ldub23

10 hours ago, cptcatz said:

Meh. Not the greatest signal for peak season...

Weak for peak season. Ventrice is beating Webb

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

He never learns 

This  idiot seems to agree with me. I said a  month ago Sept would be suppressed. We are all often wrong including those who said the  pattern in the  peak season was  "ominous" for the east  coast. Turned  out  just the  opposite.

On 9/2/2021 at 4:32 PM, madwx said:

This is actually a very favorable look for Atlantic Hurricanes.   Upward motion over Africa and the Indian ocean is highly correlated with the most active seasons.

 

 

GFS and EURO still say i am right. Horrid  conditions.

1 minute ago, nycwinter said:

and the models were not enthusiastic about ida early on ...

1 minute ago, nycwinter said:

and the models were not enthusiastic about ida early on ...

True, but the GFS up till now has been very enthusiastic about this  possible  low. Its tough for anything to get too strong near the  US when low  pressure  is  locked  over the  NW ATL.

1 hour ago, Prospero said:

Another monster in the Gulf this season is probably more likely than not, regardless of the models. NOAA has earned my respect the past few years, so seeing a lemon is more interesting than models. I do love the models too, but sometimes they have to catch up to NOAA. And as we know, countless Cat 3-5 storms the models predict 10 days out never materialize.

 

 

Good  news  is the 18z GFS is  much weaker and  shows a  cat1 into LA.

Atlantic still barren with horrid  conditions. GFS dropped the  cane  off SC  but stil has  a  monster in the GOM. Euro has rain showers.

16 hours ago, MattPetrulli said:

What is the point of logging on to this website just to troll 

GFS shows some weak action in the GOM in 10 days while the euro has this:

Here  is the gfs. GOM cane and a weak cat1 forming  off SC

Couldnt ask for  a  more different scenario. If everyone wants please  vote  on which one will happen.

23 hours ago, madwx said:

This is actually a very favorable look for Atlantic Hurricanes.   Upward motion over Africa and the Indian ocean is highly correlated with the most active seasons.

 

 

The Euro and GFS seem to disagree with you. Atlantic  barren at  peak season.

7 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

You saying a strong recurver probably means it's going to end up hitting land somewhere lol

England?

JB jumps  on the dead sept  train. I didnt think it would  happen when the consensus was the east  coast was at risk. Just the  opposite  pattern set  up. Either a recurve  or  just too hostile for  anything. My guess is the negative  NAO will reverse  just  in time for  winter  however.

I read that  and figured JB would  be all excited and be tweeting away. I checked and as  usual when he sees  nothing to tweet about  he has a  bunch of  past hurricane tweets.

3 hours ago, madwx said:

A few areas to watch as we go forward over the next two weeks:

1. Larry should continue moving westward and most likely recurve before any land masses but Bermuda and Atlantic Canada will have to keep an eye out

2. At least the next two waves coming off Africa after Larry, they will be moving into a favorable state with the CCKW passing overhead

3.  91L looks slightly better today in the SW Caribbean, wouldn't be surprised if we got a weak storm with this either before making landfall in Belize or in the BOC

4.  The GFS has started picking up on development of a low off the SE Coast spinning up off the trailing cold front from ex-Ida

5.  There is a non tropical low moving southward over the Azores, there is a very small chance of some tropical/sub tropical development here

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

You said the same thing about August 

Just delayed a  month. Larry  is about  it and  i dont really  care about recurvers, sort  of  like mid atlantic snow  lovers  dont care about  blizzards  in Manitoba.

14 hours ago, cptcatz said:

Saving this post to come back to it in a month from now

Cool. Except for  a recurver to nowhere sept  is quite dead  on the  models. Unless a strong high builds  into the  NW ATL and stays  locked the season is  pretty  much over.

58 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

 

 

Here you go! 

Just delayed. Sept  looks to be rather slow even with a strong recurver.

13 hours ago, Rjay said:

Of course you are.  You don't read. 

Still dont think "it" deserved to be  named.

Totally  mystified as to why it was  named.

They are seriously  calling that totally  devoid  of  convection thing a tropical storm. They really are trying to jack up numbers.

Reminds  me  of the  1992 season and Andrew. It was a  1 storm season. Right  now we  have  2 other tropical systems and they are both in horrid  conditions.

2 minutes ago, jacindc said:

 

 

Hard to boil water without  power.

As  usually  happens when a  storm is deepening  upon landfall the wind damage is  much greater.   A 125 mph  cane deepening at  landfall is far worse than a weakening 125 mph cane at  landfall.

110 max

105 landfall

970mb

Morgan city  sounds good.

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Beautiful combo. We fail on an I storm and it breaks down the NAO just in time for us to transition into autumn.

Who knows. If the Nao goes  positive and  Ida  gets trapped  off the  southeast  coast then it  could regenerate and  head  north. Also, that cane  on the Euro might  move a  bit  more west.

On 8/26/2021 at 1:12 PM, Eskimo Joe said:

Any of the mets in here think the Mid Atlantic has a chance for action, or are we done for the year?

This  is an interesting  look. The negative  NAO looks to be breaking  down and i think thats the remains  of Ida off the  southeast  coast.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ecmwf-oper/2021082800/slp8.png

JB  is really  going to be  bummed  if this  one  doesnt rapidly  intesnify. He predicted Henri would and  it  didnt. I think its  moving way too fast to be  more than a cat1 and the  further east  it  goes the weaker  it will be.