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Wonderdog

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Posts posted by Wonderdog

    January 2023 Mid-Long Range Disco

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 hour ago, jayyy said:


    Or… it’ll show a workable pattern again at 0z tonight emoji23.png

    The GEFS dropped 40” for the DC - Bal Corridor between now and February 3rd less than 48 hours ago. I don’t trust any model from 384 out, ensemble or otherwise. All of the waffling we’re seeing day to day on long range models indicates a pattern shift is definitely coming. I wouldn’t read much into the specifics until we get closer, as we’ve seen a crazy spread in outcomes over the past few days alone.

    Remember, ensembles like the GEFS showed us getting a MECS+ during last weeks outbreak only 7 days out, only to see the storm run 1,000 miles west of here. Hard to say models have a grasp on much of anything, especially in the 384hr timeframe. IMO, models have been struggling pretty hard with how they’re handling the PAC. The difference day to day, even run to run is pretty stark.

    ybe it's an indication of the efficacy of the models.

    January 2023 Mid-Long Range Disco

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

    2009.  Snow was melting fast.  I think it was raining.  If we could get a quarter inch of snow with the arctic air it would be real nice.  Make that happen.  You are a Wonderdog for Christ sake! 

    That snow was about two weeks old, if I remember correctly. That doesn’t count as a white Christmas. But for you, I'll see what I can do. We are in an epic pattern after all so we got that going for us.

    January 2023 Mid-Long Range Disco

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    3 hours ago, BristowWx said:

    That will seem awesome even with a tiny bit of snow on the shaded areas…a tiny bit…that can’t be impossible 

    Brother,  when was the last time you saw snow on the ground  on Christmas? And I bet that when you went outside,  it was colder than a witch's twitch. You're misremembering the awesomeness.  :)

    January 2023 Mid-Long Range Disco

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

    Just read our previous thread.  From page 1.  a whole lotta excited about a memorable stretch of winter..  the word epic was used quite a bit.  Some real weather porn images.  Turned out they were just like real porn.  Fantasy. 

    Just like the last year or two. Fools Gold

     

    • Like 1

    December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    43 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

    We are in the game. Sure this thing could cut to Minneapolis or slide to Bermuda. But that is the song and dance for most trackable events around here. On to 0z.

    I agree. We are close. We had a correction at 18z. At 0z, do we have a trend, or another smaller correction 

    December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    25 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

    For sure. Still plenty of time for things to change or swing back the other way.

    Doesn't really appear that much needs to change to get some snow out of this. 6 to 7 days out from a very complex system. One little change upstream may be all it will take. Certainly not set in stone.

    December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

    what does your gut tell you where this one is headed.  just curious.  mine tells me a strong primary low north of KY is bad but maybe in this type scenario it can work.  I feel like we saw this recently like early last week/previous week or so when this Friday looked to be a more wintry event.  it evolved obviously.  isn't this the same really?  

    This is a Miller B setup as it stands today. They usually don't work out for us, do they?

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