Wonderdog

It's on our doorstep brother. Then it dries up.

36 degrees with snow falling in Gainesville

41 degrees at 95 and 234 South with Skies brightening in the east

39 degrees with a stray snowflake or two falling on Route 234 approaching Route 28

Future radar shows snow approaching Gainesville a little past 1pm

32° and overcast in Gainesville.

Tantalizing close.

2 hours ago, frd said:

We are due!  

Yes, this will be our storm.

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

10 am

And it's still just Wednesday. 

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I kinda feel like that's where we are headed. Just intuition. 

Would be a shame to waste a coastal storm like this one. I gather from your comment that this setup reminds you of something. 

38 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

At this range the Ens are going to follow the Op. Feels like the Euro is our last hope. If that is dashed, onto HH with renewed hope anyway lol

Hard to believe the EURO won't cave now.

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Bob Chill I’m more disappointed in the degradation of the NS SW and upper level low pass. That has some potential v the coastal that I’ve never been excited for. Hopefully that stops trending south. 

Is the NS SW helping to push the coastal further east? 

Can anyone recall a similar setup like this in the past where the storm actually did move to the West approaching the beginning of the storm?

8 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

With current setup, if you live around Quantico, Dumfries, Triangle, Dale City, Lake Ridge Woodbridge, you can probably scratch out 4 inches. West of there is a crap shoot at best.

Agreed. Looks like I'm going to need the northern stream to over perform to reach that.

2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

seems like that would be a yes.   I mean that snowfall gradient is straight north south...seems like it would move with the storm either being further west or bombing more...or both.  will wait for the others

Brother, I'd be happy if PWC would scratch out a 4 inch snowfall.

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

and its still only Tuesday.  if we could just get....nevermind...2-4 is fine.

DON'T SETTLE!

4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I think based on that euro look there will be a screw zone..my area west of 95 east of 81 looks solid for that to occur.  Where the NS fades and the coastal takes over.  It’s ok I’m fine with it..don’t worry about me…I’m fine

Time to step away brother and come back at 18z. Just peek at the number of pages in this thread at 12z.

NWS has upped precipitation possibilities to 50% for this storm from 30%.

EURO run was almost there at H5. Definitely an improvement from yesterday. One more tick west may improve the look of things at the western ridge.

I always thought a Miller be with a northern stream event that would transfer to the coast usually just above our latitude

11 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Yeah, good trends but I’m keeping expectations in check for now.  We all know the pitfalls of this kinda setup for everyone SW of Philly. Not saying we can’t get a storm of course.  

Right, keep expectations in check but take solace in the fact that this signal has been around about a week or so.

5 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Sure, it could snow. My point was never that it's not going to snow, but I'm also (and I'm assuming most people freaking out over huge snowfall totals on the snow maps) aren't looking for a few inches. We can fluke into some snow in completely garbage patterns. But a big snow? Can anyone give me Baltimore's biggest snowstorm with a positive AO and NAO? What is it? 6 inches maybe?

I just see a lot of people getting excited about the big coastal idea and then getting depressed when it's not showing up and my only point is that teleconnections tell us this would be the first time we would get a big hit with the AO and NAO not on our side.

Who cares if some get depressed. Goes with the territory. Unrealistic expectations over a model run more than five days out has been consistently explained and cautioned against by the mets in this forum. Time to buck up.

12 minutes ago, Ji said:

Cmc showed the first of many upcoming western trends

I agree. We're right where we want to be 5 days out. 

26 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The Euro doesn’t answer prayers

The EURO needs prayers.

2 hours ago, SnowDreamer said:

Does such a quick deepening storm have any effect on its movement?