MAG5035

Meteorologist
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Posts posted by MAG5035


  1. 5 hours ago, pasnownut said:

    Thanks for the updates Mike.  I'm thinking the white potential is still a Rt 6 and NE "event" and based on dynamics, it would be elevation driven with white rain in valleys and coating -2 or 3 for best spots Bradford-Susquehanna counties.  I'm guessing I get a slushy 1-2 in Gaines.  What's your thinking?  Any further shift south, and I'd think maybe far NE poconos would be jackpot for any appreciable snows, while we get light snow at end further NW.  

    The progressive pattern kind of limits the potential. If we end up with the further south track, it'll likely be because it ended up with a more progressive storm and you don't have as much time to get much of a changeover. Zeta runs out in front of the closed 500mb low, and the weakening 500mb low slides east just under us and doesn't really phase with the northern branch. This is a really big early season snowstorm if these things phased together with the cold available nearby, but we're too progressive. I think that far northern part of PA does change over at the end but probably the inch or less variety slushy accumulation.. pretty much your guess. 


  2. I think the whole subforum is basically locked into the washout Thur into early Friday for at least an inch or so. The only question now with the rainfall is how much of PA sees the more excessive 2+ totals, which is likely going to hinge on how far the remnant low of Zeta presses north before getting arced eastward. This morning's WPC map really knocked that down from yesterday.. with only the southern tier below the turnpike seeing 2" or more now. They seem to be factoring more heavily the GFS/GEFS in that makeup. I personally expect a lot of 1.5-2" type amounts in the subforum, with perhaps the far NW near an inch. If Zeta gets high enough and tracks just south of the Mason-Dixon line, that would likely send it's swath of more excessive rainfall rates directly associated with the tropical system itself into a good portion of southern PA. 

    Flash flood guidance is through the roof, and thus we'd need a widespread 4"+ rainfall in 6 or 12hrs to see any notable issues in that department. We'd be hard pressed to see that even if Zeta sent it's swath of heaviest precip right through the heart of C-PA. Either way, this will be a very beneficial rainfall. 

    xhr6-1.thumb.png.707eb6c74816cec09eec8ec951388199.png

     

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  3. Well, the way too early look at the 12km NAM looks fun. 984mb low sitting dead center on the NJ coastline at 84hrs with a changeover starting in NW PA hr 78 and by 84 is showing approx 2/3rd of PA changed or mixing. And that's after a basically PA-wide 2"+ of rain has fallen. Def in the Euro camp with the souped up coastal low (though 18z Euro run wasn't quite as wound up). All normal NAM disclaimers aside, I do like to see what it's looking like when a storm is just getting into the edge of it's range in comparison to especially the Euro. 

    Here's the kind of snow accumulation makeup we're seeing via the latest Euro ensemble probs. It's quite a sold snow signal for NY state/VT/NH and into a good bit of southern New England. Showing the probs of 1+ in 24 hrs, which shows how far things could reach with a potential changeover.

    ecmwf-ensemble-avg-east-snow_24hr_ge_1-4124000.thumb.png.1aee24d6e310235af2369001139de9bb.png

    I will mention that there are half decent 3"+ probs down to about US 6 in the northern tier of PA, those probs and the 6"+ ones focus on NY State/VT/NH/northern MA/southern ME. Couple 12+ probs show just in the Adirondacks and also Green&White Mountains. So to simplify, the Euro ensembles are liking a general 4-8" type storm centered in those aforementioned northeastern locations. The 18z GEFS is similar placement wise, just simply less overall since that op and ensemble have been less amped. 

     


  4. I see the Euro op continues to show the potentially snowier solution, which is certainly on the table for the north central counties and possibly the Laurels as well. A quick look at things shows the Euro/Euro ensemble has a notably sharper 500mb trough than the GFS/GEFS and thus a much deeper surface low. Pattern is somewhat progressive, and that probably limits the amount of phasing where we'd see something much wilder in the wintry department here. But either way, I think even a compromise of that guidance would support a solid chance of flakes in the C-PA high ground towards the end of this late week system. The chances look a lot better further up into the NEUS, with even the immediate interior of southern New England showing solid snow on both models. 

    Seeing snow nearby or even some flakes here at the house to end October would be nice.. although I'm eyeing up the big time rainfall potential being presented with an already sizable mid-latitude system on its own PLUS yanking up Zeta into it. It's one of those setups that could stop the immediate short term effects of our drought in its tracks. 

    122481108_3624533930931001_6698741966902208550_o.thumb.png.7449da9fdf8fec3717756041676f0c65.png

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  5. Becoming more evident on the models that the bigger ticket storm system this coming week is starting to show in the Thur/Fri timeframe over seeing much precip early week with the weaker waves running the jet through PA. Also becoming evident is this system is presenting a Northeast snowfall potential. Both GFS and Euro showing a drawn out, possibly two part system with the front part of the overall system providing the much needed rainfall we all need and the second part associated with a robust closed 500mb low and increasingly available cold bringing more rainfall and a changeover to snow somewhere in the NE dependent on track. I posted the GFS having the snow into the higher areas of C-PA the other day and tonight the Euro has it while the GFS is on a more northern track attm that gives the interior Northeast from NY state north a pretty decent early season snow. Both indicate tropical shenanigans from the Gulf that may charge things up more.. hopefully in the rainfall department. 

    I'd look for any snow threat to be of the elevational variety of course, with the Laurel's/N Central/Poconos the favorites if we get the track we need... but here we go. We're at a D4-6 event now, not out in fantasy land. 

    Euro:

    ecmwf-deterministic-east-instant_ptype-4070000.thumb.png.e5ef369f1c9ad1af05f846dfe149a263.pngecmwf-deterministic-pennsylvania-total_snow_10to1-4102400.thumb.png.76cc16adce714be83e0ab2fb4b5b6f64.png

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  6. 3 hours ago, Superstorm said:


    Wow, I guess areas that got out of fog a d drizzle really shot up.
     

    I pulled my window AC's for the winter a couple weeks ago when we were getting morning frost on the daily. Kinda regretting that yesterday and today lol.

    Also, how about the 12z GFS ftw with the wintry Halloween in the central counties? It even snows in Bradford with the Tuesday wave of precip. Probably pressing cold too much, but everything's been showing a major battleground temp-wise. The -NAO period we had didn't stick for long, and we're working a -PNA (ridge axis off the Pac coast).. thus the eastern ridging and not much press southeastward of what is some pretty wintry stuff in the north-central... soon to be diving even deeper in the central US. Models seem to differ a good bit in pattern progression later next week, so that will be something to watch. Winter's not too far off. 

     


  7. Settled into a pretty decent steady rain here as precip has finally blossomed. Short/near term guidance doesn't seem to be seeing the heavy band in the Laurels and steady precip in the adjacent counties (AOO-UNV corridor) very well. Probably some pretty heavy rain under that area in Somerset County aided with the S/SE flow upsloping into the ridges and some of this enhancement may work into the ridge and valley region overnight I-80 south into the Sus Valley. Still doesn't look like the LSV sees the widespread 2"+ type deal that seemed like a certainty but should still generally see 0.5-1.0" with some higher amounts in spots. Unfortunately for our north-central, the heavier rain doesn't look interested in making much press above I-80... with some lighter rainfall instead. Once to the US 6 corridor in the central, there might be little if any rain.  


  8. The Sus Valley and most of the southern tier look okay for this event but that north central portion of PA in the D2 drought area aren't looking all that great for getting the type of rainfall that is really needed there after pretty much the whole area had looked pretty good for a region wide 1-2" rainfall a few days ago. 12z GFS/Euro darn near take PIttburgh and SWPA out of the whole thing and really reduces the central (JST/AOO/UNV). Given radar trends of the initial rainfall edging toward the mason-dixon line, I'd say that's a bit extreme as Pitt and central region should get into that eventually this eve. Really don't know what to think of the globals really pushing southeast with this. They could be lowballing some considering what should be high PWATs/very efficient rainfall via tropical connection (Delta remnants) and a nice Atlantic easterly fetch via a 1030ish high setting up to our north. I think everyone in the region will see rain, it's just a matter of how much and how far into central PA some of the more soaking rain gets. 

    Having discussed the event at hand, I'd like to throw out some thoughts about the pattern we're about to get into and some winter thoughts/concerns. The NAO/AO is heading solidly negative in the D6-10 and possibly staying there for a time. The mid into late month period def looks to favor below average, with today's GFS looking more like mid-late November on D6-10. A pattern like that has been at a premium the last few years, so seeing it emerge in mid-October is fairly encouraging for possibly seeing this regime show up once we get into the winter.

    When I posted in August some really early thoughts on the upcoming winter, my concern was not so much whether or not the cold will be around but moisture and that thinking hasn't changed. We're seeing the continuation of an overall dry regime getting deep into the fall now, with this current event being of a tropical origin and not a typical mid-latitude cyclone. ENSO is looking like it's going to be a player as we have a pretty solid La Nina going, with last weeks number at -1.1ºC in Nino 3.4. Typical Nina pattern favors a northern branch storm track over Pac NW with limited southern stream influence (dry California coast). With the base setup like that, downstream blocking via the NAO becomes more important than usual to anchor an eastern trough and to capitalize on more limited opportunities for phasing a coastal. Generally, I expect our winter events to be northern branch heavy this season.. but if we have a good pattern alignment we can put together some solid events (4-6" type) and clippers which pretty much didn't exist in our region last winter. I don't usually put together an outlook but I'll throw out that I think snowfall will be in the 75-100% of average range, with the Laurels perhaps having the best opportunity for an average season with what I see is a better season than the last few for LES/upslope in that region. 

    Now this could be worse if we get into a Nina type setup that drives a lot of eastern ridging (dominant MJO 4-5-6, for example), but either way this season will likely be a lot better compared to pretty much a rock bottom winter last year. There's also the 95-96 option on the table if we do lock in an extended -NAO/-AO during the front half of the winter.

    Think winter's still far off? This was the GFS hr 180 today.

    gfs-deterministic-conus-instant_ptype-3065600.thumb.png.294336315dfff64585000e7fafab18d7.png 

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  9. 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

    I think the line of showers has advanced about 10 miles to the east over the past 5 hours. At this rate, it will reach the river Thursday. 

    It should advance into the Sus Valley later on this evening and into the overnight hours, and it does appear there's also some stuff developing from the south starting to come up into York/Lancaster counties on TBWI radar. 


  10. A bit of a sluggish start to things early this morning but a nice rainfall now ongoing. It's actually been quite heavy at times the last hour. Overall, this should hopefully help the worst parts of central PA in terms of the D2 drought bullseye that has popped up in the last couple weeks.

    416497294_ScreenShot2020-09-29at11_26_54AM.thumb.png.a73d6bc769cafb18a5dbe6e6f09006ab.png

     

    13 hours ago, canderson said:

    Our beloved radar is back online.  

    Finally, Historic CCX has returned just in time for this rain today. Same can't be said for LWX radar which could be out through October 16th now. Good thing such an extended outage didn't happen in the dead of winter for the Mid-Atlantic gang with a big snow event coming in or during a more active time of the year for severe weather.

    Quote
    KLWX WSR-88D radar is out of service until on or about October 16.
    UPDATE 3
    Sept 29th 2:50 P.M
    
    The KLWX (Sterling, VA) WSR-88D outage, which began on September
    20, 2020, will continue and remain out of service until on or
    about October 16, 2020.
    
    On Saturday, technicians from the NWS Radar Operations Center
    (ROC), based in Norman, Oklahoma, determined that a primary
    component for turning the radar antenna, the bull-gear, needs
    replacement. This repair will require 12,000 to 15,000 pounds of
    equipment and a six-person team from the ROC to restore the radar.
    At this time, the team anticipates repairs being completed on or
    about October 16, 2020.
    
    During the downtime, adjacent supporting NWS radars include:
    Dover DE (KDOX), Mt. Holly NJ (KDIX), Pittsburgh PA (KPBZ),
    State College PA (KCTP), Charleston WV (KRLX), Blacksburg VA (KFCX), 
    and Wakefield VA (KAKQ).
    
    For a radar mosaic loop for the region:
    
    https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/northeast.php
    
    Further updates about the situation will be issued as information
    becomes available. Thank you for your understanding during this
    extended outage.
    
    Point of Contact:
    
    Christopher Strong
    email: [email protected]
    office: 703-996-2223

     

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  11. 37 minutes ago, canderson said:

    Today’s partly sunny and 81 forecast has given way to heavy clouds, drizzle and 68. Wonder what’s happen8g for these forecasts to bust so badly this week.

    Likely the influence of the remnants of Beta and the southerly/southeasterly flow that has persisted. You can see the low level swirl on satellite just off the coast this afternoon and the clouds hanging tough in eastern PA.

    https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Mid_Atlantic-truecolor-96-1-100-1&checked=map-glm_flash&colorbar=undefined

    38 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

    After a great day in Annapolis, came home late last night to rain. I was shocked.

    It's still raining.

    The only radar that can even see anything in any of the Sus Valley is TBWI, which is a short range radar. CTP mentioned yesterday about waiting on parts for CCX that should arrive very soon. They must be on backorder cuz CCX is still out lol. And LWX radar is having some kind of a more significant issue. Tamaqua probably has better coverage from BGM's radar than the whole LSV attm. The showers your observing are low topped stuff that DIX (Mount Holly) and DOV (Dover) would never see. Although looking at Dover's radar shows the same kind of moist southerly/southeasterly regime in that area that the LSV has been dealing with.

    TBWI (edge of the radar range is just catching the showers)

    254780909_ScreenShot2020-09-27at2_50_22PM.thumb.png.9c06c090ec6f00489588df4b10da6f7a.png

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  12. Tracking the rain in the lower Sus Valley is a bit difficult due to the fact that both CCX (State College) AND LWX (Sterling, VA) radars have both been offline. Haven't seen anything about CCX in their discussions but the notes on RadarScope said it was having something installed Thursday that was supposed to only have had the radar down for 12 hrs.. so don't know what's up there. LWX radar had some kind of significant failure and it was noted on their website that its down til further notice with crews assessing the 26th (today). Good thing nothing major is going on, lol. In the meantime looks like best radar to use in the Sus Valley is either Mount Holly (KDIX) or BWI's terminal doppler radar (TBWI).


  13. 22 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

    95-96 was probably the greatest Winter of my lifetime so far. It started early and ended late, and delivered 77 inches of snow to Harrisburg.

    I remember it as a more front ended winter back this way, starting with that mid November storm that was even bigger than the 2018 storm. There was a couple impressive cold shots in early Feb and early March but it was Nov-Jan when we got just absolutely rocked by snow. And honestly being 9-10 years old that winter I remember the snow and the '96 blizzard to a degree but the one thing that I remember vividly in that winter was the flood. How it literally took away 90% of that gigantic snowpack in just a night with warm temps and torrential rain and caused all that mess and by lunchtime it was teens/20s snowing and everything froze back up while everything was still flooded. But yea, after the flood there wasn't really any noteworthy storms...at least here. I might have been suppressed out of some stuff in February before it warmed up second half of that month. 

    At any rate looking at the KPSU obs.. a whopping 77.4" of the observed 97.7" at the Walker Building Nov-March came prior to the Jan '96 flood. By month it was Nov - 23.4", Dec- 17.1". Jan - 41", Feb - 5.1" and March - 11.1". Thats nuts, even November on it's own pretty much about doubled up on last winter's total at KUNV (12.9") lol.

     


  14. 4 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

    Looking at the GFS and Euro MR forecasts it is entirely possible some people in PA will go the whole month with no rain (other than trace).  That is pretty impressive in a bad way. 

    They're still showing a general chance of precip near the beginning of next week but not the big phase up yesterday's 12z runs had from both ops. GFS still seemed fairly rainy near Monday on 12 and 18z runs. I do think some kind of precip event will come out of that as we appear to be heading for a pretty sizable shift in the pattern next week. 

    What the GFS/Euro are both really showing today with solid ensemble support is a big time eastern trough/western ridge in the D8-10 timeframe. We'd definitely be starting October pretty chilly if that were to come to fruition. 


  15. 9 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

    83-84 looks like it was right around average with the total seasonal snowfall in Harrisburg.

    Here is a nice reference chart of the seasonal snow totals for Harrisburg since 1980 for courtesy of CTP.

     

    Don't forget our barn burner of a winter last year, CTP just put the tallies of that one on their website that other day. Look at the huge difference between even some of the north central totals vs the northern border counties (US 6 corridor). Also, I dunno where that 11" was measured in the Altoona area but maybe I'm slant sticking haha. 

    season_snow2019-2020.png.d334600f6d94868a8d7abdac9dedbd20.png


  16. Euro with a similar big ticket amplification and precip event today to the GFS.

    ecmwf-deterministic-east-precip_24hr_inch-1380800.thumb.png.29d568b6e81e4e9f9f41d6a56a1fb53b.png

     It seems like they entrain the remants of Beta (esp Euro) which looks to swirl about down in the Deep South most of the week. It still looks like a big amplification in the pattern with or without that extra charge. This is still out past D7, so obviously not getting too wound up on any details yet. Being that early next week timeframe is right near the beginning of October, we're getting to that period of the fall where we usually can see that first major system that jolts the pattern towards more of a mid-late fall regime. In the meantime, we warm up second half of the week while staying bone dry. 

     

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