ldub23

Nothing really has changed. EXCEPT THIS!!!!!!!!

Hopefully something gets going All you need to do is look at that picture and its clear just how hostile the atlantic is. The el nino pacific looks good but right now shear and dry air is crushing the atlantic. Alot of forecasts are down the drain unless things change. Maybe some moisture will get to the atlantic and the shear will drop. Will be interesting to see if 97L can develop. Will be more interesting to watch than josephine.

Looks rather weak to me but its better than the totally dead GFS.

GFS says neither wave will do anything. Dead thru Aug and the el nino in the atlantic has no end.

At least JB is excited. Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 29m The raging Weatherbull is loose on http://Weatherbell.com premium showing the unnamed feature that will lash Cape Cod the islands with tropical storm force wind and rain And then it shows WHY THE REAL HURRICANE SEASON IS ABOUT TO BEGIN, ( IMO)BUCKLE UP

GFS and Euro show nothing

I have been reading the GFS shows the MJO doesnt get favorable in the atlantic thru its whole run. Easterly waves arent doing anything but who knows how many weak storms the westerly waves coming off virginia will produce. not until the flood pattern ends will the season get active but by then it may be very late. Still think sept20-oct 10 might have a few real storms. This just shows how meaningless SST's are.

That already occurred the last week of July and first week of August. We had a two week stretch that had two hurricane landfalls. Were conditions perfect for a major? No, but Hanna would have been a major given 6 to 12 more hours over the western GOM. It was a very well-developed hurricane intensifying right up to landfall with a symmetrical eyewall. Would that being a major hurricane at landfall really change the conversation about this quieter stretch? Not really in my opinion. We'd still have some struggling systems until conditions flip to more favorable in the coming weeks. Again, it's August 13th. I see that alot about "if it just had a few more hours over water". Maybe conditions were so bad over the water that it takes the shape of the coast for a little intensification just before landfall and if it had stayed over water longer it would still be a cat 1.

Just looking at that you would think we have an el nino. Moisture, low pressure and no windshear in the east pac, dry air, shear, and above normal pressure in the MDR.. Thats also a perfect set up for more huge SAL outbreaks. Sal is going to be going strong with that set up. High pressures much too far south. Going out further it says the first half of the CV season is dead. Perhaps when the flood pattern ends we may have a mini-burst from sept 20-oct 10 if the conditions ever become favorable.

GFS EURO still show nothing. Joe Bastardi says we may get laura right behind kyle. another very weak low. Just when are the super favorable conditions going to arrive? CV season doesnt last but so long.

It didnt age fast enough!!

The 10 named storms have averaged about 2.3 ace per storm. This is not 2005. Joesephine is going to fall apart over very warm water. 12z GFS says the lid isnt coming off.

GFS out to aug 29th shows nothing. Its going to be one heck of a sept, or not. And while i believe they upgraded td 11 its just going to collapse of respiratory failure.

I was wrong about CSU. They changed to 24/12/5 so 15/10/5 for the rest of the season. And while in a normal season it wouldnt necessarily be busy now they are predicting a hyper active season and everything shouldnt be struggling. All i am saying is 10 more hurricanes and 5 majors better be happening soon.

Im looking out to aug 21 and the gfs and euro show nothing. GFS does have some kind of weak low right in the middle of the atlantic but all that will do is kill off MDR development. Just shows above normal SST's dont mean much. I think CSU is already regretting 24/10/5 especially the cane numbers.

Lots of dry air and shear. TD11 is another struggler. Everything shouldnt be struggling if preseason forecasts of favorable conditions were right. 5/2/1 rest of the season though the way they name things these days 11/2/1 is possible. 20/4/1 for the season?

Looking less and less of a threat to anyone. Just more rain.

Sounds like you are ready

hopefully it stays offshore so you wont get flooded

It will have to get a heck ova lot better for those gusts to happen.

Lots of great info. I personally think its going to be a rather slow season regardless of all the weak storms so far. Some used 2005 as an analog but this season has been far weaker.

With my sports posts im expecting to make about the wonderful redskins draft this is it for me tonight. Back to my point about cigarettes. We all know most of these people wouldnt even be dying of corona unless they had another morbidity factor caused by cigarettes so when your neighborhood stalinist tells you every life is precious ask them why they dont seem to care about thier own policy of selling tobacco that is cuasing most of the corona deaths.

Its the best post on here. Let me ask another question if i may. May i? Thanks. If all these stalinist governors are so concerned about "the kids" and people in general and how one death is 1 too many can anyone explain why none of them as of yet have banned the sale of tobacco products? Cant they just dictate that anyone caught smoking or selling a tobacco product will be imprisoned? How many people are killed by tobacco? How many people do ABC store employees kill compared to a waitress? How many people does walmart kill by selling cigarettes as compared to a shoe salesperson?

You know isnt really serious for the vast majority of people when AT LEAST half the deaths are in nursing homes from elderly who got it in nursing homes and 99% of the deaths are either elderly or people with another reason they were already dying, such as cancer. There is zero evidence children are at any risk, regardless of the very few cases the media obsesses on and schools should never have been cancelled. I saw a study from italy where 65% got the virus in a hospital or nursing home, 25% intrafamial (people being cooped up together inside a house) and only 4.2% from work, yet the places least likely to spread the virus are the most likely to be shut down. Further, while for some reason restaurant and bar employees are seen as evil there seems to be zero evidence anyone can point to of anyone dying from eating in a restaurant or having a drink in a bar. However, i can easily point out the place you dont want to be is in a nursing home or hospital. And i dont mean people being taken there after getting the virus somewhere else. They get it there. Then there is the issue of thousands of false death codings. NYC admitted they added 3700 deaths in one day without a positive test for corona. The illinois office admitted they code a death as corona if there is a positive test regardless if the person died of cancer. One final point. You know this isnt really serious when we all know alcohol kills thousands a year, abd creates long term health consequences to millions. I think its safe to say alcohol will be responsible for more kids dying under the age of 15 from auto accidents than corona will. And with the false codings of deaths alcohol will kill more of everyone than corona. Yet, it seems many stalinist govs seem to glorify in all those deaths since they seem to have deemed the sales of alcohol is essential. I suppose a shoe store and its employees in a mall isnt even though they most likely contribute to no ones death. Another point. Is everyone sick of being deemed a non -essential piece of vomit by stalinist govs? I have news for them. every person is essential and every business is essential so stop deciding who can work and who cant. Who can open a business and who cant based on your hate-filled opinion of the "non-essential". Even though my posts are brilliant i can only post 5 times a day so i cant reply to every who agrees with me. And why in the hell cant the PGA be playing tournaments out in the virus killing UV light. And by the way there is also not a shred of evidence of viral transmission from outside activities, but plenty from being locked up. *this part was so good i just want to repeat it One final point. You know this isnt really serious when we all know alcohol kills thousands a year, abd creates long term health consequences to millions. I think its safe to say alcohol will be responsible for more kids dying under the age of 15 from auto accidents than corona will. And with the false codings of deaths alcohol will kill more of everyone than corona. Yet, it seems many stalinist govs seem to glorify in all those deaths since they seem to have deemed the sales of alcohol is essential. I suppose a shoe store and its employees in a mall isnt even though they most likely contribute to no ones death.

One thing that went wrong is within ourselves. We all are here because we like snow and cold.. Whether we admit it or not we have a built in bias toward cold and snow and that does indeed make us all to some extent make the objective data fit our preconceived bias.