STILL N OF PIKE
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Everything posted by STILL N OF PIKE
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I really don’t have a read on Tuesday’ish threat . I just know it’s not unusual if neither one crushes us If they don’t get inside day 5 as a hit .
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Epic season passes on sale for next year . NE value pass 555$. Gives you up to 10 days at Stowe . 414$ for adult mid week value pass
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Weenies pushing hard for Saturday .
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Saturday looks like a long shot outside GFS , I mean cmc might have been a closer miss but it was basically off Va coast at closest pass is this some kind of setup where the modeled MSLP is not really indicative of the potential if we look at H5 or something?
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Ya euro/Ukie hundreds of miles SE for any system this weekend . We still tossing gfs tickling south
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No comments in 50 mins , I was hoping to see maybe if the 18z euro looked like it was not 500 miles SE
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Find a stranger and shake their hair violently, a few flakes shall be seen
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I’m hoping the GEFS or cmc or something comes toward the gfs for Saturday . Nice warning event for some and it could tickle south
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Has big potential and I like it but to ignore the models bias to over do western heights day 8 related to Nina base state has caused lots of disappointment , doesn’t mean it has to but a reason to be cautious in addition to the time frame
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Garth would go full Michael Douglas falling down if that 12z euro clown happened
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I mean the euro can slowdown and turn NNE in toward ACK and then drift . That is ridiculous Only 8 days out but that should hold me over to 0z 3-3.5 Qpf and 3’ ok
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So are we back to tossing euro , Or is this where some want it
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Ukie looked promising early going from VA coast and curled NE as it deepened rapidly than it pushes ESE .. what is it related to H5 that makes the Ukie do that as opposed to the other guidance at 12z
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Why good sir
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Thank you
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This place would build so much character if we could have 2 of the next 3 winters be similar
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I haven’t seen Worcester airport get somewhat shafted compared to even lower elevations to their N and NNE so many times as this winter . Their relative lack of latitude in this Nina pattern has hurt them.
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So the models may have overdone western ridging For a few runs over a week out ..in a year with them continually having too high heights in SW at 7-10 day lead times related to general Nina influences . And now small differences in what’s left of a modeled PNA could determine if this is a solid moderate event or perhaps less ..thou I’m sure there is more at play here ..maybe if the vort Max was more of a beast that could make up for less of a +PNA for the area the energy traverses ?
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Ya I mean looks better for NYC , Maybe SW Ct
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Ask A.cooper
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I take it that 750 miles se of benchmark is not good , thankfully it’s on an island . Gfs looked good enough for me , 6-12 on weekend and then a slow crawling coastal two days later (which verbatim is a tad too mild for E mass but couldn’t really care )
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Maine really did get smashed . Lots of 15-17” reports . Impressed . Were rates much better from Mid level goodies
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We remain optimistic , let’s see what 0z eps does
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Keep posting
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I had locked in 20” and when I looked up 1888 I see that Nashua was just far enough west for 2 feet and since this will be a little bigger I’m thinking 25-30” can adjust up ..later
