ldub23

Here  is a  168hr  map. Supposedly we are  in the super duper favorable  num 2 MJO, Just about  at  peak, and  basically  nothing.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/cmc/2021081200/slp28.png

Euro

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2021081200&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=168hr

GFS keeps  it  very weak. 1009mb at  "landfall". I think conditions  might not be all that favorable  in the  GOM.

22 minutes ago, Muhammad2922 said:

Its showing a 1006 mb ts from 95l. 

Wow.

16 minutes ago, Muhammad2922 said:

as 95l heads west it will crash into the mjo, this will favor a big storm to form.

Lets see  if the  Euro starts  showing  something.

27 minutes ago, Muhammad2922 said:

Most recent

The epac hurricane originally had been forecasted to get to cat 4 or so intensity by the Ecmwf is now borderline cat 1 / 2 . With this the tutt shear zone will be weaker for both 95l and Fred. This also means the mjo is now moving into the Atlantic. Both systems are in good shape to organize.

East  pac  doing  much better.

Fred looks  like  its  coming apart  before  it hits the  mountains. I think JB was a  bit  premature talking about Katrina.

If all we get out of phase 2 MJO is dead fred and nothing else Sept will be really bad

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ecmwf-oper/2021081100/slp8.png

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

You keep doing this all the time

You did this with this current storm we are tracking and look.

I said AUG will have  1 or  2 weak storms.

Euro shows  nothing after Fred.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ecmwf-oper/2021081000/slp8.png

JB mentions Katrina!!

Yea, very weak. MJO phase 2 needs to get  its act  together.

Euro has a green dot south of PR. Deadsville

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ecmwf-oper/2021080900/slp2.png

8 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Curves out to sea after this image 

Doesnt appear the  Euro shows anything.

13 minutes ago, Diggiebot said:

Your a Debbie. Winter spring summer and fall we get it. 

When JB starts  lowering his  numbers its  means alot. Its  like when he starts cutting  his  winter  snowfall totals, you  know  its  done. Of course an Andrew  is always  possible like  1 big snow  in an otherwise very warm winter.

GFS continues to show a  hyper active el nino like east  pac. My guess is  1 or  2 very  weak quickly dissapating storms this  month. 2 or  3 in Sept. El Nino like seasons dont  usually have too much of  interest. Maybe oct  will be  busier  but  by then winter  is  coming and its  just  not that  interesting.

17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Why? 

click on the  link to his forecast and  find  out. Im amazed NOAA went  so high. When JB starts  lowering  his  numbers  its  only the  beginning. Cant  get a decent season in the ATL with a  hyper active east  pac.

JB has  lowered  his  numbers. Probably still way too high.

Pretty  avg season, probably  will be  below  avg and a dead MDR.

https://www.weatherbell.com/august-1-hurricane-season-update

1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

La Nina is going to strengthen.. -4 in subsurface next few days. 

Gotta love the -PDO/+IO

But the east  pac is rip roaring. And that  icon model shows storm after storm in the east  pac so i think that storm headed to florida  is a  phantom.

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

So you are going with with 192 hour simulation of the Euro to say we have to wait until September ?

Yea, i am. Its shows  nothing  on the ATL side.

First half of August is deadsville and with 2 hurricanes in the east pac might have to wait till sept for anything.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ecmwf-oper/2021080600/slp8.png

14 minutes ago, thunderbolt said:

I was kind of thinking the same thing my reasoning was once the Eastern Pacific shuts down then we would see the Atlantic Would wake up 

No sign the east  pac  is going to shut  down. Just the  opposite.

4 hours ago, ncforecaster89 said:

It’s still a little early, relatively speaking, and we’re right on schedule for a typically active hurricane season.  You’ll see...the ocean and atmosphere have steadily been building the right environment, and they’re going to come.   

I suppose  but still really  dry. I  have been reading sept will be suppressed and Aug  isnt exactly active.

A few  waves but  conditions arent  improving. Waves were stronger  in June.

On 8/1/2021 at 11:53 AM, Prospero said:

I am bit more concerned with October right now...

Could  be a  concern for  FLA but  by Oct  i tune  out. Fla could get  hit  by a  big  one  in OCT. aug/sept  might  dead  but  a  fairly active  oct.

9 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Twitter, hints tomorrow some people lower numbers, but while peak September season may be in a suppressive MJO phase, mid-late August looks favorable and hints of STR weakness near/just West of East Coast, while peak season may be slow, before peak season  (mid August) may be busy, and ECUSA could be involved.  If MJO is 40 days, who knows the October pattern for Florida or ECUSA.

Dead sept and  maybe  something  in AUG?