STILL N OF PIKE
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Everything posted by STILL N OF PIKE
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SR reporting 6” new net gain but they will probably get to about 40f at base today
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No lol that was their report yesterday (25’th) that totaled the last storm and it’s two day totals . They have not updated since 5am Wednesday prior To the current storm . My guess is 7-10” for them but we’ll see. As of 9am ..they still haven’t given a report in over 24 hours ..I’m sure they don’t mind the confusion
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I think it shows if you want the cold Via PV s.e of Hudson Bay and you have the Baja troughs, suppression is on the table for someone now . Maybe it will be NNE maybe all the way down to NYC . To me I paint this period as a bit less active but with any gradient Potential further south , so sorta thread the needle to get the latitude cold and stormy . Maybe I’m off base
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The risks were present for a bust thou . Weak WAA Being modeled being number 1
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That being Said , does February 10 onward look solidly above normal if you were a betting man or is the SE ridge flex hard to really anticipate at this lead
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Any early guess John how February May end Regarding monthly temp anomaly’s. My guess would be after a colder than normal first 6-8 days we mild up enough to finish +3 or 4 for the month . That SE ridge flex should have folks attention further up north as well in my opinion .
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New snows Via mountain reports 2” crotched , 5” Sunapee 8” attitash (no wildcat yet ) conditions are heavy and soft and variable , Stratton 3” , Stowe 5”, sugarloaf 8” on top , Bretton woods 5”
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2” crotched , 5” Sunapee 8” attitash (no wildcat yet ) conditions are heavy and soft and variable , Stratton 3” , Stowe 5”, sugarloaf 8” on top , Bretton woods 5”
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I think That period is the best all year for mid Atlantic to NYC , could come more north at this Lead time but there is legit hope for first time in a long time for upper mid Atlantic
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You haven’t looked ... can you at some point or did you basically toss the towel on that till La Niña weakens in March ? seems like we try to thread the needle with the upcoming early feb period , more potential is there for areas that haven’t seen anything this year from mid Atlantic to S coastal SNE / SE mass but we look to introduce the chance of suppression as a price to pay for that chance
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Scott , how is the Indian Ocean forcing looking , I still see closed 500mb lows to Baja and northern Mexico and then last I heard was you mentioned second week of February looks to flex a strong SE ridge , is the latter part still a likely outcome in your opinion.
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You just need to get up north
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The latest run of 0z euro , 0z cmc and 6z gfs don’t really have much QPF Over the next 10 days (After accounting for last nites crap) Looks like maybe a bit of a break from the active period Over next 10 days.
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People have been pressing for a good pattern. It’s looked very good for cutters for a long time . We got some decent breaks in the last couple storms (before this piece of trash ) and I’ve been thankful for that . Just incredibly active and Mild with some N SNE folks being able to cash a little during peak climo . More cutters seem likely to me for SNE but I’m hoping it’s not back to rains to Maine and 850 lows thru Montreal after this garbage system
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They are gonna flip by 10pm , box way too high on their experimental maps . Most office seems to hedge high and not be caught low . Monday was a bit of an outlier with many spots busting high in Maine .
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Monster gradient
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Take em down ... weak WAA and 850 low over N VT . Congrats N Maine
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Euro 10 day snow map for whatever it’s worth shows the NNE and central New England north of concord NH crushed in a gradient pattern with about 6-8” down to me and ray and wait for it ..less south
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many decisions are based not on what will likely happen but emotions and oh goodness we messed up Monday , let’s mess up again
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Euro had the North central NJ snows for around 3” in spots
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I hope we get a ice storm for the history books
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Is there any blocking what so ever in sight /50/50 Davis straits ridging
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I’ll sell that cold for now
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We deep January 2023
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It’s an experimental product , I never look to them to show much changes. That being said I’m not sure if much has changed or not . With 850 low going over Stowe and a questionable thump ...I don’t see a monster
