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eduggs

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Everything posted by eduggs

  1. eduggs
    In the calm in Morristown. Waiting for the backside winds.
  2. eduggs
    I'm buying that. Fortunately it's 45 kts not 55 kts. At 45 we get lots of medium limbs and power outages. At 55 we get large limbs and trees down (esp if ground were more saturated), impassable roads, roof damage etc. I think we (locally inland NJ) are right near the lower threshold for widespread significant wind damage.
  3. eduggs
    I hope people are recording these waterspouts on the east end and the SCT shore. Nice parade of low topped cells.
  4. eduggs
    In Morris County the worst of the conditions so far have been reminiscent of a strong to borderline severe thunderstorm. The low vis and howling winds were also somewhat reminiscent to a strong nor'easter. Max gusts thus far were probably the 2nd strongest of the summer. Many of the susceptible branches may have been blown down by thunderstorms earlier this summer.
  5. eduggs
    Gonna be some record stream/river crests in EPA. River levels are up in up in NNJ but nothing crazy yet.
  6. eduggs
    1) With tropical systems you should never really rule out flooding problems. Small shifts or unmodeled mesoscale features can produce tremendous totals. 2) Flooding (river, flash, coastal) produces the most widespread damage (especially in NJ) and is the most frequent storm related threat. River flooding in particular, caused by widespread excessive rainfall, produces catastrophic and sometimes long lasting effects.
  7. eduggs
    Morristown hit 50 kts, maybe higher last hour. There should be lots of limbs scattered about the roadways.
  8. eduggs
    Thanks for all your graphics. Can you provide time frames with the totals? Is that hourly, daily, multi day? A few local totals (near Dover) look like they might be 2 day totals.
  9. eduggs
    What you are experiencing is what I was concerned about further east. Fortunately the primarily rain axis stayed west.
  10. eduggs
    Me too. Where I'm staying in north central NJ is flooding prone and I was concerned.
  11. eduggs
    I'm not calling model bust. I'm saying that relative to where things stood 2 days ago, considering the tropical storm path, jet structure, PWATS, time of year, and atmospheric instability, I consider this an underperformance relative to potential. This has not been a very big rain producer in most of NJ.
  12. eduggs
    You are pretty far NW - relatively speaking.
  13. eduggs
    Based on the past 2 days off inter-model averages, I'd say it's a bit of an underperformer in the QPF department for much of the State. NW areas have been consistently modeled in the 2-6" range. It's not over yet.
  14. eduggs
    What do you have in the bucket?
  15. eduggs
    Almost certainly a tornado. Was pretty clear on radar and eyewitness accounts.
  16. eduggs
    In most of NJ, rain underperformed but wind and isolated severe have mostly delivered as expected. The past hour has really felt like a tropical storm.
  17. eduggs
    Should have cut back 50% or more. In my experience, wind products are always overdone outside shorelines, exposed terrain, and with convection. That said, the backside of this is gonna be gusty. Surface wind is a very local phenomenon. Models lack both the vertical and horizontal resolution to resolve it. And the resulting averaging overestimates winds in areas not prone to it.
  18. eduggs
    Winds are impressive today. But clearly some of the really big wind numbers on yesterday's ECM and UK products were overdone.
  19. eduggs
    Too bad most places in the US never buried their power lines like Germany, the Netherlands, and other industrialized nations.
  20. eduggs
    Looks like Sussex and maybe eastern Nassau are gonna get raked. Get those cameras ready Fire Island to the Hamptons if you wanna capture a landfalling waterspout.
  21. eduggs
    Looks a little high to me where I am in Morris County. Definitely gusty but not sure we even saw 40kt locally. Maybe up in the higher elevations.
  22. eduggs
    The intense rotating cells kind of pulsed off and skipped northeastward from SNJ to LI. But it's still possible a few cells pop up unexpectedly. The back edge of rain is fast approaching, but winds should still be strong for a few hours.
  23. eduggs
    Some nasty cells heading towards LI and probably SCT over the next hour or two. There will likely be rotation in some of those.
  24. eduggs
    Definitely looked like a weak couplet a few miles SE of JFK. Probably onshore and weakened by now.
  25. eduggs
    A weak waterspout near Jamaica Bay wouldn't be shocking right about now. Not sure the local visibility is favorable for spotting.
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