills totals all that much by the end if it happens. We should have snows flung back into PA for a good while even if we don't get the intense deform band in our area.

26°F and calm. About to be a good bit more snow in the yard.

3 minutes ago, Jim Marusak said:

I'm thinking someone took the 00Z Canadian R-Gem and gave either their latent heat equations the LFM treatment or treated the upslope into the southern Poconos the old Canadian Regional lower mainland of BC treatment. no way in heck the Lehigh Valley and I-78 corridor down to the Reading Outlets see 40-55" of snow out of this event.

Hah maybe they forgot to change the units from cm to inches. Funny thing is that still would convert to 18-24" there, lol.

15.4" on 1.2" precip"

6 minutes ago, Greensnow said:

BGM-

Well, that escalated quickly. Miller-B systems feature one low
weakening - in this case in the mid Ohio Valley - and
transferring energy to a new coastal low. They are notorious
for being very difficult to forecast, and indeed there still
remains quite a bit of spread in the models. However, most of
them have trended significantly stronger with coastal low
development while also keeping it closer to shore as it moves up
the coast.

Yup, that's been the last 24 hrs in a nutshell watching guidance evolve with this lol. 

18 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I'd think were too far east to achieve anything more than 12-13:1 as its not that cold of a storm.  

per GFS heres warmest panel

 

then as coastal gets cranking we see this during max precip. and ccb's.  IMO thats great but not cold enough to really fluff it up. Still not a complaint in the world for me.

 

 

With a good snow column that doesn't have a warm nose in it and below freezing surface temps, it's more important what the temperature is where the best lift is occurring. Taking the Euro, temps are about -7ºC to -10ºC at 700mb where the big lift and heavy snowband is late in the storm. So not quite in the DGZ but it's definitely sufficient for good ratios. 

4 minutes ago, pawatch said:

Twice this season Mag has opened a separate discussion for a substantial storm.

what a difference a year makes    

Good Luck everyone!

I can't take credit for the December storm haha, @pasnownut made that one. 

4 minutes ago, 2001kx said:

So should we expect closer to the Kuchera totals or ?

The early part of the storm where most of us spend likely the first several hours with a steady lighter snow probably won't have anything special in the ratio department... like an 11-12:1. Banding later in the event when the coastal starts cranking will be where we start seeing better ratios within heavier bands.. perhaps up to 15:1 or so. Euro generally had a 13-15:1 average going straight off of Kuchera amount divided by total QPF. Even the outlandish totals the RGEM have in the LSV are about a 12-13:1 average ratio with 15:1 out this way. 

It's time guys, I did the thing. 

Well here we go, I'm kicking this off now so we can have some of our last minute model guidance discussion organized together with an overall storm thread. Plus we're about 12 hrs from this getting into the region. Western PA folks are welcome too if they want to share their obs/discussion. 

Current Obs: Clearish, 32ºF. Snowboard deployed

That might be the best the GFS has looked overall for our region with this storm.

6 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Yea, the 18z really lacked the organized intense CCB band that's going to be the determining factor for the eastern half of PA of  having widespread excessive totals come to fruition or more like what the NWS is putting out with the 7-12" warnings. Still tremendous differences in the short range guidance. Check out the RGEM, the Mid-Atlantic folks probably fainted. 

I retract my RGEM comment for now, I was looking at 12z. 18z hasn't ran yet. But still, a tremendous difference. This is why CTP is playing the slow but steady game with this.. although probably should've had the watches expanded more early today. 

7 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Nam shows how one small change can effect totals a lot.

Yea, the 18z really lacked the organized intense CCB band that's going to be the determining factor for the eastern half of PA of  having widespread excessive totals come to fruition or more like what the NWS is putting out with the 7-12" warnings. Still tremendous differences in the short range guidance. Check out the RGEM, the Mid-Atlantic folks probably fainted.