Wonderdog

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

GFS early next Monday storm was a one run phenom.

It will come back.

2 hours ago, BristowWx said:

It does…but what’s 2-3 inches going to come from?  Wave one looks like it’s dying on the vine.  Wave 2 seems to be trending toward rain.  Nothing after it appears.  2-3 inch mean seems skewed by some overamped members.  Is that wrong?  

Brother,  I know it's not on anyone's radar but I've watched that storm in the SE precipitation very slowly inch it’s way north to where it's reached se VA on 1/30. Cold air is close to the north.. All we need is for a miracle to happen and for somehow have that juicy storm to make a left and move up the coast. Doable?

56 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

@BristowWx and @Wonderdogcan tell u, we suck at snow here

Speak for yourself Solution Man, I got on the board the other day with a mixed sleet/occasional half-melted snowflake or two. As I said the other day, the rest will be gravy! lol

1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

But holy cow eastern Canada is cold.  468 and I think there is a -52 in there.  

Looks like just a modest trend north would give us a warning level event.

17 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Some of us who have been around for a long time just don't care to hear the constant negatives even if we know what the reality is. I'd personally rather look at and discuss the potential positives with the knowledge that it probably won't pan out than be told over and over and over that we need everything to go absolutely f*cking perfectly or else we're toast...and even then we're probably toast.

Well put. The naysayers need to remember the last three words of this thread.

A mix of sleet and rain in Gainesville 40°

44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This tells the story 

 

But it used to be 12/13 days ago. 

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Individual ens all over it as well. Hate to be pessimistic but I'm sure we will find a way to fail. Get it within 5 or 6 days and I will start believing.

This time period has been advertised for a while now so it doesn't appear to be going away. The devil though is in the details. 

38 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Feb 3 it says tho

Boundary line makes it to the Mid Atlantic  by 2/3 and hangs around till a redevelopment occurs and moves out on 2/5. An interesting period for sure only 9 or 10 days away. 

4 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

You could say the same of the gfs lol

 

None of them are right, right now 

2 hours ago, BristowWx said:

New month same theme.  It’s not cold enough at our latitude.  The deep cold never pushes through and the SER lingers to make sure it has no chance.  

Be happy that there has been multiple times over the years that we have woken up to find that the pattern that was considered to be locked in magically changed. Our time is coming. Besides February has been a good month for MA snowstorms.

Reporting from Gainesville- precipitation has begun to fall lightly. I detected a few microscopic white things interspersed with light mist/rain. I am going to assume it was snow falling which puts my backyard on the board. Thus going forward from today, any snow that might fall is gravy.

Future radar shows some semblance of snow very close to Gainesville  today. Would be nice to see a few flakes flying around for 5-10 minutes. 

Will be interesting to see if the 18z GFS run verifies for the path of the Gulf lp in a few days. Just doesn’t seem right. A strange path for the lp when it reaches the east course.

1 hour ago, Heisy said:

Thought it would help but I guess not. Put the 18z gfs on animation on wxbell. It’s really insane how every shortwave goes over the ridge and has a tough time getting out of the southwest. It’s like there is a vacuum west of Mexico sucking every shortwave backwards


.

And all of them seem to be taking the same track. I would be surprised if that happens. 

1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

probably because it tends to melt once the sun comes out in the piedmont and coastal plain and we know its really winters last gasp of breath.  relying on March to save our winter is just like moving across the bay in a leaking boat...you might make it but most likely it will sink. 

Don't forget March 1993.

Looks like things are a changing. Into what is anyone's guess 

Basically a frontal passage for MA.

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

I'll enjoy the winter we have. Perfect day to be outside doing pretty much anything.

Except using the snowblower.

5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Need that primary in Tn

Yep, six days out gives us 24 hours until the models are locked in.

12 hours ago, BristowWx said:

Man I’m not sure I’m cut out for this hobby.  Massive rain storm in Jan and there is warm air pushing in behind it.  Warm and wet. Warm and dry.  

If we get lucky brother, we could squeeze out a few flakes on Friday before we need the Ark.

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It looks a bit convoluted, discombobulated, and confused. Been that way for awhile though.

Is there any blocking going on on this run?

2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

985 off delmarva…ok.  

I like it. It's all starting to come together.  I like the trend.

21 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

Yyyeeeaaahhh…probably a lot of 31-34F verbatim. If we had a strong low take that exact track, it might be *just* cold enough. Don’t want that thing to stall and rot though like the op gfs. 

Any hints that it could go negative,?

46 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I am trying not to get too excited and remain pretty firm on getting inside 5 days before erupting with enthusiasm. 

Well put brother. Let me know when I need to get to the Giant for supplies