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MikeB_01

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Everything posted by MikeB_01

  1. MikeB_01
    Interesting thing i noticed here. The temps have consistently been lower than forecasted for. Thats a good sign that the cold air is a little more stubborn than the models are predicting. Obviously this is different at 850 than at the surface, but still thought it was interesting to see the temps are starting colder than forecasted
  2. MikeB_01
    so bad
  3. MikeB_01
    HREF also showed 70% odd of seeing 1"/hr rates from 1am-4 am. That'll be fun to watch
  4. MikeB_01
    00z HREF looks good too. 10-12" for AGC. Heaviest right on the board of PA/OH. In line with everything else.
  5. MikeB_01
    Damn... That deform band lined up in eastern ohio. Man, how sweet would that be. Looks like most models have set that deform band a little further west than the metro area. Could totally see it moving a little east, but we will see. For the record, I would absolutely take 15+
  6. MikeB_01
    GFS looks to take a very similar path to HRRR but the deform band is about 50 miles further west.
  7. MikeB_01
    Hi Res NAM and HRRR probably only 50 miles different on that big band of snow
  8. MikeB_01
    14+ .
  9. MikeB_01
    Yo… .
  10. MikeB_01
    Great start to the 00z .
  11. MikeB_01
    Love nowcasting. Community moment -> I love nowcasting with you guys
  12. MikeB_01
    not at all. And most of the other models already have us there.
  13. MikeB_01
  14. MikeB_01
    here are the top 3 analogs on CIPS. This is based on the 12z NAM at hour 36
  15. MikeB_01
    I know purple is 6 and pink is 12. But distinguishing them on those maps is a different language .
  16. MikeB_01
    15z run of SREFs up to 8.
  17. MikeB_01
    Agreed. We could start summer on January 19th and i would be very pleased
  18. MikeB_01
    19/20 of those are solid. .
  19. MikeB_01
    It is inevitable for the evolution of the storm. Where it goes and how long it stays around will change totals. Lots of models have the dry slot to the south and east of AGC. .
  20. MikeB_01
    Hilarious considering the NAM just put out 30+ on Erie. He has 3-6
  21. MikeB_01
    This pleases me. .
  22. MikeB_01
    I feel like a lot of the guidance is on board though. Everything except the NAM is east. NAM the only one that is stubbornly holding out on a westward solution. As i said earlier, Im not sure how much stock mets are putting in NAM. Here is the warning map for CLE NWS. Last 4-5 runs of the NAM have dropped more than a foot on CLE and points east. Not even a WWA for Cuyahoga County (where cleveland is).
  23. MikeB_01
    Even when in range, i HRRR is a superior model to the NAM
  24. MikeB_01
    Definitely a different set up than 2019. The ULL went right over Pittsburgh. And about 48 - 36 hr out, we started to see the westward move. The WTD showed itself early on.
  25. MikeB_01
    Cautiously optimistic. That is how i would describe my mood right now. Nowcasting strategy -> Take a Xanax, grab some snow brews, and enjoy the uncertainty
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