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BooneWX

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Everything posted by BooneWX

  1. Even if it trends towards 2 inches of rain it just feels so dang good to be tracking something - anything.
  2. I’m chuckling because you’re 100% right - how do you split the difference between a foot of snow and a severe weather outbreak? The models are laughable at this point and the most we should take away is that the ensembles show a favorable pattern.
  3. For what it’s worth, the gfs and GEFS have been consistent with the signal for days.
  4. Another angle of that to consider: the GFS and a vast majority of its ensembles have honed in on a similar setup for days and continue to do so. It’s the only one without the major swings you described. Consistency matters.
  5. I’ll get toasted and roasted in the other thread if I say this, so I’ll say it here: the gfs is on an island but I couldn’t tell you the last time I saw the Euro have a correct solution at day 7 either. Last January’s storm, the gfs was completely on an island.
  6. It won’t be heartbreak if I don’t go ahead and set myself up for disappointment now
  7. Y’all make sure you sit down again when you look at the 12z gfs
  8. Weak cad in place, surface low over Georgia at 159
  9. We’ll see what the surface shows but this is quite the look
  10. Yea the trends didn’t go our way last night but lots of reason to remain optimistic. The pattern screams potential for the SE, and these models are still struggling to get a grip with the players on the field in this new pattern. storm? Check cold air? Check how much will it dig? TBD
  11. Impressive deepening off the coast. If it can crank that any sooner than what the GFS showed, somebody is getting blizzard conditions in the Carolinas.
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