STILL N OF PIKE

Ian has some dry air entrained . Definitely not looking like a classic cane so far but it has come a long way from Saturday nites appearance

That is the track for highest winds at landfall

I think the 18z euro landfall over Punta Gorda is a viable option . I felt like that area wasn’t getting enough attention based on the fact you just needed the NE trough to be a tiny bit deeper and poof influences the steering flow to adjust landfall a bit faster (stronger storm ) and not being left behind to drift around Tampa Not that this will be what happens but it’s been a option . I also think ensembles in general are under-dispersive and do a poor account on some set ups where the viable options are Not well representing of future options and they are counted on too much .

Brady’s TB 12 products floating out into the gulf

Euro tickles 30 miles west , great timing euro lol

When The gfs finds itself on a island , you wanna evacuate

Some odd posts. Kids will stress you sometimes lol .We know the gfs is awful and many tropical models have input based on it

She’s probably right . Throw on some shutters and her house should be fine . The other concern is does her neighborhood flood

Everyone safe from the S of pike tornados ?

1-2% ?

^ He drinking

Snow !?!

Thanks for sharing . About what I would anticipate to see given how much water was moving on east side of storm . On a map you can see that Port has direct SE exposure To ocean

WxWatcher should be fine , probably just sleeping or lost power . He was in a good spot to see winds and low pressure but not on the ocean side or close to ocean (regarding risk from surge /surf) of this beast Anyone find storm surge video From folks on ocean side

There were absolute bombs at dusk. There is a reef about a Mile SW off sachuest point that began breaking as high tide approached and from a good mile away you could see huge faces . Never saw it break like that before . It was mostly mundane thru mid afternoon With 5-8 foot sets than someone flipped the switch You could see on Block island and Nantucket bouy (biggest east of Montauk) a big jump at 5-7pm that lasted 2 hrs or so but we rarely see 9-10ft @17 seconds

Spent afternoon and evening @ Newport . Newport bouy jacked up to 9.5ft @18 after 6 which explains why some absolutely massive sets appeared around 630 .

Awesome ^

I’m heading down to RI tomorrow. The swell just bumped a little at the Texas tower bouy About 50 miles S of Long Island . 6 ft @ 14 seconds which is a larger breaking wave and that will build . I anticipate a peak tommorrow around 9 feet at 16 seconds which I think is up to a 15 foot face

I wasn’t sure on what size will be when it hits RI but the angle should be south which is solid and I’m hopeful for 10 feet breakers . There won’t be many unsuspecting swimmers out tommorrow , as it will be 60 at beach but that is always funny to see if a swell has 5 min breaks between sets

Swell 15.2 feet at 13 seconds SSE swell off SE coast Bouy Texas Tower by Long Island will start pinging the SSE swell Now and build it later this evening High Surf Advisory RI coast this eve thru Friday eve

Don’t recall that one . I’ll take October thru November get a monster hybrid and then cut it off In a spot for NVT nw flow

I considered flying to Bermuda Thursday

Some action in the gulf, then turn hybrid and run into a unseasonably cold airmass so I can stay at a Airbnb in W Nowhere ville in NNE at 2k

It’s just a sad state of affairs . Such a devastating drug for many .

Ya nice rain in ASH