Chicago Storm
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Everything posted by Chicago Storm
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It indeed will close off way south, 500mb closed off south of the OK/TX border. .
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0z NAM is taking a step back. The trough is more positive tilt as it ejects out into the Plains, with more energy hanging back. Additionally, it may try to close off at 500mb well south.
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The HRRR and RAP are not good, especially the HRRR. .
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Trough a bit more neutral tilt and wave a bit more north. SLP did end up a bit north. Still on farther south end of guidance through.
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It's due to the heavier FGEN snows being to your north, and the main synoptic snows to your south.
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More organized trough this run, and a bit more neutral tilted earlier. This run is going to be more north and stronger/organized.
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18z NAM...Yet again coming in a bit further north with the wave as it push across the coast and into the West.
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It took a step, but still nowhere near other guidance. It actually has the same issue as the UKMET. The smaller waves ejecting out ahead of the main trough, which go into the phasing of everything, eject out sooner and are faster...thus the trough ends up more positive tilt.
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12z ECMWF is finally caving and coming north. Not sure to what degree yet though.
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LOT issued WSW as well. Will be out shortly.
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If you want a really far north option...Check out the 15z RAP...
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12z UKMET stayed well south, and is very similar to the 0z run. .
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12z FV was a bit north. It also had a more neutral tilt trough, with better phasing as well. .
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Remember how badly it did with last weekends storm...Most runs didn’t have above 9” anywhere. We know how that worked out... .
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12z GGEM north as well. H5 isn’t too far off the RGEM, just doesn’t have as good of an outcome. Still gets 1000mb SLP into SE. Missouri. .
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Southern trough is more organized, and goes neutral tilt faster. Some of those lead pieces of energy allow it to phase with northern stream faster. Thus, this run is stronger and further north. .
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12z GFS likely coming north. .
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12z RGEM is holding as well, similar to the 0z and 6z runs. 500mb tries to close off over C. Missouri by 48hr, with 999mb SLP in S. Illinois. .
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They won’t handle it as well as the hi-res. .
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It actually still does try to close off at 500mb by 54-57hr. SLP ends up between 6z and 0z runs. Main difference is just in precip field, with it not trying to close off until a bit later than the past two runs. You can see heavier snows break out across S. IL as that occurs. .
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To add to this... The difference hinge on the initial energy that ejects our and how it’s handled. Previous runs were a bit stronger and more organized, with helped close off 500mb and pull the main wave NE in the trough. This new run is a bit weaker and disorganized with those lead pieces of energy, so it doesn’t close off at 500mb and the main wave stays a bit further south in the through. However, there is more phasing this run that makes up for that loss. .
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There have been a few, just nothing really significant. I remember you as well. That was the glory days, until winter 2013/2014 came around. .
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12z NAM coming in a bit less amped that the 6z, and not too far off from the 0z run. Biggest difference is how initial pieces of energy ejects out are handled and developed within the trough. .
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It’s not surprising, given the NAM solution the past few runs. .
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I would say that... Most recent pure LES occurrence was 3/13-14/17 for those areas, which did provide accumulation. Actually had a couple inches of LES from that here as well. .
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