Wonderdog

30 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Couple of guys from back around 2005 will remember this

Joe B was an emerging star. Very enthusiastic he went for couple big events and nailed them and quickly garnered an increasing following

Then came the Vodka Cold debacle where, whatever year it was, from mid December to mid February he continually touted the Vodka Cold pouring into eastern USA in just 10-15 days. It never happened and many temperature predictions ended up off by over 20 degrees. That began the ending of my model interest beyond 7 days which continues to this day.

Now in 2006-07 the advertised pattern change did come in Feb and a good job was done in 2009/10 correctly predicting a return to cold and snow after a tepid January.  So, a job really well done twice in 15 years.  Can’t take those numbers to the bank 

 

He did.

Flurries in Manassas 36°

7 hours ago, Solution Man said:

Region wide warning level snowfall 234-252 this time. Probably nothing next run

You were right. 

33 and cloudy in Gainesville with just shy of an inch overnight. Of course,  I didn't see one flake fall.

19 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

DCA is going to end up about 53/38 for Jan with the lowest temp for the month of 29!  What makes this so bad is the last three winters snowfall totals were 0.6, 5.4 and 13.2.  HORRIBLE

When talking about where to live for retirement I never wanted the Carolinas because I hated the idea of months of bare trees and dreary, windy, rainy coat-wearing weather, but with no snow most years.  We have that HERE now!  I'd rather be in a very warm place and travel once a winter for snow.  [Sorry for bantering]

Isn't 13.2 inches of snow very close to normal for the Capital City?

Cold rain beginning to fall in Gainesville. Temps have dropped to 39!

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

GFS early next Monday storm was a one run phenom.

It will come back.

2 hours ago, BristowWx said:

It does…but what’s 2-3 inches going to come from?  Wave one looks like it’s dying on the vine.  Wave 2 seems to be trending toward rain.  Nothing after it appears.  2-3 inch mean seems skewed by some overamped members.  Is that wrong?  

Brother,  I know it's not on anyone's radar but I've watched that storm in the SE precipitation very slowly inch it’s way north to where it's reached se VA on 1/30. Cold air is close to the north.. All we need is for a miracle to happen and for somehow have that juicy storm to make a left and move up the coast. Doable?

56 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

@BristowWx and @Wonderdogcan tell u, we suck at snow here

Speak for yourself Solution Man, I got on the board the other day with a mixed sleet/occasional half-melted snowflake or two. As I said the other day, the rest will be gravy! lol

1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

But holy cow eastern Canada is cold.  468 and I think there is a -52 in there.  

Looks like just a modest trend north would give us a warning level event.

17 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Some of us who have been around for a long time just don't care to hear the constant negatives even if we know what the reality is. I'd personally rather look at and discuss the potential positives with the knowledge that it probably won't pan out than be told over and over and over that we need everything to go absolutely f*cking perfectly or else we're toast...and even then we're probably toast.

Well put. The naysayers need to remember the last three words of this thread.

A mix of sleet and rain in Gainesville 40°

44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This tells the story 

 

But it used to be 12/13 days ago. 

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Individual ens all over it as well. Hate to be pessimistic but I'm sure we will find a way to fail. Get it within 5 or 6 days and I will start believing.

This time period has been advertised for a while now so it doesn't appear to be going away. The devil though is in the details. 

38 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Feb 3 it says tho

Boundary line makes it to the Mid Atlantic  by 2/3 and hangs around till a redevelopment occurs and moves out on 2/5. An interesting period for sure only 9 or 10 days away. 

4 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

You could say the same of the gfs lol

 

None of them are right, right now 

2 hours ago, BristowWx said:

New month same theme.  It’s not cold enough at our latitude.  The deep cold never pushes through and the SER lingers to make sure it has no chance.  

Be happy that there has been multiple times over the years that we have woken up to find that the pattern that was considered to be locked in magically changed. Our time is coming. Besides February has been a good month for MA snowstorms.

Reporting from Gainesville- precipitation has begun to fall lightly. I detected a few microscopic white things interspersed with light mist/rain. I am going to assume it was snow falling which puts my backyard on the board. Thus going forward from today, any snow that might fall is gravy.

Future radar shows some semblance of snow very close to Gainesville  today. Would be nice to see a few flakes flying around for 5-10 minutes. 

Will be interesting to see if the 18z GFS run verifies for the path of the Gulf lp in a few days. Just doesn’t seem right. A strange path for the lp when it reaches the east course.

1 hour ago, Heisy said:

Thought it would help but I guess not. Put the 18z gfs on animation on wxbell. It’s really insane how every shortwave goes over the ridge and has a tough time getting out of the southwest. It’s like there is a vacuum west of Mexico sucking every shortwave backwards


.

And all of them seem to be taking the same track. I would be surprised if that happens. 

1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

probably because it tends to melt once the sun comes out in the piedmont and coastal plain and we know its really winters last gasp of breath.  relying on March to save our winter is just like moving across the bay in a leaking boat...you might make it but most likely it will sink. 

Don't forget March 1993.

Looks like things are a changing. Into what is anyone's guess 

Basically a frontal passage for MA.

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

I'll enjoy the winter we have. Perfect day to be outside doing pretty much anything.

Except using the snowblower.