eduggs

The system has been sharpening up slightly early on, and shifting the R/S line in the mid-Atl. NW... then flattening later on to benefit NE. The cause appears to be increasingly disjointed waves/ areas of vorticity. Overall tendency is a weaker storm with energy hanging back. More snow for places that have been receiving a little of it lately.

That's already happened numerous times since late Nov. in the long range. All models have been biased too cold in the east and too warm in the west. Until cold gets inside of 7 days on multiple models for a few runs in a row, I will doubt it.

Daytime highs, nighttime (high) lows, days with rain, total rain all probably near winter-to-date records. Coastal plane snowfall throughout the area near record lows. I see no reason to expect that to chance anytime soon. The same features keep popping up around 7 days out and then basically holding. Still hoping for positive changes though.

Overall I think most short and mid-range models have done a great job this winter. Obviously they are all suspicious out at the end of their ranges. But inter-model agreement and run to run consistency has been relatively high IMO this winter. Few big head fakes. The problems have been people taking 10+ day charts and running with them.

0z NAM still sending a surface reflection to WPA. Too much easterly wind component as a result and it takes too long for the primary to completely fill and winds to shift to the NE. No meaningful change. Maybe a few hours of snow or mix City N & W, but primarily rain outside the mountains. The event is also shaping up to be a little dryer and quicker than indicated a day or two ago.

3 weeks of deep winter climo left and ~7 weeks of extended winter. Regardless of who "cancels" winter, it can snow in late March. But even in cold winters of old, mid-Feb. always started to feel like Spring on a sunny day. Spring is rapidly approaching.

We'd need a radically different upper level setup to lock in high surface pressure. Trof axis is also way too far west. Really not so different than several other rain storms we've had this winter.

I hope it pans out. But I don't see anything to latch onto yet. 10+ days is just too far out.

Yeah I think we're screwed for the forseeable future. Maybe far N&W gets a little something. I don't see anything promising right now. Not Monday, not Wednesday, not deep into the extended. Maybe it cools down at some point, but there are no distinct and promising threats. Ensembles still say the City has a chance of stealing an inch here or there. I'm doubtful of even that low threshold for the time being.

The leading edge of your round 2 snowstorm is clearly evident on radar spiraling through central PA. Feeder-band-esque. Lots of vorticity and unstable air with that feature.

GFS closer but still not there except extreme N&W. Trof flatter with a little more vorticity trailing behind than last run. Just need to keep the shifts coming.

0z ICON with one of the better runs of the year. Two solid snow threats in the mid-range and then cooking up another big one at the end. The upper levels look suspect as early at 60 hours out, so I don't trust it at all without support. But at least it shows how things could theoretically turn for the better.

The ICON looks more like the NAM than the GFS/RGEM thankfully. It's also hanging back energy in the trof... something that was apparent on the 0z NAM and even a little on the 18z EC. That is a sign of the displaced and unphased shortwaves, which could weaken but also drag out the event.

It looks like model convergence towards snow for the Poconos through Catskills and Taconics and mostly rain southeast of there. The initially sharpish shortwave in the Ohio Valley induces a weak inland primary SLP and WAA through the Mid-Atl. and our area. That screws us. But thereafter (and likely too late for us) the wave dampens and everything slips east. A key will be how strong the shortwave and primary SLP are initially. Thunderstorm development out of the Gulf tends to sharpen trofs. But if it can stay flat enough like the NAM, we might get close to the snow line. I expect the NAM to move west and warmer and the GFS to tick south and colder. Any movement by the EC, UK, and CMC will be indicative.

UK is close for Sun night-Monday but has nudged slightly warmer and westward the past 2 runs. All in all an uninspiring 0z. Hard to see a lot of wiggle room in the outcome, especially on the eastern flank. But we're definitely close enough to stay invested. Even the ICON scenario with snow for most cannot be completely discounted.

GFS queueing up a parade of rain storms per usual. At least it hasn't fooled us with too many fantasy blizzards so far this winter.

So far tonight it looks like ICON/NAM vs RGEM/GFS. UK and EC will be tonight's tie breaker. At least it feels like we have a shot this time. But being stuck rooting for a wave to be flatter is never a good position to be in.

So we have the 12z JMA and 0z UK showing snowstorms locally. That's a start! EPS and GEPS had a few hits at 12z on the individuals too.

I'm not trying to be pessimistic. But if you look at the 500mb chart, the ULL is over Chicago on Sun. night. That is unfavorable for us except with the deepest arctic airmass in place, in which case we'd get IP and ZR. The secondary SLP tracking near or south of us doesn't save us because the lower and mid-levels have already been torched due to the position of the ULL and primary SLP.

What a weenie map. Must be some phantom sleet somewhere in there for NJ, though I didn't see it in the panels. No snow anywhere near NJ or SENY on that run.

To me, the problem is that every wave takes the same path: CO to IL to Ontario. The upper levels drive SLP formation, which in turn drives fronts and airmass advection.

Lots can change as weather forecasting is unpredictable. But storm 1 is not looking promising except maybe distant N or NE suburbs with some ZR to start and inverted trof snow showers to end. I'm more interested in storm 2, but the trof axis has been immovable for days of model runs and it is too far west. A break from the rain and some decent cold still looks to be 10 days away, if it comes at all. I'm hoping for some positive surprises.

Could very well be. But the 0z was a slight step back from 12z in terms of wintry hopes locally. The trof has sharpened up, strengthening the primary SLP and increasing warm SW winds. Not the 0z I was hoping for.

For the moment, I'm firmly of the opinion that the Sun-Mon event will be rain for the coastal plane through our area. I don't like the trough axis being so far west - it virtually guarantees a primary slp near the Lakes. This looks too much like so many events so far this year. That said, there is some counter evidence to potentially threaten the narrative. The 18z ICON, 12z UK, and 12z CMC were all pretty close to a wintry event. The 12z EC wasn't too far off. And the 12z JMA looked like a snowstorm. So far the 0z ICON shifted slightly the wrong way. But any additional movement SE and/or colder for the rest of the 0z suite would put us close to the game.