STILL N OF PIKE

I’d mount it

What site do folks use for 6z euro That starts running around 6:50

WPC also uses a decent amount of continuity the models had the low mostly moving NNE/NE off Carolinas and up the coast for days and now the hook and shoot north has seemed to taken favor overnite , the angle is extremely delicate And those that are East of the Monday nite N stream sort of convergence modeled over Catskills / dacks and Berks to w monads seem to me increasingly dependent on a perfect hook and ladder track with intensity . There is a ton of uncertainty when your Counting on a wide right then hook back NNW track. So if that idea gains consensus today, counter intuitively I think there is about as high uncertainty for a forecast at day 2.5-3 as you can get , especially given temps and reliance on big lift And any further progressive ticks can = CCB in Boston harbor or over outer cape Now If the southern stream ticks North and gets a tad earlier phase and less wide right track I think that cooks eastern areas inside 495 but also would lead to more confidence because the track would be a bit more traditional and not subject to huge cuts if a hook and ladder were to go wider from here

Elevation or bust

Looking forward to evening when WPC has their Snow probs for different accumulation thresholds thru 18z and then Wednesday 0z . They like Catskills /dacks / Berks / S Vt into whites thru 12z Tuesday for greater than 6”(>50% probs) with 50% probs for 2”> On a line Manch to Wa wa to Torrington CT Nw. Albeit that is very early in period for areas E given the later start time on most overnite guidance

Some crushers , some whiffs

6z Op Gfs basically mimics euro ens now don’t tick anymore next 72 hours and we are golden ....can’t afford anything more progressive at that angle of backing in

Looks to be snowing half decently at Wa wa . Would not be shocked for some elevated places in ORH Near 1k to see 3” or so with some mid level lift

Radar looks cool .. given the closed mid level lows ..I’m not surprised there are some lift so far north also weird embedded band around Boston that is drifting WSW ...

Woke up to use bathroom lol . Had to check models . I’m pretty certain , This is really Still up in the air . Its clear the lead S vort has kept trending a bit SE for last 24 hours and I haven’t seen and end to that completely at 6z , this has also led to a later start across most guidance for those EOR. Most of this season things have not been nailed down and locked at 72 hours and I don’t see this as being any different. I think a (>980 MSLP) N stream dominant system is likely in the cards or more of a too late phase , this is simply due to the trend in S stream that I would hedge continues . If that trend ends then I could see a 0z euro solution that is favorable for a good deal of the forum but that is a thread the needle type of set up, *especially given the airmass and BL temps , but certainly can occur . I would Think least likely at this juncture is a reversal of S stream trend in a significant fashion

Nammy destroys pocanos Catskills amd was pounding CT /RI to pike at end of run curls up just off Central jersey and getting captured

I have the same affinity for canes and huge breaking waves , in addition to heavy snow . Not certain why

baiting

Thanks , I knew it ..was more just inferring this was an elevation event and you should Be “money”

In Bridgeport I would focus on my golf swing

Was waiting for a weak northern stream with a fast and progressive southern stream , I was thinking it would = IVT but maybe it helped ? Anyone

Appears the flow with that southern stream vort is almost E/ESE between Alabama/Georgia / and S Carolina coast ..energy just sort of dives in That direction and doesn’t link up as well , is there less ridging modeled ahead of it

Elevation

Can the southern vort just trend to zero phase? I mean if today’s trends continued I imagine there would be a fine line at some point where it just doesn’t phase at all

Looks weak , little bit of s vort phases rest goes out to sea . That is a trend and a smaller but high QPF system heads toward RI

Nam looked like it was gonna crush W CT

Nam

A small sick part of me wants to see nam go to Bermuda

Ya I don’t really see big timer snows around 495 But I could see 12” taters if things go almost perfect there .

Probably gonna need elevation We should do a wellness check on Jay tommorrow am . I can see quite the difference between W side of town at 800’ and his area