eduggs
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Everything posted by eduggs
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I think you are onto something. Sometimes all that is required is the 0.25mi vis. When it's really cold and a little windy, the visibility is often that low. Doesn't mean the intensity of the snow is actually that high. I think the very cold temperatures today has a lot to do with all the heavy snow obs... unfortunately the obs are not well correlated to actual liquid/hr.
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Poughkeepsie with 8 consecutive heavy snow obs and counting. The preceding 3 were moderate snow with 2 at 0.25mi vis. I've never seen that before... even in 1993 and 1996.
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I just noticed that there were 8 consecutive heavy snows obs at Sussex Airport this afternoon and evening. All at 7F. That's awesome. Doesn't happen often. 10 consecutive at Danbury, which is maybe even more impressive. Wow.
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Similar here but it hasn't increased the total snow depth due to compaction. Keeps the roads fcked though and lots of work for the snow plow drivers.
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OMG
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I always love that radar view! But man... missed out on 4+ additional hours of mostly snow by about 10 miles!! What a great storm Sussex to Rockland to Westchester to Fairfield!! A few flakes finally mixing back in though after a few hours of all sleet.
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Total pelt fest out there, wow! Just cleared a long driveway and the sleet plus windblown accumulated about 1/2" in an hour and a half. But new snow depth is still at 10". Really dense snow to move. Congrats to those north of this stuff!
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That sounds reasonable. Radar looks like the mix continues and dryslot is now evident on radar in CPA. Curious to see if the NYC reporting sites can make it to 12".
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Sussex to northern Fairfield is just pounding! Missed the big totals by about 20 miles here in central Morris. Still was a fabulous morning.
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The hi-res NAM is showing several hours of light snow tomorrow morning - with light accumulations. Couple inches up the HV but even something down to NYC and LI. Not much support from other guidance but it would be an enjoyable ending.
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Awesome! Getting north of the mix line was key. Looks like you should pick up several more inches.
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90% sleet over the past 30 minutes. Measured 7.5" at 11:30am and 10" at 3pm. Not much accumulation after 1pm or so. Still showing 10" new so probably some compaction going on because of the sleet.
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Snow sleet mix in central Morris at the moment. Vis. is higher for the moment... fluctuates with the % of snow.
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I miss the days when people used the NCEP page for QPF, 925/850/700 temp, 850/700RH & omego, and 500mb heights. The snowmaps from Pivotal and TT that get thrown around online have really caused a dumbing down of meteorology.
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Yeah looks sweet for several more hours. Enjoy! Shame about the dryslot... hopefully there is some wraparound tomorrow morning.
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Remember that Pivotal or TT clown maps show the ptype colors based on model output and a ptype algorithm. If sleet is shown on Pivotal that doesn't mean the model precludes a mix of snow and sleet south of that line. And yes the HRRR has done a good job of sagging the mix line south. It also has the benefit of being run every hour.
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I'm not complaining. As I've mentioned, I've spent most of the day outside enjoying the snow. I'm defending the viewpoint that the NAM and its successor the RRFS did very well with this storm. It's discouraging that people have come to believe that 3rd party vendor clown maps represent the actual output of the weather models. This idea needs to be challenged so that it is dislodged from the collective understanding.
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Sleet briefly made it to Rockland and will probably mix in pretty far north as the dryslot approaches. The CMC and UK showed several runs where the mix line stayed south of the metro entirely. Even this afternoon's runs may not have mixed at all. Terrible!
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Show me where I said that.
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Exactly. People forget. This was talked about as a snowpocalypse for days. NWS was 15"+ for most of the area until really close in. I really hope the tail end of this overperforms. But so far great call by you!
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No. I have been confident about warning snow everywhere. I've also been confident about Putnam/Orange getting 12" plus. I've said numerous times I thought the battleground for double digits would be across southern Westchester extended east and west. This morning appeared to overperform either ratios or QPF. But the progression of the mix line played out very similarly to how the NAM depicted going back several days.
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You're getting fooled by Pivotal weather. Use QPF and temperature at available levels (700mb, 850mb) plus an estimate of ratios to guestimate snowfall.
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I just checked the 6z model runs. For NYC by 21z the NAM had about 0.87" liquid and the RGEM had 0.93". Almost the same. People are just getting fooled by the Pivotal clown map algorithm. Clown maps are really bad for the weather industry. They skew the data and lead to rampant misinterpretation.
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I'm looking out my window and it's 100% sleet right now. The NAM won. No other model was as fast or as far north with the mix line. Same thing in DC and PHI. People need to learn the difference between a CLOWN MAP and model output. Prior to 2010 or so this was not a problem. People used NCEP QPF and temperature maps. Hobbiest were better forecasters.
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THE NAM DOESN'T FORECAST SNOW.
