GFS has more potent energy on SE side of that secondary sorta dragging it out to sea East . Not much of any northern component after it gets to Long Island longitude
That would be good and to be clear I don’t mean bury the energy to the Catalina islands like 10 days ago just a bit of a more SW protrusion into Nevada / Az . It doesn’t appear like the SE ridge is much of an issue at all and I don’t know and was just wondering if that’s bc the current modeled Rockies trough is flattish or something else entirely
I am watching what Scott mentioned to make sure that Rockies trough hours 190-230 doesn’t start burying itself SW . The gfs had led the way last time in picking up the lower heights in the SW by Nevada or so and the ridge orientation can send troughs sliding south so that is what I’m watching for to maintain the look that is good . In case we needed a reminder that isn’t a negative post it’s objective given that it doesn’t take much to see that subtle shift . Alternatively like it it was a “bad” look that needed a little help I would point out any little shift that could help us . You can see the west coast ridge make a bit of headway into the Cali / Nevada /Idaho region (day 7-8) and then a piece of energy slides down Rockies around day 9-10 and I’m watching that particularly to see if that buckles the ridge back west
Assuming the 925 track doesn’t creep north my guess is Miller state park - or a couple miles east in that area where temple goes from like 700’ to 1200’. Also very possible you need to get 20 miles north at same longitude for all snow you need to get west of MHT near francestown / Crotched
basically watching that 0c 925 Line on euro Overnite Friday
Ensemble low clusters were pretty damn tight hours 96/102 last nite with most members going across S CT into Wor-Boston corridor than a bit East of Portsmouth
0z Euro was basically A carbon copy of 12z run
It seemed the SLP was about 15 miles south of the 12z track but the thermals were not better , especially as it tracked from tri state area across SNE
Appears you were right , that is slightly more inland like you said at 12z , not sure if John Was using 84-96 hour comparisons to highlight changes at 5H but I’m no met