ldub23

40 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

I'm not saying this storm Euro develops is going to be another Irma, but I'm getting serious vibes from ldub's posts regarding 2017's 93L only two days before it was named Irma:

Mocking  me  hasnt worked  out that well so far this season, lol. Now you  have  cursed the  next wave as well. I  have doubts it will amount to anything. Greg  Postel was talking about  it  and then ended with saying there  is  no guarantee conditions will be any more favorable  in a week than they are  now. Its  possible  it  could  be a  nothing storm that  croaks soon after developing.

WHERE'S THE  BEEF?

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

The 0Z slams SE FL with a cat 2 H early on 9/2 from the same E Atlantic wave:

 

As expected  in a dead season it appears to have  been dropped  by the GFS and Euro due to the  continued hideous  conditions. Not  a surprise. Euro has another  low  later  but will be dropped  within a day. GFS has some slop here and there but  basically  nothing. Dead  City.

As far as the  BOC, just whats expected  in a dead season.

Nothing can get across the Sahara. Pukeworthy season. I cant remember a season where we didnt even have waves to track

*** Please tropical Gods dont  mess  up the  0/0/0 Aug with  a BOC nothing.

56 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

What is the GFS trying to do out in the MDR???

It  brings  back the cane  it dropped. Almost a good enough pattern.

30 hours  later  it  hasnt  moved a whole  lot and looks to get trapped  under the  high

Another  5 yard false start  penalty  or finally the real deal? Check the  lower  right.

Its  put  up or  shut  up time

This was issued Aug 09 and its been dead since then. I have averaged  out the  numbers. 8.5 hurricanes, 4 majors, 138 ace for the remainder  of the season. All i can say is if we get to these  numbers  it will be a wild ride  indeed. Im doubtful, but read for yourselves.

https://www.cfact.org/2022/08/18/2022-hurricane-update/

"I think we will see a fast and furious period from mid and late August into early September, followed by a lull and then another active period. I don’t have any below normal risk impact areas, though there certainly will be when the season is looked at retrospectively."

Mid to late Aug is  here and no canes, no majors.

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 The 12Z Euro is sticking with the idea that this lead AEW won't develop. So, the GFS suite continues to be largely on an island for that wave.

 The 12Z Euro has no TC anywhere in the basin on its entire 10 day run.

As  i suspected it  has  no Atlantic  super cane nor  GOM super cane. It does  have a ton of  bone dry air everywhere with rather  high pressures  in the tropics. All i need to do is  look at this picture to know the  pattern shows  zippo signs  of  change. We  have a winter time storm hitting  Maine, low  pressure  locked  over the  NW ATL, chaos  in the west ATL(Trofs and shear) no clouds  in the deep tropics, and oodles doodles  of  bone dry  air. When this satellite  map has a well formed  cane west  of  65 and south of  25 with a west  component  in its direction then wake  me  up. This  is  getting  ridiculous. Unless  or  until the euro can confirm what the  GFS is fantisizing about then its  not  happening.

The time  for hints, signs, and  model storms  is  over. All Clear  on the Western Front.

Can someone  please  let  me  know where  that damn hurricane season switch is? I will gladly turn it  to the  "ON" position. I would  love to be wrong and have something to track other than the  latest dry air surge  or east  coast trof.

WHERE'S THE BEEF??

Euro says  we are getting  close  to a  0/0/0 Aug.

This tweet  is from yesterday. Its  clear  now this wave will croak like  97L did.

14 minutes ago, Normandy said:

See you in November iduB!  The bell has been rung.  GFS nails the Gulf Coast with the seasons first major.

We will see. The Atlantic super cane  is a  "ghost" of  its  former self at  12Z and  if  i remember  correctly  back in June the GFS insisted a  major  cane was  going to hit the gulf  coast. It  didnt form, much less  hit anything..

Mid day Euro will be  out shortly. If it shows nothing at  240 then its doubtful anything  of  note will form.

4 hours ago, tiger_deF said:

0z GFS going nuts

Lets see what  it  looks  like at  06Z. Just need the wheel to be a  bit stronger.

12Z the  major  hurricane turned into a  1010mb  nothing. 2 other weak lows. For  peak season this  is rather  pathetic. There  is also a potent TUTT which is  no doubt why the  monster cane turned into a tame teletubby.

This  is Sept 01 with absolutely  nothing  of  note. At  least  at  06Z you could see the edge  of the  phantom cane in the lower right.

0Z not all that thrilling for phase 2 and season peak. Hints and signs though!!

3 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

How's that 0/0/0 August looking, @ldub23?

Several points. If they dont  get  close to land them im still right because the  preseason forecasts had higher than normal chances  for a season of  note. If all we get  is  climo or  less  im right  because this was supposed to be at  least more active than normal if  not  hyperactive. And finally, 06Z GFS put the  lid  back on with tons  of dry air and higher than normal pressures  in the  MDR. And, i dont  give a rats rear end  about some weak low that forms at  33N 54W and  zippity doo-dahs NE. Here  is the 06 GFS with the  lid  firmly  back on.

Are a few storms  going to form between now and Oct 01(the season will have an early  end)? Sure, but  i am quite  confident the preseason forecasts are going to fall flat  on their  faces. With this  pattern the waves will come  off way too far  north to even matter and any wave that manages to get  into the Sahara has a doubtful future at  best. We  have  one  hell of a TUTT out there as well.  Looking at that  pattern any miracle storm that does form in the  MDR  is  bebopping  out to sea so its  meaningless. Now, keeping alive the hopes for  a  1 storm season of  note we need to look at the high pressure over the  Northeast. IF that  can hold thru mid Sept  then we  need to hope  something can get going in the far western basin under the ridge.

*******Im not  being a jerk i simply can not reply to people  here because  i can only  post  5 times a day. I can talk via  PM.

Its  been so dead  in the tropics  i figured  i would  post this. Its a quote for  Larry Cosgroves great  newsletter.

We are  in phase 2 at the  peak of the season(aug/sept) and  not a single  cane  is forecast  by any model. This  is why i think Sept will be  below  normal. Phase 2 will be gone  by  mid sept, if  not  sooner.

At  least  phase 2 is  producing another cane  in the east  pac.

43 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

That is purely a non-tropical nor easter. It has a front attached and a very chilly backside. That’s probably the worst sign for tropical activity at the moment possible. Restregthens the east coast trough and pulls in a fall-like airmass. Will be interesting to watch and probably new England’s best chance at much-needed rainfall but that is NOT tropical 

I agree. The season ending winter  pattern has arrived early. I am also surprised that  once again we are  in the super duper favorable  phase  2. I must  have  missed how  phase2=The Sahara. 100% dead MDR and even if that weak low forms  off VA and  is partly tropical its the exact thing you would expect to see  in a dead season. Mid Nov and this would be a  big early season Snowstorm for the NE.  Another  nail in the  coffin of the  2022 Sahara caneless season. It  looks  like the  phase 2 sahara version of the MJO will be gone  by  Sept  10. After that they may not  have graphs that  will be able to show  the massive  lack of  moisture  in the MDR.

CSU, if you are  listening do an emergency  update and forecast  4/1/0 for the rest  of the season.

Lows  have  been regualrly  forming  in the  massive  offshore trof for  sometime. We  have  one today, though not as strong as the  low next week. The sad thing  is  for  snow and  cold  lovers that  eventually this wintertime  pattern will reverse to a  pattern that would  be favorable  for  hurricanes but  by that time all it would  lead to is a  mild winter.

3 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

If I was post limited I would have saved this post.  I see you, I know the season looks like it will not start before very end of August, and may not be superactive.  GaWx or somebody posted about a third year Nina.  Late start and over 100 ACE still possible, especially with Gulf and Caribbean in October.

 

Bummed, can't log in work Google account... 

 

ETA- if I were a degreed meteorologist and had a social media following, I'd have done 10/20 mainly because of ensembles.  I did post that, with a shortened Storm2K 'take this with a grain or 18 of salt' on Twitter just after 7.  10% lemon with an invest tag, that is rare...

The way this season is  going  5 posts a day will be  just  fine, lol. As we can see  here the reason the GFS contines to keep the  Sahara bone dry  is  because of  super duper  high pressure  in the tropics. Look at the  last frame. INCREDIBLE. No wave will make  it thru that. We will see  just  how  much the gulf and carib  can do with this  pattern. I suspect  not  much. Also, move your eyes  north  from the tropics and  notice there  is  no wheel. High pressure  just  keeps  moving west to east and  never  locks  in. That  pattern is NOT conducive to late season activity. We are already  getting  cooler than normal air  in the east  now. I didnt think that would start till mid Sept. This  is the  early  winter  pattern i have  been talking  about.

I hope texas gets  some  beneficial rain and even without  a weak low  the rain is  coming.

Here  is the  GFS forecast  for  TX rain

In summary this  pattern will have to reverse or  sept  will be as dead as  Aug. And  if the  pattern doesnt reverse  i will have to disagree about  Oct.

Addendum: Also notice the  coast  of Africa. Because  of the  super duper wooper  high pressure the waves are squeezed way too far  north so there  may not  even be any waves to worry  about.

15 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Double secret probation home brew TD/TS alert is now in affect.

 

 

 

A quick td trying to develop in a  year that was  supposed to be hyperactive. *sighs*

22 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I was going to say not to mention the obvious that the last thing the sane amongst us who live not too far from the coast want to happen is a hurricane plowing in and likely causing at a minimum temporary major disruptions to our families' and friends' lives due to the huge inconvenience from having to evacuate (especially for disabled bedbound persons and their caregivers like in my situation..I don't even know how I'd be able to do it), alone, and of course the potential for long lasting power outages and worse yet, damage and even casualties for those who try to ride it out. So, ldub's version of "bad news" is the exact opposite for some of us coastal folks. I just feel it is pointless to repeatedly preach the obvious at a wx forum. But I'm human and will speak my mind on this at times. Your comment gave me a perfect time to do so. This is a reminder that hurricanes are huge life disruptors wherever they hit and are not just a game to see where they will go.

 Regardless, when I post in the tropical threads, I try to do it in as objective a manner as possible. My goal is to be informative and accurate while not allowing anyone to tell what my desires actually are.

Now  can you explain how wanting something translates  into making  it  happen? And would you  be  nice enough to go into the winter threads and scold them for wanting weather that  kills far  more than hurricanes. Right  now  in the  mid-Atlantic forum they are  in panic and  meltdown because the evidence seems to indicate a  mild winter. Let them know they should  be  rejoicing and arent being  nice wanting weather that  kills. Oh, and  please  let storm chasers(who desperately  want strong tornados and  hurricanes to form though no doubt they can claim purity  by using their thoughts to keep what they want from hitting  populated areas) know  your  feelings about what they desire. If someone, anyone, can show  how I, snow and  cold  lovers, storm chasers, and  others can control the weather with our thoughts please do so. No one who posts  on this  forum came  here to post  because they like warm sunny 72 degrees days year round. And  one  last thing. No doubt we will get someone saying, yea  i want to watch cat  5 hurricanes  but  i want them to stay out  to sea. Its awesome you  can control them that way. I sure  cant.

*I dont want to sound  harsh. I am quite certain you  mean well and want the  best for  everyone.

1 hour ago, Normandy said:

Eating my popcorn watching this unfold.  Idub looking strong today!

When JB threw  in the towel earlier this  morning i knew things were looking  OK. There will still be a few storms, i think anyway. As  i said earlier a  nothing  can spin up just off the African coast. IF,and  i do mean IF, a wheel forms and  locks  in then its  possible to get  something in the  bahamas or  NE GOM.

Something else  i noticed. For quite some time  Dr Knabb has been saying the  favorable  conditions were going to leave the  EAST PAC and  move  over the Atlantic. He wasnt  using  climo. It was going to happen. Then 3 days ago he started to talk about  how  CLIMO said the atlantic would get  more active. We can still have a  1 storm season where 1 storm manages to make  it thru.

Sad that  in the  middle  of what supposed to be a  very active season we get to read  about  dust  in FLA.

JB is starting to go wobbly. Says we "should" see  activity  pick up but  for the  first time this season brings  up a  model saying  nothing  will happen. JB  is  beginning the  process  of  backtracking. 0/0/0 Aug? Followed  by a  0/0/0 Sept??. All JB is doing  now  is reciting  climo. Its AUG 11. Things damn well better  pick up.

Oh, if this  is  phase 2 in the Atlantic what does an unfavorable  phase  look like?

Oh, again what does an unfavorable  phase  of the MJO look like? If we are  in phase 2 now  maybe  we  need  phase  17.38

Does  phase 2 look like this? I am so rooting  for  a  0/0/0 Aug.

Oh, and  look at the African coast. Waves will come  off too far  north to matter anyway.

My guess  is the  only  place we MAY see development  in the Sahara is just  off the African coast. If a strong wave can time its splash down into the atlantic with a  brief  pocket  of  moisture it  might  spin up into a weak nothing  before  it  bebops  north or croaks  of thirst.

30 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

It might actually rain at my house in Houston after 2+months of 2011 heat/drought.  I'm back to work, can't look at every model, but haven't seen any model support.  But front in the Gulf and light shear.  Probably not the last August front, which bring only a DP drop and no cool air/high winds to rob OHC

Glad you are getting rain and  cooler temps. Im starting to wonder  if  Aug  is  1/0/0 or  even 0/0/0 could  Sept  be  even deader? Could Sept  be  -1/-1/-1?. New CFS just  in and  it  makes the  Sahara look like a tropical paradise compared to the dried  up prune ATL. CSU needs to do an emergency update  to 4/1/0 for  the rest  of  the season. October to the rescue!! I  have been reading where the experts are saying the  super duper favorable  conditions were going to vamoose  in sept. Maybe the ATL will just  dry  up and we can walk to Africa.

To be fair  here is what  Klotzbach just said. The Atlantic cant do what  he  is  implying  if the  CFS is right. I hope and  pray Phil is right  but im doubtful. Warm SST's are great  but they cant  overcome what the CFS is showing.

Ill go with the 2009 52.6 ace.

1 hour ago, Seminole said:

  I think it is safe to agree that peak SAL is not going to happen until Mid August or even later given current conditions. Any TC formation would likely be in the GOM or Western Caribbean in the near term.   

 

 

GFS says 0/0/0 is  very  possible except  for  1 weak nothing  in the  middle  of  nowhwere. I guess the  GOOD news is that would  be another  name. The  bad news? It appears to get stuck in the central atlantic. That  means  killing the  already anemic wave train and flooding the Atlantic with massive  dry air. Oh, the east  pac el nino cane fest  just  keeps  on going. Normally the reason the east  pac slows down in a typical season is a wave will finally develop in the tropical atlantic which in turn ends the wave train entering the east  pac. Absolutely  no sign of that on the  12Z. I seriously  doubt that  1972, 73, 74, 82, 83, 97 looked as  barren as this.

2 more East Pac canes lined up and ready to rumble with more  on the  way in an impressive East Pac El Nino.

Yes, those years were  barren and this season mimics them. 2 more  points.

A- The experts are  now already  telling  us when the  super favorable  conditions will leave the Atlantic before they even begin(maybe they have begun and this  is the best they can do). Thats  not a good  sign for even a  normal season.

B-This nowhere  man weakie comes from 97L. What does that tell us? In dead seasons storms  have to escape the tropics to develop.

What the  hell, 1 more  fun idea

C-Maybe with the wheel to help, 97L will get trapped and  do a  Ginger and  come all the way back to the US coast  and listen to what  JB says  about  how this amazing Super Season will feature in close rapid  feedback development and  turn into a cat  4 just  before hitting Cape Lookout. Yea, thats the ticket!! 100% chance  of that  happening.

D-Can we all chip in and pay for California water dumping  Planes to load  up with water and dump them in the  bone dry Atlantic?

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Basin still sucks right now. 

Looks  like the wheel is  going to be wasted. At  least it will be  cooler  here. Give  JB credit for the wheel but  will it  only  last a week? I hope  it  lasts  for  3 months  like the Trof did. 0/0/0 still on the table  for  August. Something weak might  pop up but zip for  August  would  be pretty  cool.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ecmwf-oper/2022081000/slp8.png

1 hour ago, etudiant said:

Same here, although in fairness I found the discussions much more worthwhile than the specific forecasts.

If they offered a discounted 'discussions only' rate, I'd be tempted to resubscribe.

That said, I've nothing but respect for JB, he called Sandy correctly in the face of much disparagement. I know forecasts are really hard, we can't even get the five day call reasonably correct, so I admire anyone who sometimes is blessed with understanding.

Well said. JB is  the role  model for  many.

97L bites the dust. Ive  issued a Slow and Tame  warning. There are some  changes  in the  pattern. Texas will get wetter, the east  is  cooling and the wheel might  be  coming. Maybe  by sept  10 the tropics will be active.

4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

This is actually not good because it'll favor development close to home whereas most central & eastern Atlantic storms would recurve. 

The wheel seems to be there but there is  nothing that can take advantage  of  it. 97L just  has  no chance and while  18Z  had a  hurricane cruising west after 97, 0Z is  much weaker and  north. East pac  continues to roar  on with cane after  cane. Im sure by sept 05 conditions will improve.