Wonderdog

1 hour ago, Solution Man said:

Glad to see you back 

Thanks

18 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Nice NW trend there

Very nice

Snow showers in Gainesville 44 degrees 

1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

You serious Clark?  Miller B…the B stands for ball buster.  IDK if I have the chops to pursue that scenario.  I’m getting old and impatient.  I should move to Buffalo!

If we score 6-8 inches from a Miller B,C, or Q, it's like taking it to the man.

Just now, BristowWx said:

You might think that but if you do don't give up your summer house.  

I'm more interested in the Miller B on the 19th somehow impacting our region.

17 minutes ago, yoda said:

Correction... 4-9" through 78

I'm in.

I just heard Brown is out Monday night. No snow for us.

It seemed ten or fifteen years ago, when we tracked a storm for about a week, and it then showed marked improvement, we were pretty confident that we would score with that storm with a lead time of 5 to 6 days. Now the models seem to be all over the place up to a couple of days before game time. Frustrating. 

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Who suggested that?

The last few runs? Maybe 

1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

Look at hr 192.  Total dry coast to coast. All four corners.  Maybe that’s just a wipe slate clean reset.  Not often you see that 

It's the big reset, and that's not a good thing. 

6 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Yes.  Agree.  I guess a lot of the fate of this rests on what happens with the storm before it on Saturday.  The one that gives my mom/dad 24 solid inches up in Rochester, MI.  

You need to vist the folks and fast.

1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Absolute BS.  I won't be watching.

It's worth it just to watch Tyreek.

It's one of a myriad of possibilities six or seven days out. But we do have the players on the board. 

42 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It’s over

42 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It’s over

For it to be over, it had to have started. 

48 minutes ago, 87storms said:

I don’t know if I trust a midweek digital snow, though maybe that’s the new norm.

I like the look of this and it's smack dab in the middle of winter. 

Sleet, snow pellets, and yes rain drops in Gainesville 

Gotta have the block.

I'll buy a 5-8 inch paste job too. How about you BristowWx?

Just now, BristowWx said:

There you are.  Been wondering where you were.  This weekend might have legs.  Just maybe..

We are in an El Nino right? Get ready for a 2009-2010 reduction. How have you been?

For the last few hours in Gainesville,  light snow and pellets, 40 degrees and looking forward to this weekend. 

Last year was a Nina.

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45 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

RN/IP in Chantilly.  48F.  WTF

Brain and sleet in Springfield 47° whiskey Tango foxtrot 

3 hours ago, Heisy said:

So I’ve finally checked out lol, but it’s really amazing to me how the pattern of waves tracking from around Alaska down to the Southwest continues until the end of month and shows no signs of stopping. What is it going to take to get a stable +PNA?

Here is the 12z euro at the end of the run. Does this pattern look familiar to anyone?!?! A developing block, but we have a SE ridge bridge connecting to it. An overly strong wave coming out of the southwest and seemingly another ready to head that way too. Feel like we’re stuck in purgatory. We’ve been unable to mute the SE ridge all year.




.

You don't stay in Purgatory forever. This looks promising.  I recall an east coast snowstorm that hit South Jersey with 4 inches of snow around late March 1997, I think. Think it was rain around here. Buckle up.

10 hours ago, BristowWx said:

At least next winter won’t be this winter. A whole new set of failure scenarios await.  Onward and upward!  

I like your optimism brother. 

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I finally had a chance to compare the different guidance (euro/CMC/GFS) and the differences are minor for that range.  It really comes down to really insignificant (in a global sense) differences in timing, confluence, and amplitude of a scale that the models won't get right for a while yet.  I don't see any compelling reason to say the euro is any more likely that the gfs or even a suppressed solution, of which there are still several options.  

 

But remember, even in a good setup, the odds from this range greatly favor a fail for the simple reason that (especially in this specific setup because of the time of year) we only have a very narrow range that is a win.  We are talking about a box of about 50-100 miles at most...that we need the storm to end up tracking for us to get snow.  The non snow solutions include EVERYTHING ELSE IN THE WORLD.  So while I don't think the current evidence suggests any one solution is more likely than another... obviously if I had to take option A: the storm will end up inside this very narrow box" or option B, the storm will end up anywhere else on the whole planet, you would have to be really bad at math and geography to choose A.  

And I was just going to ask the likelihood that the GFS is correct 7-8 days out from the arrival of the storm considering the signal for this time period has been there for a few days now.