STILL N OF PIKE

So much depends on the initial thump like earlier this week . If it goes far NW and that overnite to 6/7am thump doesn’t materialize , it’s simply a very long shot to get much .

It’s a joke

Will synoptically what were the reasons for the first move further north and then “second move “ more East late

Nam adjusted late . Secondary low took a decent track for Merrimack valley

Nam looks like garbage Thru 54

I mean let’s face it . It’s a snow board and WPC maps are lower then clown maps and they are also more accurate. So they won’t be as liked. It’s honestly not rocket science . I’ve noticed myself that when I latch onto snowier ideas and models it’s more “enjoyable” from the standpoint of a winter weather enthusiast. It’s really basically the default setting unless you decide to realize it’s less enjoyable and More accurate to remain unbiased (not flip to negative which I am aware Is a “thing” probably to lower bar etc I don’t look for ways things won’t work when I’m looking at a system a couple days out , also I think having the ability to travel for most big snows makes looking at things from a more “balanced” perspective less “painful“ . It’s hard to find a true balance and I really work at that even with my limited knowledge .

Wow a actual ridge over Cali/ Nevada

WPC doesn’t look to enthusiastic about tomm am event outside whites and Maine mountains . Was a little surprised

And I closely follow their updates / trends . They really are under utilized in the day of folks loving clown maps

I know for me the WPC snow amounts and percentages tend to be superior over the local offices . I watch them all every storm . WPC is usually steadier and less weenie’ish. I use their 50% line for various snow amounts to basically determine how many inches they are thinking for that contour and if the percentage lines are packed very tight you know there is a steep gradient And subject to more significant changes for an area .

That matches WPC ‘s am update pretty closely bottom line is we need confluence to step up MORE next few cycles

Is it north or south of 12z op

This looks like a very good storm for Garth’s spot in S dacks (I think) in NY. Even if it gains latitude Friday nite that area would still Get a crush

You’ve been clear and right more than wrong this winter . That is 100% fact . People also know your posting location so you have very little wiggle room

It’s basically gfs in one camp and nam/ euro/ cmc /Ukie in the other. That can still change but if that’s the story in 24 hours it’s not ideal for many in sne Scott has said his concern is this comes north , and Again at his latitude that makes sense I want to see if EPS are a tick south of OP, my hope is they are

I don’t like the way high pressure Is looking on most all but gfs , with the euro being slower the high just gets into a less favorable position for many posters in EMass and maybe into Merrimack valley where I would currently anticipate a decent gradient setting up . Cold 850/925 north of pike and esp route 2 but if this isn’t good rates I could see an elevation gradient due to BL temps in lower 750 feet of atmosphere in aforementioned areas

Were the GEFS north or OP

Gfs looks to have the best high pressure placement by far Ukmet high pressure looks like doo doo and torches E SNE into SE NH

Not a clue which was this will trend but it’s another nail biter for SNE in 22/23 winter ..(especially when subtle changes ) in WC trough , confluence , and Short wave strength can all have notable changes to temps , track , thump . We do need that high pressure to hang tight

Thanks !

Anyone post a 6z eps clown

That’s 68” Over KBED with FIT LWM and ASH and MHT all at 60” + (& DAW)

18z Euro and 0z nam start precip at very similar times . Nam has a bit more latitude on N side of initial thump

There is that chance . my guess is if it did it would be a tad weaker but I’m sure S folks wood enjoy it

Where winter is winter