Wonderdog

35 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

that system around the 23rd has been showing up on modeling for a while now, and it seems like the ensembles are beginning to parse the broad longwave features. with that said, there are actually a lot of pieces here, and they look like they can come together to produce some significant upside. at this point, it would be late December, and climo is much more favorable than it is now, even along the coast

1. this is the highly anomalous ridge that is going to form as a result of the +EAMT that is going to take place over the next several days. notice how this ridge extends and cuts off into the Beaufort Sea. this is important because it both establishes a very cold antecedent airmass, and it displaces the TPV, which I'll get to in a bit
2. this is the west-based -NAO blocking that forms as a result of this week's system. the Miller B that forms on Friday forces very warm air into the Davis Strait, which helps create a transient block that then decays over this region. this kind of decaying block over the Davis Strait is a precursor to some of our largest storms
3. this is the TPV that has been displaced by the ridging I talked about earlier. this serves to deliver very cold air to the NE US ahead of the potential storm, and it also plays a very important role in establishing confluent flow over SE Canada... it could act as a kind of 50/50 ULL, which is also why the block is so important. both of them work in tandem to deliver HP to SE Canada and prevent a cutter 
4. finally, this is the shortwave that is beginning to get picked out by modeling. this is a very vigorous signal for this far out, but it makes sense given the entire hemisphere forcing it into existence given the +EAMT and extension of the Pacific jet. this would roll off of the ridge and downstream into the confluent flow forced by the TPV and transient blocking

so, overall, there is a lot here to like. pretty much every piece is in place for a large-scale event around this time. now, there are obviously a lot of caveats at this range, as one would expect, and there is a possibility that something like the GFS OP plays out and it rains on everyone. I kind of have to favor inland regions, but that by no means rules anyone out

when I see this kind of longwave configuration, it does get me a bit excited. all of the pieces are in place, so we'll see how it plays out over the next week or so

Any concerns that the ridge out west is too far west?

39 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

thanks that makes sense.  the term blocking is thrown around a lot...for the novice you hear blocking and think we are in business.  the best example of blocking, in my head, would be a long duration overrunning event where we are on the right side of it and it spits out frozen for days....that would be fun.  my point last night was we see some of these fantasy range  systems cutting into 1040-1050 highs without much resistance...at least on the long range models.  if we had true block with highs locked in over NE this would at least push back and lock the cold in longer. 

Looking at H5, it looks like the "block" is oriented east/west as opposed to north/south which delays that primary lp from scooting away and allowing moisture to come up the coast after this upcoming event.

What a stream of moisture coming on Christmas. 

22 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Agreed but who knows how things will  turn out.  when you have 1050+ highs pushing down with 486 thickness levels you never know what your gonna get.  maybe a fun snow squall line....at least if its going to warm up and rain between cold shots it will have a fight pushing the cold away from the blocking...we'd have to see some bad luck not to get something out of this between now and 1 Jan....really bad luck

Thank heavens we never have bad luck.

29 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Not sure how many times it has been posted, but it isnt the track. It is a primary rotting 800-900 miles  NW of the redevelping low. It isnt a rapid jump either so you get a SE flow at mid levels for some 800+ miles. That is going to roast the mids, that is meteo 101 stuff. You dont have rapid redevelopment and bombogenesis happening. We have been down this road numerous times in recent years (not this exact setup) where we get a perfect storm track but the antecedent airmass is stale and it rains. Hopefully most places can at least some frozen for the first time this season. Interior elevations should feel pretty good attm.

What if it rotted say in Arkansas or maybe TN? Wouldn't that.make a difference in the coastal track?

The 18z run shows the primary pettering out in Iowa and reappears around Wilmington NC. Isn,'t that a somewhat outlier redevelopment?

30 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

Same, the track looks great. Just need cold

Track sucks. Needs to redevelop further south. Still time.

Agreed 

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

Yup. I grew up in South Jersey, and I recall being excited by storms coming in from the west or northwest that were progged to reform because that usually meant we'd get some snow. ittle did I know way back then that NE would get absolutely clobbered by them or else my enthusiasm might have ben dampened a bit.  

I have the same recollections. And the more you know, the less enthusiasm there is. Where did you grow up? I'm from Vineland 

11 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Amazing what a stout block can do.

Sounds like a stout block could also be a real nightmare for the Mets on this board, wrt forecasting.

6z GFS op trying to give us some mood flakes next week and is that some CAD in the mountains?

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro is basically a hold for early Saturday. A bit weaker with the low and the cold push than 0z. Probably grassy accumulation for the N/W crew with maybe some white rain closer to the cities verbatim. 
 

There was a time that when the euro was locked in like this at D4-5 it was money, despite whatever other guidance. No longer…

Interesting. So do you think the lock in period is down to 3-4 days now. and do you consider the EURO still the quickest to the dance.

I suppose that a major pattern/blocking scenario would cause major problems for the models so while this weekend's storm is probably is probably toast, the December 15th time frame may still be a possibility. A little better climate-wise and it gives more time to set up.

Gfs hour 210 at 12z much changed from 6z

Maybe I spoke too soon. 

4 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Where would a low be on that chart?  With heights like that, I doubt it would be the Ohio Valley.

Should be more south and east, no?

Right you are brother, thanks! Good reminder to check the date/time of the runs.

CMC on board for a VA event on 12/09-12/10 at end of its run.

3 hours ago, leesburg 04 said:

Snow falling and sticking would be a win in my books....at any time of the winter honestly

Agreed. But does anyone know how many times in the last twenty years when models showed similar setups in December?

Wish that look at H5 would dig further south to maybe interact with the storminess along the coast in 11/14-11/15 time frame. Coud be fun.

Spotty drops beginning in Burke.

Just went through a period of sleet on Fairfax County Parkway!

Flurries in Gainesville 39 degrees

Heavy snow in Gainesville with wind.

Snow in Gainesville 50°