STILL N OF PIKE

2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Goddamn this has been a harsh stretch. So much precip and so little snow. If you take my ‘20 ‘23 and ‘24 season to date totals and add them up, you’d get roughly what Ray put up in the last month. One tries to be sanguine and not give up, but these 2020s winters are really starting to wear thin.  

It’s amazing how bad Far southern CT has been doing for years . Single digit

What do you average …28-30”? 

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Also some of the cross-hair sigs are good in those bands. You could be rocking 15 to 1 ratios at 31-32F in that to make up for 7 to 1 ratios at beginning. 

Scott will be rocking 1:3 ratios

3 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

off hour shenanigans? 

Just a model that tends to randomly crap itself in big spots 

it’s like Jaleyn Brown trying not to commit 5 turnovers in the second half of a game 7

We are just now getting toward 48 hours out for my area

still time for S stream tickles north I think 

Just now, Torch Tiger said:

if banding blows and precip is more showery/convective in nature, this is gonna suck for low elevations- even up here and probably beyond.

Yup 
that is the general consensus 

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

 

And still going a little more 

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How is it relative to 12z?

On Less crack 

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM QPF is rather blotchy. Strange. Almost convective looking.

Euro did the same on a panel 

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think it’s just a difference in the maps we are looking at based on the providor, assuming all relevant hours are included I know we can both read a clown map 

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It does need to be explained more because you keep counting the few iches that it drops on Friday.

Its 4" of snow...then 3" more next Friday.

Umm nope 

I’m looking at a 78 hour total for 10:1 over Methuen and it’s pink 

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Looks a little north of the euro. Regardless, I’m glad to see more model runs giving better QPF rates. GFS is still pretty flaccid but it will eventually cave. Bigger question is whether the northern models are too amped or not. 

It was extremely similar for Route 2 into Central New England In the sense of where the goods were and totals  . It was milder but it didn’t effect much s of route 2 on the 10:1 clowns 

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

ICON gives me like 4" in 10:1...Euro is like 7.

Icon gives you 6-7” on 10:1 and icon Kuchie gives you like 4 not that this needs to be explained much more 

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, it isn't.

Its north of it.

For us 

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

So much for the confluence....S stream FTW.

3-4” of that is from today for Concord NH to Rochester Nh into Maine and north 

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What is needed for interior elevated but south of 90?

A Car with gas 

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sounds dishonest.....In-laws or snow....in-laws or snow....Hmmmmmm

There can’t even be hesitation when answering 

Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

Michelle family coming up from New York City. So I'd be okay with not having less known during the day

You don’t sound that snow crazed 

My sanity in attenuating 

Wagons south and broken down on gfs 

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Looks like gfs is coming in colder and south

Definitely at onset 

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would be more concerned seeing that as a slot within the main QPF field....that just looks like we're on the N edge of the QPF shield, which is where you usually want to be.

I think in this situ with the confluence over Maine the cut off is going to be exceptional for someone near Merrimack valley and I wonder if models will handle that sharpness well 

that being said I’m more commenting than neurotic about it this time bc I can be in Bedford Mass as well lol and likely will be anyway 

I also think we have had an unusual number of very challenging forecast setups the last 2 years . Thermals have been a issue that either effected P type and or ratios for most every system in SNE and that is in addition to the other challenges of track , kickers , phasing etc

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

TBH, I like my spot based on the mid levels.

I think it’s mid levels or bust for most outside elevations 

I gotta peel myself away from these models geezus I need help , it’s still a couple days away 

Next I’ll be canceling and moving around personal training clients to coincide with the euro and other model runs 

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

thats not a dryslot , its the northern extent of the precip shield , dryslot is when the wcb moves through and precip shuts off .. low snow totals are bc its warm .. 

I didn’t call for a WCB induced dry slot 

Merrimack valley dry air drain from Maine led to the sharp cutoff that coincided with N extent 

also hurt ability for it to snow hard enough to stick and cool like it did to the south

we know the airmass is not good , but it’s not better in to the south where more snow fell 

8 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

no dryslots its just rain lol 

Incorrect , huge QPF cutoff north of Lowell /LWM 

about .35 in Derry NH

.55 in Meth

and like 1.1 in Lowell 

first several hours rains