i like the moderate risk, i like a 10/15% tor. my only thought would have been to increase hail probs as well.
not often i give the spc an atta boy, but here you go.
Today was a fluke, but it goes to show why the new SPC format is flawed trash.
The science is currently not good enough and never will be good enough to set a min/max on hail size, wind speed and tor strength in outlooks and MD's.
kinda unremarkable, if you dig into chicago weather history.
it happens more than you think, that is a lack of snow during winter months at times. i'm not just talking recently over the past few years either.
big-time model guidance fail for today's event, and even in event performance was horrendous.
where upwards of 4-8" of snow occurred, the hrrr had only a dusting and the euro had only 1-3", for example.
statistical information on winter in chicago, since the historic winter of 2013/14...
like i've said, this is the snowiest and coldest season we've seen in years.