ldub23

06 GFS continues the  ominous trend. The set  up favors the ridge to continue to build. Low  over  alaska and what  might  be a  positive NAO.

GFS a  bit  more  ominous. Shows a disturbance that  could get trapped  under  building ridge  over the  Northeast. SSW of  Bermuda

2 hours ago, yoda said:

Nice major recurve

Closer than it  has been while the GFS basically shows nothing for  post  peak other than 3 weak struggling far east recurves.

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

Possible

There  is  my possible  major  recurving  well east  of  bermuda.

2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

A recurving major would be fantastic (as a surfer) but not where I would look. The MDR off Africa has clearly been a mess this season. If and when the next major forms it’s likely to be closer to land. The OHC is out there, we just need a storm to enter an area of low shear and it’s off to the races. I wouldn’t rule out a cat 5 

Possible

1 hour ago, Floydbuster said:

Does anyone have any realistic ideas as to why the models have been so awful on genesis? Showing an El Nino-type year when we're already damn near exhausting the name list by Sept 4th?

Just a thought, but all the storms  have  been very weak, even laura  for  a  long time. Maybe that  is a reason. And if they keep naming things  like  omar who knows how  many names, but  right  now the avg  is  3 ace  per storm. Ace  isnt  being  exhausted.

The real GFS basically  shows nothing considering peak is  going to be gone  soon. Shows yet another struggling storm. It does give more weight to my idea that  if there  is another  major this season it will recurve well east  of  bermuda. Atlantic still very  hostile but  i still think sept 20-oct  10 will have a chance of  2 well formed storms at the same time, then the season comes to an end. Even JB isnt tweeting about the atlantic. Wait, JB  just tweeted about  2 threats to the  US  next week.

Can someone  post the real GFS?

17 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

lol... yeah. I am not innocent of this. But unfortunately it's all we've got, good or bad. There is no doubt the operationals in general have struggled this season missing TCGs until they're already occurring in real time. Now if they miss on actual modeled TCGs and none or very few actually pan out IRL, well then...

Doing a  bit  more than i expected.

44 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

@ldub23 this season. TBH I'm starting to get there, too and so are some others based on the state of the season thread lately.

Nana is running  into the  problems they have all had. A struggle against shear and dry air. If  i was told  in june that we would  have  15 named storms  by  sept 02 i would  have laughed at anyone saying ace would  be  under  50. I am quite  confident ace will be  below avg for the season.

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Uh?

They aren't basing it off the models 

Might  be wise to do so. Compared to 06Z the GFS has went dead. I dont think the super favorable  conditions have arrived  by  sept  10. Very dead  for  peak. Maybe the hurricane showing  para  is  more active.

Euro does show 1 actual storm but  unless the euro and GFS agree i tend to discount  anything and  in any case this storm wont get close to the  US.

Im sure they are  basing that  on the euro and GFS though if they go dead this aft then it wont  be so active. What is the real gfs showing at  12Z? not the  para.

21 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Models are finally agreeing on a big uptick of MDR activity in about 8-10 days from now. 

Euro shows a  minor  low but the  06 GFS does show this

11 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Donut think we're gonna have a TD16. The Caribbean disturbance will be classified a tropical storm upon recon finding a closed vortex. Jamaica is experiencing TS force winds.

Gusts. Its peak. Where's the beef??

3 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Likewise visible also suggests 90L has a closed low level circulation. Just needs increased convection to get classified though recon could find winds sufficient for a TD sooner. This probably gets a name by tomorrow.

 

This one will be  named, 99 doubtful

Things  looking quite dead. I think the average ace  per storm is 3 and  if  90 gets  named that will drop a  bit. Tutt coming  back with a vengeance(MDR has been dead regardless) pretty  much means there  is  no peak. 5/1/0 rest  of  season, though who knows  how  many 1.0 ace storms will get  named. If the  MJO ever was favorable you wouldnt  know  it. If there  is another  major the  best  chance will be sept 20-oct10 east  of  bermuda. Once again, SST'S(which got  everyone to go overboard  on ace) are the  least  important factor. I also think the season will end rather early, around oct10, with a  below avg ace season

19 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

36 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

 
Dont get too excited. thats the  GFS  they have that still shows fantasy  storms. Maybe  in winter  it will be set to show  lots  of  blizzards.

Incorrect. That is the non-operational parallel GFS model that would become the GFS version operational in 202 if there are no hitches. It is still in experimental phase. The current operational GFS is version 15.

Still shows  lots  of storms.

Weak storm seems  likely.

Dont get too excited. thats the  GFS  they have that still shows fantasy  storms. Maybe  in winter  it will be set to show  lots  of  blizzards.

9 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs Para has been consitent with a storm  around this time frame. 

Euro shows  nothing, 06GFS NADA. Nothing for  peak.

2 hours ago, Windspeed said:

We've got an orange and two lemons now.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave located about 550 miles east of the Windward 
Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Some 
gradual development of this system is possible during the next 
several days while it moves westward at about 15 mph toward the 
Lesser Antilles.  Regardless of development, this system will likely 
produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across portions of 
the Windward and Leeward Islands on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

2. Another tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean 
just southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  This system is expected 
to move very slowly for the next several days, and some development 
is possible early next week over the eastern or central tropical 
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

3. A low pressure area is expected to form off of the southeastern 
coast of the United States early next week.  Additional subsequent 
development is possible as the system moves east-northeastward 
across the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Beven

 

Not  much for  peak season with only  sporadic  model support  for  any of them. We  have yet to have a  burst  of  storm formation where  3 or  4 form in rapid succession without monumental struggles. No evidence  of a  burst through peak. Atlantic continues to look like  a dried  up raisin. A typical 2020 storm may  form from that  thing  in the  gom as it scoots  out to sea but this  picture  is  less than impressive  for  peak. If this  is  MJO 2-3 yikes

Euro and GFS rather dead. Still think a  mini burst  might  occur sept20-oct10 unless we  have switched to a winter like  pattern by  then. its not  going to be hyper active with a dried  up MDR. JB is claiming we are  in the  active  phase  of the  MJO. How much nore  unfavorable  is  it  in the  MDR when its  not  favorable?

What  is a  para  gfs? The  one that shows storms?

Just now, ldub23 said:

Perhaps, but  i dont think pre-season forecasts  of a  hyper active season took this  in consideration. Mdr totally  engulfed  in bone dry air. I read the  gfs  does show a wave  finally  developing  in the Boc but the story  of the season, a  very  hostile  MDR continues. I read  JB thinks we are  in phase  2/3. Is it supposed to look like that?