Wonderdog

1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

I am confident in the chilly part on Xmas…the rest is just sugar plums dancing in my head

Still like the ridging out west next week.

Well, GFS has a coastal developing next week but more work needs to be done.

2 hours ago, baltosquid said:

The trend on the ensembles at the h5 level for next week is pretty interesting. All three have some combination of the NS trough digging more, SW to our south getting stronger and the ridging we’re under moving west, allowing some colder air to reach us. Decent agreement on a 50/50 low being around. Ridging continues to retrograde into/over/past Greenland and northern Canada. Just flipping through the past few days’ runs for Wednesday/Thursday, particularly the EPS and GEPS, show how things can look more workable heading towards Christmas, or at least become more winter feeling with less ridiculously high temperatures. Maybe we can sneak in a tracking opportunity before the holidays. Very curious to see if the 12z ensembles continue the trend, particularly the EPS which really wants to build ridging in the west more than the others. If that could come to fruition, despite the strong trough off the west coast we could potentially avoid the worst consequences of that.

A trend back to the GFS run of a week ago would work. 

7 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

The trend on the ensembles at the h5 level for next week is pretty interesting. All three have some combination of the NS trough digging more, SW to our south getting stronger and the ridging we’re under moving west, allowing some colder air to reach us. Decent agreement on a 50/50 low being around. Ridging continues to retrograde into/over/past Greenland and northern Canada. Just flipping through the past few days’ runs for Wednesday/Thursday, particularly the EPS and GEPS, show how things can look more workable heading towards Christmas, or at least become more winter feeling with less ridiculously high temperatures. Maybe we can sneak in a tracking opportunity before the holidays. Very curious to see if the 12z ensembles continue the trend, particularly the EPS which really wants to build ridging in the west more than the others. If that could come to fruition, despite the strong trough off the west coast we could potentially avoid the worst consequences of that.

A trend back to the GFS run of a week ago would work. 

41 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I wouldn't completely write off next week for a storm. Early next week is the beginning of a pattern change, and models tend to struggle a bit more with the stream interactions and associated disturbances. The lack of cold will be an issue should guidance grant us a 'new' storm threat leading up to Christmas .

Sure looks like the GFS is trying to bring that storm north, somewhat.

31 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

LOL! How about that 12z run? Is there a trend now?

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2021121412&fh=165&dpdt=loop&mc=&pwplus=1

 

I was just going to give you kudos but you beat me to it.

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

Very nice indeed.  That should be rather chilly for us if it verifies.  Things are looking positive so far to not have Torchmas

I really like possible overrunning events. Maybe in a week.

Nice looking ridge out west.

Virga in Gainesville, 36°

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

if all we're talking about is whether a thread should've been made Saturday - totally agree. it was too early. if we are complaining still.... I've got an issue with it.

I just don't want to pick on one person primarily because they are young, enthusiastic, and want to get off on a good start by making a successful thread (which this wasn't -- wrong horse to bet on!). that was (and still is) me. I'm guessing the lesson has been learned without piling on.

Lol, piling on is the best way to learn. But where was the oversight?

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Lol, it’s gonna be funny if on Wednesday everyone is saying “wow I wish we could get some meaningful precipitation”

You're turning into a downer man. Buck up!

Slowly but surely the cold air seems to be working its way toward the mid Atlantic region as winter gets closer. I like the look depicted on 12/13.

14 hours ago, mattie g said:

My notes say I got 1.5" here in Burke and that we were progged to get smacked about a week out until everything shifted 100 miles north and a little west a few days before gametime.

Perfect example of the tendency for the snow line to move north just prior to game time.

35 with snow swirling on I-66 between Gainesville and Manassas 

24 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I'll pull out my digital shovel

That time period has been wavering back and forth wrt digital snow. Now it's back again, digitally of course. Maybe it bears watching brother.  

17 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I've seen more digital snow this year than all of last winter...and its only Nov....this can't be good

I was thinking the same thing. Early December looks to have a few shots of cold air to come through the area. Might be a good opportunity to score early.

Nice looking storm depicted on 6z GFS for next week. Can we get the storm to come together a little more south of us before it explodes offshore?

Looks like over next couple of weeks, a clipper type storm follows the passage of a cold front. Is this indicative of a LA Nina pattern?

Digital snow getting close to Gainesville on November 6, according to the 0z gfs run. It is beginning. 

37 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Imagine this setup in Jan if the high was better placed.

Nice looking coastal

On 7/21/2021 at 7:58 AM, Chrisrotary12 said:

Yes I've been to a PGA event. The firefighter who played in the Masters and US Open a couple years back is from my hometown. So yes. 

There is a gap between low handicappers and touring pros. But it isn't as big as many think it is is all I'm saying. 

Pro Golfers Are Not THAT Good - Here's Why - Adam Young Golf

Honestly, the biggest difference between touring pros and low handicappers is 1) ability to remove flag from the equation and 2) the greens. 

The PGA tour plays on greens that are massive and for the most part, they can two putt from anywhere. If a touring pro removes the flag and aims 20 ft left, then misses target 30 ft more left....they're still on the green a large percentage of the time. 

The greens that we all play on are barely 30 ft wide. So missing the target = missing the green = bogeys. 

The biggest difference is between the ears.

4 hours ago, H2O said:

Of all things to get bent about

 

H2O, is this the way it,'s going to be now that you're retired.

13 hours ago, blueberryfaygo said:

The sign in front of the store says if you are not vaccinated you still need to wear a mask.. however if you are vaccinated, then you dont need to wear one.  

According to my information, the vast majority of the severe cases of covid are people who are not vaccinated.  And that break through cases are rare and usually mild. 

So if you are telling me that Howard County has a high vaccination rate, then the misinformed are the the people in Ellicott city walmart who are vaccinated and still wearing a mask are.  

No vaccine really prevents you from getting COVID, but they do diminish the effects. Depends partly on length of time you are exposed

59 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Coating on the deck, grass, etc at the house.  Light snow falling.  

I thought I saw a few flurries on I-66 around Centreville with temps falling thru the 50's at around 12:30.

Heavy rain  with hail in Gainesville 57°