STILL N OF PIKE

Ray will like this but I can see a path for the ole Merrimack valley screwgie with a nice cut off in precip around Boston on progressive euro if confluence is aggressive . 

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I guess DIT won't like it

I underestimated the ability for confluence to keep shredding this 

So weak sauce thanks to attenuation/ confluence ?

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya Scott’s in a bad place…very very dark place for that poor guy. 

Reminds me a little of the shining 

Can we update the title of this thread to add that Scott’s sanity rests in the hands of this event and things don’t look great 

WPC probs updated last hour clearly favor elevations of SNE on 4”+ prob which is not necessarily news but they are centered S of NH line 

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

There was a storm over a foot on January 8-9, 1988 at ORH and then we didn’t get another double digit storm until December 1992. Almost 5 years. 
 

If it can happen at 1000 feet over interior MA over 3 decades ago, it can happen a lot longer elsewhere. 

Were those years overly dry during winter ?

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah sure, if the CCB is tracking over NNE then it’s a moot point. But I’m talking if this is mostly as depicted on the synoptics….it would quickly be a paste storm over the interior after brief rain to start. 

I was more just trying to keep Kevin’s pants from coming off 

Near 50 , feels great outside . Snow melting fast in Sunny spots . Fine by me - not like I cross country ski in town 

1 minute ago, cut said:

I literally have less than 3 inches on the year here in Trumbull. Last year I think I had one storm in which I used the snow blower - just to use it and keep it in shape - I think it was 3 inches and like 10 on the season last year. This is in all honesty the 4th or 5th lame year (ratter) in a row here in south Trumbull.

Geezus man 

1 minute ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Maybe he doesn't wanna live in the middle of nowhere? Lol

It’s almost always the wife, hate to see it

Happened to our Boston native now in Simsbury 

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It looks plenty cold over the interior once it gets going. Might start as a little rain but 925s are like -2 to -3….no chance of rain for him when it wetbulbs to that profile. 

Unless it bumps north another 60 or so ?

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

As others have said, he’s about the only person that has skirted any kind of regression over the last decade. Always far enough in any direction to do okay.

Greta is Coming for him in the 2030’s

So it’s clear we have to Sacrifice Dave 

I wonder if NW RI is a sneaky spot for this event assuming it comes far enough north 

3 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

End of NAM

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

Storm is just sort of getting crushed ESE as confluence picks up over SE Canada on many of these runs . The mid levels open up as it traverses upper mid Atlantic to S of New England on many 

The 0z euro seemed like a best case and actually strengthened mid levels last moment and sort of pivoted slowed as it did 

I would say it would take a small miracle to get Maine good with this unless confluence is way over modeled 

For Friday for NNE looks like it could be a challenge to see where the snows fall . Models seem torn between a mostly Maine deal from Sunday River east and North to euro and nam showing accumulations  much further south . HREF is basically Wildcat to Sunday River east and north in toward Baxter state park 

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i'm just basing it off of the general pattern progression... the one on the weeklies makes sense

you retract the Pacific jet and it leads to ridging over the WC and AK via an Aleutian Low. there's excess momentum leading to a trough over the SW US. that trough is expelled via the -EPO forming... that trough gets replaced by a +PNA

the SW US trough connects with the N Atl trough that's already present... this then leads to a E US trough as well as wave breaking that assists the development of a -NAO. at that point, you are left with the pattern on the weeklies

are the weeklies correct? who knows, they could absolutely be wrong. I can tell you that the progression they're showing makes a lot of sense, though 

I can’t argue with your meteorological reasoning , and I know when many  pros post like this they fully comprehend the limited probability at these leads times but they have the skill to identify why it makes sense and it’s a intelligent discussion that is certainly warranted , I just think the general audience has or still takes away (bc they want to)  a mistaken amount of confidence bc they don’t comprehend that ..even when it’s always couched in “feeling good or higher confidence “ they may conveniently forget that is  *Relative confidence*  to what can be forecast at these lead times . 

14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

 

I'm pretty optimistic. this could be the best period many in the MA and NYC have had in quite some time. just want to give it another week to get those changes within a more meaningful timeframe

You strike me an optimist ..

Since nobody in the world  has shown much skill forecasting more than 3 weeks away  I would always temper expectations when things looks good 15 days away 

I know you know this and I know you know meteorology but sometimes I get the idea that you are much more confident at extends leads than warrants . But quite honestly that could also be semantics and me reading into your posts incorrectly . 

I do think a exceptional  period is possible , and I believe if things did ever line up and we got a prolonged active NE trough the ceiling is extremely high 

I’m certainly not buying a multi week very good pattern for mid Feb to Early March , I’d say sure it’s possible..but more likely to me Is a favorable 10-12 day period if things break semi decently . 
 

It’s often sunny in Philadelphia at Day 14+ and folks like to extrapolate that into their ideal multi week goodness, extremely skeptical of anything very good hanging around that long , gonna need a lot to fall in place for a prolonged period 

Based on climo CNE and NNE have best chance (obviously) (Dentrite North) but also as long as we are active there will be a shot that SNE gets to average with good timing (NW of 95) and doesn’t need a very good multi week pattern to do that 
 

Bos to me is a very long shot 

WPC has this as a S of Rte2 system that favors most QPF  SE mass and cape with a low 125 miles S of BM Monday @12z but E flow enhancing elevations S of rte 2

looks like tons of E flow into SE mass but not quite  cold enough as probs for winter precip above .25 QPF is 10-30% for S SNE with Catskills , berks orh 30-50% probs for greater than .25 of winter QPF

should update in few hours 

Crushed 

Se mass buried 

Just now, H2Otown_WX said:

Oh, I was expecting a clean whiff. I wasn't trying to say I expect to beat VT lmao

Well within the goalposts 

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I know we don’t really care out here but I came across how much this riled wx Twitter up. I can think of a few folks that would write like this.  

 

What Mets are “debating “ this ?  Besides the band Tool (enema) Turn it up 

36 in Lexington , 33 in KBED still plain rain meh