STILL N OF PIKE

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yeah. I wasn’t expecting much if anything before noon or so 

He basically didn’t even mention Worcester county elevations . (Berks and S VT )ORH airport to you looks good for a few 10-2pm

16 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I mentioned that yesterday. Gene Simmons

Good call

6 minutes ago, 512high said:

yup, not feeling this one either.....

Temple to mason and west looks good lol

Awesome ice covering trees at Crotched mountain all evening into 11pm. Trails were spring like but interesting the trees above 1800’ were solid shimmering ice . Somewhere over 1/4 inch as many branches hung down . 
 

Was there for midnite madness 

Went skiing tonite at Crotched mtn . Was surprised to see the trees shimmering w branches hanging heavy in decent ice 

The ice line was approx 1800’ at 2k it looked awesome 

1 minute ago, tamarack said:

Forecast has been edging things north over the past 2 days.  GYX' POP from the most recent 3 forecast periods here went from 30% to 50%, now 70%.

They trend looks done since 12z 

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

That’s an unreal push of WAA rain for southern Ct 1.0” rain in 6 hours then it’s pretty much done 

Gonna be close in the hills down there 

Reggie better S of Pike and worse N of route 2

same trend 

CT/RI do well (away from immediate coast )

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

How much if that 1” is frozen…I wonder? 

I think that’s a good question lol 

Head to Norfolk 

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

18z nam is better Monday morning in central and eastern areas.

Nam is 1” QPF pike south 

.5 QPF line rides NH/Ma border 

11 minutes ago, weathafella said:

The elephant in the room:  temperatures are well above normal in NNE to the Canadian border.  Not what sne wants to see the day before a storm.

I think That was modeled well . We needed rates for first 1/2 of tubs anyway . This thing just never seems to organize well anymore . Many runs had a 6 hour period of .5+ QPF after 0z for areas N of pike into SNH . That appears gone as does the CCB so lol ..we take em down and see if this reverses 

Euro is flaccid outside of isothermal WAA thump for S and SW areas of SNE 

tracked for days and it craps out on QPF couple days  and is basically shreddy and weak over 18 hrs for Ne mass to Ash . Was solid inch for a while now it’s like .7 with no 3 hour period above .20

them are the breaks It appears 

Im hoping folks in CT and RI score on WAA thump 

I will be impressed if any map remotely gets this correct 

12z HREF mean has 6”+ for the watch areas 

And 4-6” from Fenway and a few miles south all the way back to nearly parallel MA/CT border 

12z HREF mean and max show the difference for most if Part 1 blows or blows up 

The mean is weak sauce and 1-2 for N CT and 2-4 for Berks and 1-2 N of pike with exception of SE NH as at this point run only goes to 0z Monday 

the max shows a big 4-6 stripe for Central CT across  center RI and then a bit less north to you get N of Ma pike and basically hits Berks and ORH and W Middlesex hard 6-8 thru late Sunday eve

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

This reminds me of last March 13th(I mean nobody is getting 30” like Dave and Ineedsnow did then, with this POS) but that one was just rain, and then white rain here when it transitioned.  Same crap airmass idea is what is bringing that one to mind. 
 

And Just like that one from last March, a coating to a half inch perhaps here would be what I think happens.  Unless the NAM has a clue, and we go isothermal, but that’s a long shot imo. 

Pray for a big ole WAA thump or bust 

I think you have a decent shot for one 

Just now, ineedsnow said:

that map looks exactly like this one for a different storm pick and choose lol

So they have a few accumulation templates lol 

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Gfs is a nice Blue Hill to Foxboro look. 

Gfs blows 3-5” on kuchie region wide 6” in berks

but i do realize this is war as far as backyard weather 

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

there out of edibles 

Looks like they finished them off making that map 

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Def underdone in N ORH county 

Those Berkshire channels probably act like N orh county is so far away they don’t even care to try

6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Beware the warm tongue.  In this case, the tongue is bigger than Gene Simmon’s

Doesn’t appear so . 12k nam says not much tongue action in gives front end thump to areas south of pike . That would seem to contrast things . 12k nam would pick up a big tongue , no? Just need big rates bc the airmass is garbage Sunday 

Oh boy haha 

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Better on the front end in SNE on the ICON 

Do you have any gut feeling on this system 

what’s the 12z KDENDY say 

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There’s a lot of bust potential in this system. Both directions too…though the downside bust potential is greater imho. But there’s also some scenarios where I could see a foot-plus over interior if things work out well. 

Yup 

I can’t even imagine having to put out a forecast . Given that I believe there is usually more forgiveness overdoing accumulation (as long as at least advisory falls ) then saying 2-4” and people getting 8” with outages lol . Still the smart lean seems conservative for now given uncertainty’s over both parts 

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Because the systems bringing it are trash?

I mean ..there was a ferocious WAA Thump in NW NJ S interior NY and Extreme west CT a couple weeks ago but models always seem to struggle with it . That system sure wasn’t crap .