ldub23

41 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said:

End of Euro continues to advertise major outbreaks of dry air 

Im cancelling the Fast and Furious watch and replacing  it with a Dry as a bone warning. I feel sorry  for the  poor waves in Africa. Before they head  off the  coast  into the Sahara i hope they have their  wills  up to date. At  least  i can see signs  of the wheel showing  up. East  pac  has 3 areas  of  interest and 1 hurricane while the ATL has this.

2 hours ago, Cary_Snow95 said:

As expected GFS is trending towards other guidance with a weaker system 

 

Nothingburger in a sea  of dry air with the locked and  loaded  central atlantic  low making this 1983. If this  is the  best this  crummy clump of  clouds  can do i dont  count this as the  beginning  of the season. Nothing  behind the wave either due to the central atlantic  low. Amazing that i wanted a  pattern change and got  one, and  it was even worse than before, lol. This is the  peak of the season? Nothing?

Oh, and this  is  for    the ghouls who pray for  snow and  cold  in the winter.

11 hours ago, cptcatz said:

Why are any of us on this website if we don't enjoy watching the extremes of weather?  The way I see it, it makes no difference what you root for since it has zero impact on what will happen.

Well said, and tornado chasers beg and pray for F5's to get videos to sell. Winter weather kills more than hurricanes. Sunny weather kills people.. Now here is the perfect pattern and the GFS has a cat 2 almost on top of me. But, somehow it doesnt get turned by the low at 240 hours and the GFS has been showing canes here and there for several weeks. At 0Z it had a storm hitting the GOM thata gone at 06Z.

Meanwhile, this  latest  super wave  has trended weaker and weaker  on all models. At the  very  best  its a short  lived  nothing. This wasnt advertised as a season without  MDR canes. As far as that group of showers  off the se  coast if this  were  just a  normal season it  might  have a  chance to sit there and develop. It isnt a  normal season, its a dead season with a huge  west ATL trof. That  means  nothing will be able to be trapped  off the  se  coast and develop. For that to happen you  need a  locked  in High over the  NW ATL. With a trof all you  can possibly  get  is a  very  weak strung  out  low  ripping  NE with no chance to be anything  more than a weak depression that  CANT threaten the  US. Here  is  a  perfect example  of what this  hideous  pattern can produce.

What  do we see? The  never ending trof  off the  coast  is what  we see  with another trof ripping east to reinforce  it. On the  offshore trof  we  have 2 very  weak lows trying to form, but thats all they can ever  be  because there  is  no blocking  high to keep them in place to develop. They just  get stretched  out NE and will never amount to anything. And once  once  once once again the whole  pattern, no moisture  in the  MDR, mega west atl trof, all models agreeing there will be  no MDR season, and the  latest  ballyhooed wave never amounting to anything makes the CFS quite  believable. I will leave you all on a  positive  note  however. See that one blue  line  in the  upper right  corner? Thats winter  baby!! That will eventually  put an early  end to this  miserable  bust  of a season.

*It would certainly  be  nice  if some  of the pro mets  on here can explain how the season is still going to be active.

And here  is the  map 24 hours  later.

We see the same  2 areas that were trying to develop. They CANT and WONT because  yet again we  have a  monster trof  blasting  off the east  coast. Even in the totally dead season of  1986 we  had  hurricane Charley form off  NC and  hit as a cat1 in NC and SE VA because  it  had time to organize.

I  have alot  of respect for  Larry Cosgrove. He  has been the  only  met  who early  on recognized the reality  of the season.

https://groups.google.com/g/weatheramerica/c/gT3GLZPcgow

"The major islands, Caribbean Sea nations, and the Eastern Seaboard all have prominent windows for a named storm or hurricane strike in a window between August 23 and October 15. But I will repeat that the number of storms will likely be reduced from the two years past, since the Maximum Development Region convection will be reduced, and chances for a Gulf Coast impact are crushed because the heat ridge complex will either be over Texas or the "Four Corners". Steering and subsidence can greatly reduce your chances at seeing a prominent tropical cyclone. Despite whatever you read on an internet weather forum or because waters near your community are incredibly warm."

I hope  he  is right about the eastern seaboard though that  wont  happen unless  or  until  a locked  in ridge replaces the trof. He  is certainly right about a Gulf coast  impact  being highly  unlikely.

Finally  its  LC vs JB

I found this  on another  site. The CFS says everyone  yelling about the  favorable  condidtions  coming are  nuts. It  has  1 weak nothing  between aug 20-sept  26.

0/0/0 Sept  possible?

Pretty amazing really. A few days after CSU says  18/8/4. NOAA about the same, and  JB issues a fast and  furious watch and just  this  morning implies hyperactive  is  coming the CFS takes a dump on them saying  1 nothing  between Aug20 and Sept  26

Euro a bit less enthusiastic on the wave. However JB says it "MAY" get hyperactive

"In close" will be hard to get unless the mega trof is replaced with the Wheel.

Meanwhile the East Pac  is  hyperactive with 3 lined  up and  more  on the way. For a hyperactive atl that will also have to change.

WOW!!!!!!!!!! GFS showing the  first wintertime  low ripping across the eastern US. Earlier than even i thought

Meanwhile, even though the  "experts" insist the  tropics are primed to come  alive the  Euro is  pathetic thru Aug22. Lets face  it, anyone  now  saying the tropics are  going to come  alive are  just  repeating  climo, nothing  more. They sure as hell better  come alive  if there  is  going to be a season.

Finally at  hour  384 we  have  1 trof  protective trof  off the  coast while  yet another  one  is slamming east to replace  it. 54 this aint. The whole US coast  is  snug as a  bug  in a rug  with this  pattern.

4 hours ago, Cary_Snow95 said:

Wave breaking continues to wreak havoc on the MDR. Mid Latitude dry air is being consistently driven into the MDR. Latest Euro further strengthens the sub tropical low sending a surge of dry air south 

Atlantic ridge totally  gone. Just when the experts are all in unison on the favorable  conditions arriving we get  stuck with a  massive central atlantic  low and no ridging. What  a  piece  of crap dead season. Have the  "experts  been more wrong?

DT-"August  will be sideways" NOPE

JB-Fast and  furious watch-NOPE

Another  1954-NOPE

The Wheel-NOPE

CSU-18/8/4 Still way too high

At least  winter time  conditions will arrive early  putting an end to the Non-season.

Next up: The super duper awesome fantastic favorable  condidtions will arrive  by  Sept 15. Without ridging  it  doesnt  matter  how  many canes form. Its all zippity doo dah bebop east  of  Bermuda.

And while the Atlantic ridge said "So long, Suckers" the  overall pattern  remains. Mega west ATL trof. This  is why im confident of a  very  early  ending  season.

The  good  news and the  bad  news.

The  good  news  is  both the GFS and  Euro develop a  very  weak low that  might  be  a short lived TD/TS. But then they run into very  unfavorable  conditions  in the west atl and  poof. This  overall pattern remains horrific  for  anything worth  following. Gigantic  low  in the  central ATL plunging  more dry air  into the tropics. Mega trof  remains  entrenched along and  off the east  coast. Nothing  fast and  furious about this  pattern. If that  low locks  in then there  is  no hurricane season. Looks  like the  MJO and  the  moisture  is  still locked and  loaded  in the east  pac. Not  sure  i have seen a worse  looking  map in mid AUG for tropical development. For whats  its worth  that super  central atlantic  low should  cause additional warming  in the tropical sst's.

Did  someone say the super duper awesome fantastic  conditions  were  coming? East  Pac says this  is a super el nino.

This  is horrific  for MDR development. A cat 5 cut  off  low wandering around the  middle  of the Atlantic. Tropics  killer

TICK, TICK, TICK. CSU should  have went  6/3/1 for the rest  of the season and we  might  not  make that  with a  very  real probability The Fast and Furious watch will be  cancelled, no wheel, no euro super ridge, and the east  pac popping  canes  like bees to honey.

CSU and Noaa are  nice  but  the  JB-o-meter has  just  issued a  "Fast and  Furious watch" I hope any of these  3 are right. 12Z GFS says  not so fast. I think CSU is flailing  just a  bit. All of a sudden a  cool subtropics is  bad? Ive read the  super warm subtropics  of  years  past  were  bad  for  the  MDR. Storms best start forming  pretty  fast  to get to 15 more.

16 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Meanwhile, the 6z GFS had 4 hurricanes develop in the EPAC over the next 10 days

Thats  no way to run a  LA NINA, LOL

3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

"Thou shall not bullshit the masses" ????

Euro is pathetic for  the  time  period  of  04-19 Aug. Dr  Knabb keeps saying the  MJO is stuck over the east  pac and  all he  can do is say it  has to move over the atlantic eventually. Why? Maybe  it will just skip over the atlantic.

15 hours ago, cptcatz said:

Euro ensembles are picking up on it:

GFS/CMC/Euro are all starting to pick up on the MDR wave as well.  Could be tracking two systems next week.  So much for your 0-0-0 August prediction. 

18Z GFS appears  less enthusiastic

Euro even less enthusiastic. Mega super duper low over the northeast and as can be seen here that causes higher than normal pressure over the Sahara. Times up for hints and signs. WHERE'S THE BEEF!

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ecmwf-oper/2022080400/slp8.png

The  JB-o-meter  is  stuck on Bible  verses this AM. No mention of the  Atlantic Sahara.

1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Eh not happening.  As usual he points out only one area that supports his narrative.  

This  is  1954 like if it  happens. JB-o-meter hasnt  mentioned  it  yet and will need to see  it  on the Euro as well.

JB brings  up 1954. I would take that in a  heartbeat right  now.

1 hour ago, Normandy said:

@ ldub23

Can we make a deal?  If the season ends above average can you never post in this topic again?  I like your enthusiasm but I think we need some stakes on this take.

Only  if the deal is that everyone who is wrong on anything  can never  post  in the  forum they were wrong  in.  Plus of  course there are degrees of  "wrong". What  if the season ends  up 14/7/3? Should everyone who forecasted  higher than that vamoose? Also, there  is a reason i post this  map so often. Its  because  unless a hurricane  can get  in this  picture  i dont  consider  it "of  note". You might say but  a  cat 4 just ran right  over PR before turning  out to sea east  of  Bermuda. In winter  no east  coast winter snow  lover cares if a blizzard blasts Butte  Montana or  if the CA Sierra gets  200% of  normal snow  dec-feb while dc has  3.5 inches. If that  happened the  moaning and groaning  in the Mid-Atlantic  forum would  be  monumental and  no matter  if CA had  400% of  normal snow while  DC  had  3.5 inches it would  be  considered a total non-winter.

1985 was  11/7/3 i think but  it  is  one  of  my benchmark seasons. It was a  hyperactive season for  a reason. Something  is wrong this season. Supposedly we are  in a  la  nina and SST's are  just  fine yet  it  just  cant get  going. I personally consider  the season at  1/0/0 so far as  A and C should  not  have  been named, but thats  just  me. Notice the dark red  over the waters off se  canada and the  Northeast? Thats supposed to cause a  blocking high. So far  nothing.

This  is  from DT's  public facebook page. 2 things to take  note  of. No mention of the tropics  or a sideways august. Also look at week 3. Mean trough remains across  New England. This  pattern has  persisted the entire  summer. We will never  have   a Newfoundland wheel or  Euro super  ridge with the  mean trof  over  New England. I  know  people are  talking  about  hints and signs. I  listened to Suddath talk about how the  warm temps  in the  NW ATL means a ridge will be there. It  sure wont  be there  in 3 weeks.  Some storms will form but  unless the  pattern changes  its a  non season.

The JB-o-meter  just went  off.

12Z GFS  says, yea the  pattern is still horrid. Totally  barren in the Sahara, hyperactive  in east  pac.

No wheel, no euro super ridge, no moisture. Aug starts as  July  ended.

Would everyone  take  5/2/1 for the rest  of the season and  be  happy?

Im surprised this  has  gone  unmentioned. Its a repeat  of  2 days ago but with a cat1 cane  hitting  texas instead  of a  cat 4. How  it  develops  is  a  bit  suspicious. Since  its starts  in 9 days  we can see  if the euro shows anything today

The  pattern shown on the euro at  240 with a front up and down the east  coast and huge  low  pressure  over the  northeast makes  me think this  likely  isnt  going to happen. Maybe it  will change today.

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 I wouldn't at all consider 1972 since it was a strong El Niño.

But this season is acting like an el nino. In fact, we cant even get a  cloud to make  it  across the Atlantic.

This  picture  pretty  much sums things  up. There  is  no wheel, there  is  no euro super ridge, there  is  no moisture  in the Sahara tropics, and waves are developing regularly  in the east  pac even though they are anemic dried  up nothings  until they get there. Right  now there  is yet ANOTHER low blasting  off the  mid-atlantic  coast. This  is why i am super  uber  confident of an early  ending season. While  its  possible a switch will flip and  the Wheel will appear i think its  more  likely as sept  15 nears the  trofs will simply  be stronger and  more  potent.

My 5 post  limit  means  i need to reply  here. I also dont think it remain this quiet. 8/4/2 for the rest  of the season but  i might  bust too high.

East  Pac says this  is  el nino baby!!!

"This is consistent with -ENSO climo, so it wouldn't be a surprise that things begin to change as we get closer to the peak. 

Things are rough according to an EPS mean at the start of August, but as we get closer to the peak, the signal is for a less hostile basin."

You would  hope they are going to change because they cant get any worse. Its  very  basic. There  is a  massive east coast trof displacing  high pressure too far south turning the Atlantic  into more  of the sahara than the sahara is. Until that  changes i agree we  can ignore  2013, but  look carefully at  1983, 1972.

And lets take  out  November  because that  can be dead even in active seasons. What  is the  longest time  between invests? Should  we  have a  contest  on when the  next  invest will be designated?

11 hours ago, cptcatz said:

Here we go! Major into Mexico and another little something into Florida...

0Z was a bit less active. East pac still cranking plus the JB-o-meter didnt go off.

In  a dead season like  2022 this  is  much more  likely. A weak storm forming from a  mid-latitude  trof. With the east  pac  in overdrive we  have  el nino shear in the west  carib and  gom so until the east  pac  acts  like a la  nina a 938mb cane  isnt  likely  in the  GOM

This  map also shows the  overall pattern hasnt  changed  one  iota. No wheel, no euro super  ridge just a  continuation of the mega east  coast trof with dry  air  flooding the tropics.

5 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

It’s truly tough to envision the Atlantic as a whole being drier than it is this morning.

Like  i was saying, the real Sahara has  more  moisture. Could CSU  go 0/0/0 for the rest  of the  "season"? Obviously something  will develop, most  likely  a  nothing  in the far east ATL that  quickly either croaks  of thirst  or  bebops north. Time to start thinking about  1983. There wont  be an Alicia  though, but  maybe a weak storm will form in the western GOM. In a season that was as weak as the  2022 season look to the extreme east  or west  for something to form.

Hard to imagine the  real Sahara having  less  of a  probablity  of a depression to form. We  need a  contest, "Will there be an invest  in Aug"?

+

16 hours ago, cptcatz said:

What would (or did) ldub say at this point during the 1999 season?

I was  most likely  saying thank god  Clinton is almost  gone. As far as the season itself i seem to remember  i was a  bit  optimistic. I  cant remember the  overall pattern that season but i know right  now and  at  least  thru aug 14 the Atlantic Sahara and the real Sahara will be equally  dry. Here  is a satellite  animation of  1999 and  it sure appears there was  much more  moisture  in the tropics.

*Floyd flooded  my house and car

Here  is the Atlantic Sahara today. It  may well be  drier than the real sahara.

Good  article  in SAL. Personally  i think this season was dead due to the High being  displaced too far  south. Euro pretty  dead thru Aug. Shows some activity  in Sept  but that  might  just  be the  model thinking  something  should  be  happening. 8/3/1 CSU on aug 04.

https://michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/blame-it-on-the-dust?utm_source=email