STILL N OF PIKE

We know how it often goes if the people gathering are not liberals, 80% of the media reporting is scare mongering catering to a demographic and I been leaning liberal 35 years of my life but I can still call a spade a spade .

Just best to wait till they go significantly below 2000 tech bubble valuations regardless

Market is barely bouncing off 50 day moving averages after significant 3 day fall . Time for the fed and banks to call “ congress “ into closed door session and explain this System is as fragile as Wylie Coyote regarding current asset values and their importance regarding systematic solvency . They are worried about making interest payments 10 years down road instead of hitting brakes as car is speeding toward a cliff .

Unfortunately I wasn’t here for Bill. Eduard in late 90’s was sizable the day of closest approach There was a ocean storm that backed up S of Nova Scotia and sent some very large 10 feet @ 13 second swell to SE NH last year seems every year or so I see a 7 or so foot /@10-11 second period S/Se swell Isabel in SFL was magical in south Palm beach , while 20 miles south or north was completely blocked by Bahamas. A weather geek could appreciate the new providence channel that allows a several hour “slot swell” to appear over a 15 mile stretch when the swell angle is within 2-3% of true ESE. That was a 15 foot swell that appeared over 2 hours and disappeared that nite . Those were 20 foot faces. Many must have thought they were hallucinating when the first sets made their way thru that channel . Photo is not me.

I’ll take 18z verbatim That looks like a nice 7-8 foot swell at about 11 seconds for Wednesday pm (10 days ) I just don’t want OTS at 50w

we may have something here on 18z GFS...hour 180 looks more interesting than last few days runs

The one thing I would love to experience is a late October cane coming up from South and phasing with some anomalous arctic energy that destroys parts of western /NNE . Heck NNE could probably even do it mid October feels like that’s more likely than any strong 2/3 coming at us. I would enjoy DIT’s posts for that

Euro sputters utter crap. Maybe EPS is active

So much for that big bad WAR...looks A LOT more troughy for mid september than the LR did a week ago.

What are your thoughts on the parade of MDR potential distrubances and the key to them not recurving at 55w

18z is awful, weakness opens up at 55w and sucks the storms right up

This active period has been 10 days out for a week now. Seems like it’s finally not getting pushed back further but we need better timing with that mid Atlantic Ocean weakness to not let the (modeled Day 4-7 canes ) escape . Right now some models look sort of ridiculous with the escape at 50w , the trapping at 55w and zig zagging then well east out to sea. I could see ridge or ridge weakness trend to a clean escape into westerlies at 50-55W or be in and a bit closer to Bermuda Next couple day trends are key !

They are recurving potentially around 50-55. Worst case .

You moving to snowier pastures

zzzz

NASDAQ bubble This Am. Valuations have reached past 2000 Tech bubble at a time when we are entering the most economic uncertainty of a winter ..ever after worst GDP quarter in people's lives. This could facilitate what the market has priced in and is losing patience to see. A 1.5 to 2.5 trillion or greater stimulus bill and money put into citizens hands as consumer spending is collapsing in early Sept. again and tons of business plan to close doors this winter for good. Congress does move when the market falls , but we may need more than a day or two of this to make them move for real..this is probably just their first warning.

What Putts by Johnson and John Rahm 66 footer to win ! $$

I believe People want a peaceful rural escape and many are willing to take the chance wether sking is open or not if they can work from home. I would call it “Stress management” and it’s in huge demand . People can only down booze for so long as a strategy lol.

One reason for optimism or a preview of how the ski season could go is a look at how a Australian ski resort is doing (owned by Vail Resorts)..granted the numbers in Australia are pedestrian and about equal to Massachusetts lately https://www.parkrecord.com/news/a-vail-resorts-mountain-in-australia-could-offer-preview-of-socially-distanced-park-city-ski-season/ Chile and Argentina on the other hand are getting dumped on and many not open, thou some are for locals , as Covid numbers are much higher . I would imagine many NY state residents and Mass residents may see restrictions At NNE mountains , especially if they are from counties w higher numbers . https://www.powderhounds.com/SouthAmerica/2020-Season-News.aspx

I would say everything is on the table . There are zero certainties this winter. As a resort , which ones does it make financial sense for to shut down lodges, hotels / condos and leave the lifts spinning..are their any? I could see that coming when people are sneezing in every long line indoors this winter . The ones like Cannon and Wildcat probably see the most money as a percentage of total operations from their season pass holders as they don’t have much else going on besides selling beers and burgers . Thou if they aren’t owned by the big wigs they may not Have the $$ Cushion to handle a down year . Powder freak , any thoughts .

My hope is to be able to ski NH for the full season and hopefully stay up north for any large snow storms where i'm able. As far as that goes or especially out of state skiing ..i'm not very optimistic but i just don't see lodges being open past New Years. Just let the coughing begin, the news will smell the fear and report endlessly as fear sells clicks and 1/4 the population will go back into a state of news induced paralysis . What remains of the economy in April should be fun to see. I don't know that cases will soar, they may but the fear of any cough being covid seems baked into the cake . That's my base case scenario as Covid 19 response , just has too much potential to facilitate some pain that will facilitate future change that seems to be tied into other societal, climate, economic-technotronic and Covid group think solutions.(that may not otherwise be agreed upon w out various issues being magnified and all will seem fine with public when they camp out in front of the news all day all day, encouraging folks into what are acceptable/preferred ideas. The Global economic forum head Klaus Schwab is just very vocal , open and optimistic about these issue being in the forefront of the public mind and it works into the media's mindset for ratings to leverage these issues all day long perpetually, not to sound nefarious just sort of what is . He wrote a book called the great reset which is a pretty straight forward look into shaping the future in a sustainable way and covid's role. I would avoid the knee-jerk conspiratorial perspectives/ ideas ...thats not my angle..and read the actual book, i just believe this is a noteworthy possibility not a lock. Shaping society and governance over 7 billion people can not always be straight forward, transparent and done without significant suffering. It is worth noting the World Economic Forum often has lofty goals and ideas that move much slower or not at all, it just seems public perception and attention is aligned much better now for ...progress

I saw you were down there , awesome !

chilly day

Interested to see if it reaches the media “meet up” spot I saw in Lake Charles

There really are no good beach cams in Louisiana where This is heading. Good news is that speaks to probably the last populated 50 mile swath of coastline on gulf ?