STILL N OF PIKE

Looks like snow at 2k for Jay peak now

Got a 5 day epic pass for Primarily NH resorts today for 210$ . Can’t beat that . Prices go up Monday

Would Mountain ops make a stink if I put a yurt up there at like 3500’

Odds are 1/4 you lose your catalytic converter in the woo

And milfs

Lol I know you were joking and I def wouldn’t point finger at gramps (I’m not a fan of any side ) Opec is siding with ...not us And as financial assets Like stocks and bonds tank this week on inflation concerns remaining which prevents the fed from putting the crack addicted broken markets back on their post 2008 stimulus drip ..we have oil up 17% this week as speculators can take a small supply cut of (1-2% and leverage that into a 20% increase in oil per barrel . Nothing wrong with the system here just ordinary supply / demand dynamics lol . Plus lower investment into fossil fuels Ahead of any realistic capacity for a transition has not been helpful but emotion Trumps logic sometimes these days This risks going from ugly and “this can’t be good” to a crisis . Markets are sorta waiting for that now so “Daddy fed” can come back and lower rates to zero . The biggest key for folks and market wildcard will be what does unemployment get to and folks keeping their job the next 12 months .

A very good economic mind . Eric Sprott Canadian billionaire that owns precious metals businesses has a very good article from last week that has started to play out and includes a chart of one key metric to follow . He’s not some “gold bug” . One of the better economic minds With a article highlighting crash risk and why https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/Crash-Watch-Becomes-Crash-Warning-September-27-2022

Yes . That isn’t even possible for such a candidate to be funded . That is something that died decades ago. They would be a non starter And has zero chance of returning. Its going to be a very tough road ahead for federal reserve to raise rates , but they will keep rates lower than inflation to keep real rates negative , so I think when Core PCE inflation finally rolls over and if it gains momentum that is when market returns to partying and fed stops dead in its rate hiking tracks . For the time being they are focused on trying to keep future inflation anticipation from becoming entrenched into psychology . So they see a future recession as great news for that and they see themselves downplaying the recession as good news to keep investors concerned about falling assets and believing inflation will roll over in that scenario and when prices of Core inflation fall for a couple months they will change their rate hiking talk but until then we run the risk of something breaking (I think )

Some struggled mightily with this last storm and sort of played the piano as the titanic sunk . Hopefully they get some sort of upgrade .

some areas just getting crushed . How’s the stein clown Tweeting about this

Ya they bounced with markets starting on Monday am . Problem is in financial markets , people have no where to hide lately and they went all in on “inflation trade” last year and if fed pivots people will rush back into commodities . The issue is speculation and even investment into commodities as an asset class should be curtailed because the price of stuff people need can get “artificially” / exponentially increased much more than otherwise would be the case from relatively small supply cutbacks - investors some large see it as an opportunity to deliver “alpha” for themselves and their clients and this is something that is a taboo topic on tv . This speculation led to the rise of the “Arab spring” over a decade ago and you won’t see lawmakers rushing to make sure this doesn’t happen again , they white wash and minimize and obfuscate the connection between speculation into commodities as an asset class and the subsequent role that has in raising prices for all commodities, and when there is a favorable back drop for Diminished commodity supply , investors pig pile and lever up making what should be a 10-15% price increase based on strict supply / demand into a disaster for citizens and a 30-45% $ increase .

Can’t imagine anything less $ for that period and I don’t think I could find something equal either. its hard to find anything under 300$/day and for that week..very hard

Best view in New England off that back deck . Stowe Spruce peak is second to me as you drive toward mountain and sun hits the white landscape Of the spine . I would argue best view from the slopes is 100% from top of slopes at wildcat across to Mount Washington on a sunny day .

I was including that period . I’m def not referring to rates . Rates won’t Come close to touching that level but There is much greater structural instability and it’s global now than that period , a world with quadrillions in derivatives spread among interconnected parties and more so the debt structure now can not handle the rate hikes of that period . Also we are coming off a 13 year experiment in 0-1% fed funds rates and bubble valuations in stocks bonds and housing not to mention (QE / monetizing our own debt ) once monetary systems go down that road there are not many instances of returning to anything resembling normal Policy of moderate rates . I can’t find any . instead there a examples of continued intervention required . Early 80’s didn’t have that structural issue . Thus why nobody alive has seen this before . They are raising rates aggressively into a bubble and a weakening economy . Debt to gdp is about 300% of what it was in that early 80’s scenario and monetary systems become more fragile with age mostly due to the debt growing more over time . This scenario has however played out many times in the last few centuries and no system lasts forever . Hoping they just find a way to kick the can . Volcker was lucky he didn’t have to deal with social media and all the whining as assets fall to bring down inflation, he smoked a cigar (while giving testimony) and told people to deal with it as he broke inflations back, Powell may cave under pressure and then inflation could become entrenched , PPI and CPI number next week need to come in lower so fed can slow rate hikes as the always honorable IMF and UN come out today and try to influence Fed’s plans.

Haven’t posted a while about it but the financial markets are just ugly with the fed in a spot that folks haven’t seen in their life times . Hiking rates to fight inflation into economic weakness and a 20 year asset bubble . **As Ray Dalio says people In financial markets often Make the mistake of using the experiences they have seen in their lifetime to determine wha the market can do and will do , monetary cycles often repeat throughout history but the average length of the cycles are 100-120 years and history is littered with examples of what can happen next** . Hooping they find a way to put a bandage on and kick the can bc there are zero good options . 3575 on SP 500 is a tag of a big support zone and likely bounce zone . It’s the 200 week moving average

Summer and steins back was broken and I couldn’t be happier

Staying there on the 12’th of Novie

The MWN scrolls of yore

Thur nite football . Tua leaving on a stretcher . He was thrown down and then his fingers were sort of frozen in a curled fashion when he hit ground...head trauma

I knew there was more risk to the SE of track but man the worst of the surge seem to hit Naples and Bonita springs with the backside which was stronger and had onshore winds. Many elderly in Naples didn’t get much of a warning to get out as all the attention was on Tampa for days then Sarasota Venice and down to fort Myers . On snap chat you can go to map and scroll to those areas and see all the vids posted . Naples has one of people on a roof of a house that is floating down a totally flooded neighborhood . I’m afraid there will be higher fatalities in coming days from Bonita Springs to Naples and other spots . The ENE ‘ish turn into the coast and then the crawl after landfall made the angle of approach worse for surge in that Southern area

18z euro LF in line for punta gorda

Seems about 10 days behind

Anyone have the 18z euro , it should be out enough to show LF

I just saw you covered that as I was reading last couple pages I wonder if this can have some Charley like ticks . I’m not trying to act like I know anything or that the set up favors them but just because I’m not sure how prepped people are for the arrival of a potential cat 4 in Ft. Myers because that would take just a little more of a turn and be on them by morning

The intensity at landfall was relative to how far north into the sheer (300mb jet streak it got ) if this was landfalling North of Tampa is would slow big time and get hit hard by shear and weaken alot The further SE landfall on west coast the stronger it should be . this may be confusing to you