STILL N OF PIKE

I don’t really think we have much clarity on a final solution , even if we have a 6 hour trend at 12z 84 -90 hours out

I would think if more of that S stream vort gets sent East initially we may get a better look and hook for ORH to S NH

F the valley, go Berks or E Catskills

Like I’ve seen on 12z models , the euro has a less consolidated S stream vort that phases compared to 0z . A piece of the energy runs East OTs Like we saw on other models. watching to see if that trends

10mb weaker than 0z at hour 78

N stream looked a hair south and S stream a bit faster thru 66

looks like lead S vort is faster/ eeeast is my guess

Well , if we take a step back ...it is pretty awesome to be able to track a system like this ..and as Ray was telegraphing for months ..he very much liked this period

Seems like a lot of trouble is with that lead southern vort and the spacing gfs seems like it split the energy from that and sucked some NW while the other just sailed East several hundred miles SE of BM Is that even plausible

Ya , I totally get it . If I couldn’t chase this I would have a different mindset . I think max ceiling is in Catskills with a earlier phase but to be honest I’d rather save the gas and see a cape track . Just want a strong storm and not some disjointed voodoo in crap airmass (which does not look favored at all, but is on table with precarious timing of phasing and progressive trends that usually present themselves last 48 hours . I mean we are still a good 3.5 days out and close to 4 for East mass for the wider right late capture

Seems like those in 128 belt are gonna wanna play with the fire of this slipping East to get that lead vort to swing wide right and then capture and pull back NW . Not a ton of wiggle room there to play with at all

Ukie is off its rocker but if you look beyond the surface , it moved toward other guidance as it had mid level lows S of Long Island Tues eve even thou it still had lead wave wide right , much more energy was closer to coast to spawn closed mid levels (S of LOng island ) as opposed to IVT look at 12z ...and then Tonite it had the later capture swell East at end

Ya not western mass per se but more like HFT-Tolland Catskills , NW CT N Berks S VT . Still lots of time to Go for this to adjust

Cmc looks decently west of GFS so far

N orh county to monads wrecked with that mid level track and over toward Rochester to gray Maine

Errr dunno . I’d widen them at 100 hrs out

If deep E flow is established longer (Less of a lead vort going wide) Catskills to E slope Berks look to have highest ceiling To me currently

Did you even look at it or just hear “close to firehouse “ Look at a map , it was garbage IVT for NY and W SNE

Do you have a map of 12 hours later

Ukie gave me .4 QPF and no snow and gave kev like 3” snow . That being said it’s below the cmc to me

Ukie was dog crap , literally

That’s great lol , but there is a limit to how much we want that lead vort swinging out . So I mean things look great , so besides the obvious , I would love to see the Ukie come back NW so I can lower my meds lol

It’s a move toward gfs which works as the 18z gfs was stronger just don’t give me a Ukie strung out solution in 24-36 hrs . That is my only concern since I will travel for this 1

I really have no confidence where this is going at this point .

Which is why the clown maps don’t go wild like other runs