Wonderdog

6z GFS run has a nice looking coastal snowstorm on the 22nd but the Western ridge looks somewhat flat. Period to watch anyway. 

Moderate snow continues in Gainesville. But my snow blower won't start.

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

Actually sticking.  37.  Who knew?

Just came in from walking my dog. Light to almost semi-moderate snow and 36. I knew it wanted to snow in Gainesville. Can't wait for the 22nd storm to usher in Spring.

Who would have thought. 

1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

^p5…I would eat fecal matter for that one…without condiments.

Brother,  get a grip! You must have condiments. 

That's a stout HP (1048) showing up near the end of 12z run with a juicy storm in the SW eventually moving east bringing snow to Myrtle Beach.  I got a feeling. 

On 2/25/2023 at 3:49 PM, AtlanticWx said:

interesting how the same camps snow-wise for the 28th storm are applicable for the 4th storm. for example euro & cmc are both colder and south for the 28th storm in comparison to gfs. i imagine we'll have to wait a few days to see how that storm plays out so we understand how the next storm plays out

We already know how it's gonna play out. Whoever is paying for model projections past 5 days, (and I suspect it's everyone), is a waste of our money.

Fat flakes in Gainesville 

1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

0z GFS will be a OV mauler.  It’s headed that way…redevelop near cape cod…NNE crush job.  Easy to read this fortune cookie.  

Unless 

27 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Yes the only constant is a storm in the eastern US in 8 days.  That keeps shifting north on every op run.  Worth watching.  

Models keep making the same changes around the same time.

8 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Do you have gut feeling one way  or another?  I mean where you are there is a bit more..more than a bit...of fudge factor allowed to  still get a decent event.  Down here we can go from victory lap to game over in a NY minute. 

Brother you're right.  Today was the definitive beginning of the end for this threat. Just like the others.

10 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

Of course it’s the weekend.  We’ve got snow days to use up and can’t get any mid-week storms. 

Don't worry. I'm sure FX County will find a way to give the kidsore than enough time off before the end of the school year. 

1 hour ago, Ji said:

we couldnt get the threat to survive 24 hours. 

That's because it never existed. 

8 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

What a game!

Don't be sorry. We made the Super Bowl and one of the most exciting ever regardless of outcome.

I'm a big Eagles fan but their defense was clearly controlled by Chiefs O line. Never heard Reddick's or Sweat's name once making a play. That being said,  there was too much slipping on the turf.. You'd think the NFL would not let that happen. 

2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Latest WB GEFS extended throws us a Hail Mary but it takes us until early March to get there….

 

 

I'm sure that will verify.

Just now, Superstorm93 said:

Was just about to ask if anyone saw anything with that high Z/low CC band that moved through...

It didn't last long. 

Light sleep falling in Manassas 39°

1 hour ago, LeesburgWx said:

3 runs in a row with the same solution.. That’s worthy this year

Agreed. Five days out is when the GFS has been locking in with weather events this year. This just happens to involve snow for us this time. 

GFS 18z run at H5  for 2/12 looks less positively tilted. Maybe something to watch.

30 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Couple of guys from back around 2005 will remember this

Joe B was an emerging star. Very enthusiastic he went for couple big events and nailed them and quickly garnered an increasing following

Then came the Vodka Cold debacle where, whatever year it was, from mid December to mid February he continually touted the Vodka Cold pouring into eastern USA in just 10-15 days. It never happened and many temperature predictions ended up off by over 20 degrees. That began the ending of my model interest beyond 7 days which continues to this day.

Now in 2006-07 the advertised pattern change did come in Feb and a good job was done in 2009/10 correctly predicting a return to cold and snow after a tepid January.  So, a job really well done twice in 15 years.  Can’t take those numbers to the bank 

 

He did.

Flurries in Manassas 36°

7 hours ago, Solution Man said:

Region wide warning level snowfall 234-252 this time. Probably nothing next run

You were right. 

33 and cloudy in Gainesville with just shy of an inch overnight. Of course,  I didn't see one flake fall.

19 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

DCA is going to end up about 53/38 for Jan with the lowest temp for the month of 29!  What makes this so bad is the last three winters snowfall totals were 0.6, 5.4 and 13.2.  HORRIBLE

When talking about where to live for retirement I never wanted the Carolinas because I hated the idea of months of bare trees and dreary, windy, rainy coat-wearing weather, but with no snow most years.  We have that HERE now!  I'd rather be in a very warm place and travel once a winter for snow.  [Sorry for bantering]

Isn't 13.2 inches of snow very close to normal for the Capital City?

Cold rain beginning to fall in Gainesville. Temps have dropped to 39!