STILL N OF PIKE

It did , 12z had a further East S vort swing too far right . This one took a much better angle for a longer snowy CCB off The coast . Unless pivotal maps at 18z aren’t comparable to COD maps at 12z

That’s gonna Happen just don’t have the far right one go too wide right and we seem good

Wasn’t 12z much more elongated on euro compared to other guidance and 18z trended elongated except for euro and rgem?

That looks much better . Low didn’t go too far right and got us in CCB faster and longer

do we have a 925 map that coincides with any of those panels Anthony

Gracias

I really can’t take any one model run seriously but trying to see any broader trends with ensembles or “camps” amongst them related to system elongating or consolidating and general track shifts

It is safer to forecast more and see less then the other way around . The public tends to rejoice when less snow falls , and complains when more does and people have unplanned delays . But at a 3 day lead time with huge differences in models it would probably be better to put out 2 maps , “if snowier models prevail , “if weaker milder storm models prevail “ I think one map is almost impossible to represent forecast / models with this low confidence and huge discrepancies

Let’s show a better S vort and a consolidated F’N system

You can see they show the upside exactly over there on there 10% max map that was posted 20 min ago . Lots of details to work out . They have not much upside over Emass thru 8pm , but those maps are a bit 2 cute we simply need a consolidated low to track like 12z gfs and many more will score hugely , seems that has been more the exception than the rule last few model runs . That 12z run would destroy their 10% potential over E mass .

Ya it’s not hard to see that for NW CT to BDL with this airmass and downsloping . Seems like a literal recipe for a gradient

hopefully they bump it up , still 60 hours to go This is a downslope elevation dandy w putrid airmass in valley BUT the box 10% map seems to say if things go right anticipate this much ..that map seems more in line to me for Union area but we shall see

They are obviously very gun shy with the idea of a a Strong CCB thru 8pm Thursday . one of the more consistent features (if there has been one ) is the N stream heavy precip over Catskills and Berks and to a lesser degree the monads and they are keying in on that . Also they probably have a good bit of continuity in their forecast and I think they would probably up elevations in NE CT and I would guess that if the CCB works out you can tack on 6-9” to that map? Where that hits Id like to see their 10% or maximum map to see their confidence level which I assume is low

The weather hotline is seeing increased call volume

Dont shoot the messenger WPC just put out a map at 4:15 that goes to 0z Wednesday the 4”> or greater 50% chance line goes from ASH to just E of ORH to Waterbury CT

18z Reggie was sexy outside 495 https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2023031118&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc= basically gives all of CT 1’ >

It’s a trend , that the S vort is gonna swing a low a few hundred miles SE of ACK now and the N stream is gonna do a lot of the lifting for W sne and C sne 12z had some Very nice looking more consolidated looks with a crushing CCB but they also seemed to be on W end of the ensembles Not sure how much further the S stream low can trend (Almost S of Nova Scotia) On 18z Gfs op and a several ensemble members of Euro/ before this elongated look doesn’t produce pretty snow maps (Many of those would keep CCB brief or just off shore ) , but aside from 12z this has been a trend for 24-30 hrs with 60 to go . I was impressed with the low position the N stream had such impressive rates out west then moving East as 5H went under us .

Maybe we can swing that first low far right S o of the Flemish cap

Nam says congrats ema and F off west of there Let’s see what another tic or two does for board mojo I want this West

Ya I’ll take that one

You realize 12z op was a tick west Of 6z 7H low more nW 850 low Ditto By 25-30 miles

Like that the 12z gfs stopped progressive ticks to Nantucket that 7H track and stall is a thing of beauty for 128/495 /RI kuchuie May have more realistic totals

In your area, Rowe mass at 1500-1800’ is another level above MPM’s old area

Let the wife know house has termites and you gotta move to west side of town at 750’

Can you post a 925 map for 72/78 hrs