Wonderdog

2 hours ago, BristowWx said:

Blizzard watches would go up.  We’d be in silly mode.  

I get my toy back on Thursday, just in time!

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Hasn't the GFS been showing something for this time period?  Keeps finding different ways to get there, but there has been a storm signal on it for a few runs.

Agreed 

H5 looks pretty good on the 29th 

Mixed precipitation in Gainesville 36°

40° with moderate rain in Manassas 

28 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Bet we can all will that back NW even more. 

But it's the EURO 

Just now, BristowWx said:

not gonna lie...I was looking forward to the weekend..that said couple inches of snow is fine

Yeah, EURO is unreliable this year.

Flakes beginning to fall in Gainesville!

This storm may exit at the VA/NC border when all is said and done. 

10 minutes ago, yoda said:

Went all the way into i95 corridor

Visions of the I-95 debacle last week dancing through their heads.

3 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Looks like the gfs jumps to the coast quicker than previous runs.

 

And the rain starts earlier. 

NAM looks good to me. Maybe 5 hours of snow and an EAGLE upset will make my day.

Looks like the surface low is east of previous runs, especially north of DC. H5 however looks about the same looking on my phone. Maybe exact path at H5 is still "up in the air "?!?

20 minutes ago, Ji said:

sorry when the euro shows 7-10 inches of snow in Loudoun County, im not going to complain too much

Ji, you're starting to show your age, you're settling. 

2 minutes ago, Interstate said:

You know that means Gloom and Doom

Not sure about  that. Maybe we're suffering from STF, storm thread fatigue. Nothing wrong with the overnight runs. The guidance is moving the storm more south and east which will be good for everyone but we're still 3.5 days from first flakes. LOL

7 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

You know we are not close enough to game time where the low couldn’t keep sliding SE…open it up at h5 keep it positive titled and further south …mix in some extra confluence and boom …we are smoking cirrus…likely no…impossible well who knows but my time on this earth has told me nothing is a lock.   

Brother, you need to again start drinking heavily!

45 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Route 28.  The great divide…66 is the other one. 

If for some reason it's a fail in Gainesville, I can always look to the hills west of me for the snow.

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Probably wiser to pay more attention to the 500mb changes at this range and not so much r/s lines and amounts just yet. We saw some positive things all around at 18z. Now we rest up for Dr No in a couple hours.

This is going to be a fun storm for PWC, I believe.

hr 96 at myrtle Beach

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

The Pivotal map seems low... this is what I get from WxBell.

Kuchera 

So to my untrained eye, the EURO places the ULL in sw VA and it moves basically northeast from there while the GFS has it move basically through west VA. What causes the difference between the two? 

Close to 6 days out and somebody starts a storm thread. From now on let's just have CAPE or WINTERWXLUVR start the storm threads.

Over the last few days there have been concerned about that ocean storm mucking up everything. I notice that the ocean storm is still there and moving out so have things changed in that regard?

30 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I'll try to make a more thorough post later, but as best as I can see, we want that ocean storm to stay offshore and try and act somewhat like a 50/50 storm to suppress the flow and force the storm for next weekend under us.  Too strong and west and it will crush that subsequent storm.  Too weak and OTS and that storm may cut.  

Are you saying that there is no way that the ocean storm could give us a decent hit? Isn't that a robust enough of a HP to  keep the cold air supplied to us?

1 hour ago, jaydreb said:

Is the GFS just broken lately?   Seems messed up on tropical tidbits and weatherbell.  

Putting the EURO in its place earlier this week took it out of the GFS.