STILL N OF PIKE

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm always a candidate for those.

Post it.

I did in text 

CT torches as well 

Reggie clown lookin like ASH to Ray double Tobin splash 

Ya the 3km ends Sunday eve So it’s sorta useless (more than usual ) ?

What year was that system 

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

wasn't the "It Ain't Happening James" storm one that had a strong meridional component and we thought the rockies ridge was too far east and it would be out to sea?  Or was that Boxing Day?  I can't remember....

My point being that in extreme meridional set ups, if we get a fairly small adjustment the result can be very different.

I’d like to know as well 

Nam kuchie went large for many 

Nammy looks like it crosses very close to BM

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep. I think Tip is correct it’s always been there to some extent…it’s just gotten worse. 
 

Anyways, I digress. I agree with Tip that there is some “interesting” potential from 1/30ish to the first week of February. It’s not favored, but some of these extremely meridional solutions with potent shortwaves riding down the east side of that ridge (almost a pseudo omega block) can blow up with little warning. They aren’t necessarily events that you track from a full week out. Partially because the source of said shortwaves are basically in a data-void area…or at least in an area where satellite data gets very distorted due to the very low tropopause up near the pole. These aren’t originating out in the pacific like usual. 

in my experience models seem to usually overdue the extremely meridinol solutions , as I’m usually focused on the east side where the energy dives south , i think I recall these more prevalent in the 5-8 day range and  than they become less powerful or “southward diving” or as we get inside 5 days . I wish I could articulate this better 

Is there anything to look for that usually coincides with these actually becoming that meridonal, regardless of wether it tracks perfectly for us 

Nammy

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its largely due to social media IMHO....its fostering an increased proclivitry towards iimpulsivity and instant gratification, which is inimical to critical thinking and conducive to an increased tendency to make perfunctory judegements.

All media 

Hype/ twist for emotional response / attention = ratings 

So there is a flood of BS / and if you are not manipulating or twisting some headline to induce a added emotional response (and higher ratings) that is probably seen as lost potential revenue / clicks etc and add in on top of that the politicalization of the day creeping into everything 

I don’t think folks realize the layers of impact this has on ability and desire  to critical think , reason , have a respectful convo and  even figure out or trust what  ..is goin on ha

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Eh....I wouldn't say the playing field is leveled for my area yet....one event doesn't attone for a several year bone-fest.

I think SW CT has been boned much worse than NE mass as a % of climo goes on a five year basis 

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would leap into the Merrimack and have an EMT on stand by to revive me only so that I could leap again.

I’d swing by , drug you and throw you in the Corsica as i head NW into monads or to lake Winni. 

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Congrats on a colder rain. Get out there and enjoy it.

Cranmore is white 

We await the 12z nam…

33.5 in Nashua . Busted cold thou doesn’t seem like a win lol

On Mt wash auto road temp profile . Coolest layer is 2500’ , and then it pops to 32.4 at 5300’ and then cools again at summit 

Snowing on cranmore mtn. Cam

Snowing at wildcat . But 32F at 2k in late January 

4 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

6z EPS

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

Do you have the kuchie sir for the coastal plain 

WPC best 4” probs are still over Catskills , berks and N orh county and made a modest (20 mile or so shift north ) into S Monads as well 

As is the case with 95% of our systems last two winters , elevation and being away from coast is favored and ratios will be dicey to determine for CP 

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’d feel pretty good for ORH county getting decent snow….495 belt is prob decent as well but a bit more uncertain due to elevation not being as high. 
 

Kevins area is also a bit more uncertain but due to midlevel temps rather than elevation. 

Glad he kept his pants on so far 

Do models typically get a good handle on confluence by 72 hours , and is it now more about Perturbations in W coast ridging and SW strength that determines mid level track / temps or do we know exactly which is weighing more 

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

If you're a winter storm enthusiast ... you may want to pay attention to how the 31st/3rd period modulates over future runs...

Having  a recurring theme in the runs ( not the 00z GGEM, too ) of a powerful dive E of JB, while still loading ( altho less, still positive) +PNA tendencies across the continent ... I mean, it's just not dismissible quite yet. 

This was always a 24th thru the 5th period of interest fwiw -

Def agree here, instead of focusing on periods that aren’t very forecastable, the period you mentioned has shown some potential as we get closer to it. 
 

After that ..maybe we can hit 70 around Feb 7 give or take , seems like the ceiling is there for a couple days of a very warm period , thou who knows how that will break and or if NE corner is immune to it .

Not much more than a coin flips faith in mid February turning out better than average pattern but there is obviously cause for optimism , esp as long as model agreement doesn’t  delay it 

All work and no play makes scooter a dull boy 

Good trends tonite 

Decent spread on euro ens 

Centered 125 miles east of 0z ens for Monday 1pm. More progressive members 

5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

ya rain changing to snow with no dynamics and 33-34 degrees wont accumulate most places outside heavy bands and hills 

 

Looks like Garbage . Let’s see ensembles