STILL N OF PIKE

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The CCB in general just doesn’t look that good anywhere right now on a consistent basis. There’s been runs where it does but many where it doesn’t. So I think I’m remaining conservative until that part is ironed out. 

So generally both parts look shaky 

why is WAA so difficult for models to handle well 

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAMs were kind of meh outside the “thump”.

It was utter garbage 

take em down for NE mass 

 further from WAA and weaker CCB trends across guidance 

maybe something changes 

More garbage for NE mass on 12z nam kuch 3-4”

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Front end thump will have a say in accums…if we can pound S/S+ for 3-4 hours late tomorrow before the CCB organizes, then we’d be much more likely to achieve 6-10 in the 495 belt. If it fizzles like the Euro shows and we just have to wait for CCB, then I’d go more like 3-6 here. 
 

For a clear example of this , folks just need to look at the 6z and 12z runs of the HRRR (both have extended hours )

Go to reflectivity and loop for the day Sunday 

6z run was a massive WAA push that wasn’t shredded and was longer lasting and expansive even to the North  , The result was CT and RI were buried on Thump and really everyone did well

12z run was a weaker disjointed WAA push and it didn’t really amount to anything other than 1-2” in hills of CT and nada really north of Union 

In between those extremes would be the 6z euro solid several hour thump but not as expansive and confined to CT and Later into Eve RI

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro wasn’t great in SNE.

Was much better WAA thump colder for CT into PVD

No posts of The euro clowns at 6z

Worst kuchie clown map for NE Mass I’ve seen as most of CT does better 

gives most of CT 3-5 by 0z and PVD 3-4” by 3z . Crumbs for NE mass .

So def colder and  for S SNE on WAA thump which is primarily union CT south 

Orh hills and monads catch up a little 

12 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I am having visions of the events where we go to bed with the anticipating a changeover to snow and getting up in the morning to see 1/2' of snow on the grass and wet roads.

I’d say it’s possible IF the euro warms more at 925 during the 8pm-3am time frame when it has most precip falling . I would not favor that . 
 

I think the usual wobbles inside last 30 -36 hours need to be watched closely 

1 hour ago, Prismshine Productions said:

WPC % 2/4/8/12

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

That is overly bullish . It’s basically in line with box map. 4-6” Nw side of 495 2-4” 128-495 and 6-8” In monads . It also shifted north into S VT and Monads as it was prior posting best into Berks and N orh county . Big flags for lower elevations as 925’s have tickled a tad milder on some guidance and by the time they cool it’s more of a parting shot 

euro op just need to look at a QPF comparison from route 2 north into CNE . Significantly less by about 1/4 to 1/3. Who knows

10 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Keep in mind the 12z started the run with a bunch imaginary snow already accumulated in central NH.

Actually when I looked at QPF this was more juiced than 12z

the 925 temps were a touch milder at 0z Monday but I was surprised clown weren’t juicier given a bit more QPF

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

It might be the most realistic. 

Possible but I don’t think I trust it here . Now if other models join sure but not currently

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yeah. I was hoping for a bit better. Still gets a lot of peeps warning levels. 

I think unless 7H tightens up even a little (remains closed when passing by/ under) it will be on weaker side of guidance 

Kuchie version even keeps you at 5-6”

Still pretty crappy I’d say 

7H is closed then open and back and forth . Weak mid levels comparatively 

Gfs is NW a bit ( it was so far SE this was basically no shock ) not that juicy but def better than 18z for many 

Better WAA Thump for Most of W CT 

Let’s see if the GFS fouls another one off its nuts in the big game 

Some impressive gradients yikes 

Power issues for 495 corridor  . Ray flickering ?

 Now batting Reggie 

Oooo reggie

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

3k delivering the midlevel goods up here. Looks pretty slotty and showery in SNE after the initial weak WAA.

Would it shock folks if this S stream tickles more north , if confluence allows 

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Scooter?

That would be a good meme 

Scott in a leather jacket on a Harley with you on back seat holding tight 

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Lol . There is a lot of beer in my belly tonight  . Love it . Toe tapping 

Say Hi to the fellas for me 

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Boston had 16” of rain and 6.6” of snow at this point in ‘57-58 (similar type ENSO too). 

 

I think ‘78-79 was very wet too but not a ton of snow…what was terrible about that winter is it was cold too but the storms didn’t cooperate. 

The back to back year part seems “impressive” to me for the areas that are doing it again after last year 

2 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Not necessarily,  we had many a winter where good size storms would come through as pouring rain, and then cold as soon as the storm departed. SO many times the weather Channel 7 day had snow, and you'd slowly watch the forecast maps morph to rain as the storm approached. 

My guess is you won’t find a 2 year winter period that had within 10% of total “Winter QPF” as the last 2 with so little % of it leading to accumulating snow for those areas 

I could see Dry and ratter , or even average QPF and rain mild/ cold dry but not such a high QPF winter yielding so little snow 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro still with that banded look. 

What’s up with that 

I see 40-50% probs for 8” Or greater For N Orh county into Monads and over to edge of Nashua (WPC 48 hour map ending Monday eve)

like watching those trends