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BooneWX

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Everything posted by BooneWX

  1. BooneWX
    As someone that grew up in the area, I second what @olafminesawsaid. I’d also recommend considering Doughton Park, the Stone Mtn area or Ennice. All do really well in these CAD escarpment events.
  2. BooneWX
    Easy to find the escarpment and South Mtn range
  3. BooneWX
    18z NAM and RDPS seem wildly different at first glance. The NAM which probably has the more sensible solution has a more pronounced low west of the apps making it to almost the Holston River before transferring. The RDPS has nothing similar. It’s showing no lower pressure area cutting and a more miller A type of setup. Obviously this is why the RDPS is likely overdone and showing absurd amounts.
  4. BooneWX
    the windshield wiper effect on the models continued overnight and now we’re back to a cold look and likely our best look in a while mid-month. Still plenty left to have hope for.
  5. BooneWX
    The Canadian will run soon. Let’s see if it doubles down or starts to come in line with the NAM.
  6. BooneWX
    Noticeable uptick from 6z as well. Quarter inch amounts in the previous cycle were very limited.
  7. BooneWX
    The Canadian temps are noticeably colder than pretty much all of the other guidance. Not saying it can’t be right but it has KHKY barely cresting above freezing at all, before crashing again as moisture exits. I’m not sure how much I believe that evolution. I’ve lived in the foothills most of my life and I’ve rarely seen similar setups last more than 6 ish hours. If you don’t have that steady fetch of cold air, the whole process is a ticking clock.
  8. BooneWX
  9. BooneWX
    Now THAT is a wedge. I have no clue where the high is positioned but those isobars scream damaging ice potential.
  10. BooneWX
    https://x.com/commoditywx/status/1742610959229755620?s=46
  11. BooneWX
    I need to print some “I hate the Pacific” t-shirts. I’d make a killing with our group and the Mid Atlantic crew.
  12. BooneWX
    Also the returns are blossoming in Alabama at this hour. Model miss??
  13. BooneWX
    We’re not out on Tuesday yet. That storm is making big trends south and now that high doesn’t look quite as transient.
  14. BooneWX
    A few hundredths of an inch of accretion from western Cleveland/Rutherford, up through the rest of the foothills into lower Va. a tenth in the mts
  15. BooneWX
    Am I remembering correctly that the Canadian models typically have a cold bias? I know the NAM does, but I feel like the Canadian suite does this sort of ice storm bell-ringing pretty often. Fram says no issues Saturday.
  16. BooneWX
    The precipitation is getting lighter and lighter as well with each model suite. That doesn’t bode well for trees and power lines.
  17. BooneWX
    Well I don’t care where we discuss things as long as the HOT LIGHT IS ON THE THREAD LIKE A KRISPY KREME AFTER 12Z
  18. BooneWX
    LETS GET IT ROLLING. I WANT THE HOT LIGHT ON AFTER 12Z LIKE WERE RUNNING A DADGUM KRISPY KREME
  19. BooneWX
    I pay attention about as well as my wife says I do.
  20. BooneWX
    If 12z comes in the same, I do vote we start a thread tho. Ya know… always good practice anyways
  21. BooneWX
    Yea I’m a bit skeptical unless the low can continue trending weaker. I’ve almost never seen an in-situ CAD produce anything more than maybe a tenth of an inch of ice. Dew points rarely verify on the low end of the scale in these events. I’m fine with all of that. If it’s not snow or even sleet, I’m not interested anyways. Nothing good about freezing rain.
  22. BooneWX
    I’m normally very skeptical about in-situ CAD setups because the dew points rarely verify on the lower scale as the models depict, but this one is starting to get interesting for the CAD region. If that low continues to look less amped and further south, I’m afraid that cad won’t be easily scoured out.
  23. BooneWX
    Heck, let a few storms cut. Like I said earlier, we have ZERO snowpack anywhere we need it to be. We’re setting up for quite a few high pressure over the top opportunities and some snow would put a cap on modifying those air masses.
  24. BooneWX
    If it were me, I’d shop the Avery county area. Ashe fits the distance you want but lacks the orientation and elevation to produce the best results from flow events. Here are some other areas in Watauga that will always do well and are lesser known: zionville, Matney, Sugar Grove, Vilas. If snow is truly a priority to you, I’d avoid Valle Crucis and anywhere east of Boone.
  25. BooneWX
    Just hang in there. It’ll be blocking and +PNA galore by Memorial Day weekend!!
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