ldub23

JB is really going to be bummed if this one doesnt rapidly intesnify. He predicted Henri would and it didnt. I think its moving way too fast to be more than a cat1 and the further east it goes the weaker it will be.

Probably because its moving so much faster and is quite a bit weaker. Moving that fast will likely mean it wont take advantage of what may be favorable conditions. Lets see if 0z slows it back down or speeds it up even more.

Yea, and it appears the faster it goes the weaker it will be. Hopefully if this so far short weakening trend continues it will come in as a cat1 rainmaker.

Actually its considerably weaker than 12z. Maybe its going so fast it will never really do much. So far this hasnt been a season of quality. My guess is the further east it goes the weaker it will be.

Looks like the real season is about to begin.

Maybe a late sept east coast runner.

Plenty of cane season left.

Yall should be happy. Like us in VA you normally just get decaying remnants of a storm after its been over land. At least this one is a direct hit.

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 1m Eye is forming on Henri. Warm water not only parameter as upper outflow will improve all the way to landfall. still no big pressure drops but if eye clears out would likely be a sign its happening

I was thinking they cancelled the golf tournament tomorrow for no reason in NJ

Luckily it looks like JB will be wrong about rapid intensification. Will still be some exciting weather.

Normally its the northeast.

May end up the strongest of the season.

96L will be fun to watch.

The type of season is my interpretation. A season where real tropical lows struggle in very hostile conditions while non tropical lows have a better chance. Im ignoring Grace because i think it will fall apart and Fred might make it to a sheared lopsided min cat1.. I dont think Grace should have been named and its doubtful there is a real center now. Phase 2 MJO, LATE aug and on the Euro there is a green thing in the central tropical atlantic. More suppressive phase will be here in Sept. And its rather suppressive now. I have to reply here. I mention phase 2 MJO so much because its supposed to be the EL PRIMO phase for tropical development. So far its produced nothing of note. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2021081500&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=192hr

I agree with JB. In this type of season the low from outside the tropics is the one to watch.

Yea, very el nino like. Phase 2 MJO isnt doing much. 2 very very weak lows.

So is that finally going to end the constant flood here? Phase2 MJO still not producing anything of note.

JB says grace will be crushed by Fred.

GFS back to showing it a hurricane. Wind and flooding for many on here.

Yea GFS dropped it. If this is MJO phase 2 its not doing much.

12 GFS much weaker. See if Euro shows anything.

The Euro isnt showing anything. Cant find the 06 gfs to see if it still shows anything. At least something is showing on a model.

But Supposedly we are in the most favorable phase of the MJO and still basically nothing. Dead Fred and a very struggling 95L.