ldub23

5 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Because a likely major hurricane hits New Orleans in 4 days, or something seems wrong with the modeling.

Thanks.

Probably  because  its moving so much faster and is quite a  bit weaker. Moving that fast will likely  mean it wont  take advantage  of what  may be favorable  conditions. Lets see if  0z slows  it  back down or speeds it  up even more.

10 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Sunday is sooner than the models had been showing before...

Yea, and it appears the  faster  it  goes the  weaker  it will be. Hopefully if this so far short weakening trend  continues  it will come  in as a  cat1 rainmaker.

8 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

18z bombs into NOLA

Actually  its  considerably weaker than 12z. Maybe  its  going so fast  it will never really  do much. So far this  hasnt  been a season of  quality. My guess is the further east  it  goes the weaker  it will be.

Looks  like the real season is about to begin.

4 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

indeed but how often do we see multiple storms in the same season here?  guess you could count Elsa too-so we've had 2 this year

Maybe a  late sept east  coast runner.

Plenty  of cane season left.

Yall should  be  happy. Like  us  in VA you  normally  just get decaying remnants  of a  storm after  its  been over  land. At least this  one is a direct  hit.

2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Looks like an eyewall may be trying to form at the end of that loop.

 

 

Joe Bastardi

 

I was thinking they cancelled the golf tournament tomorrow  for  no reason in NJ

Luckily it looks  like JB will be wrong about rapid intensification. Will still be  some exciting weather.

10 minutes ago, Cayman Tracker said:

Which quadrant of the storm is likely to pack the strongest winds?

Fairly concerned Grand Cayman resident here!

Normally its the  northeast.

May end  up the strongest  of the season.

Just now, ldub23 said:

The type  of season is  my interpretation.  A season where real tropical lows struggle  in very  hostile  conditions while  non tropical lows  have a  better  chance.

25 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Any potential east coast threat from 96L may be higher early next week vs late this week. The 6Z Euro ens is similar to the 0Z with again a handful of threatening members out of 51. So, though not a high threat right now (6Z GEFS still says hardly any threat from this), it will be interesting to see whether or not this later evolves into a significant threat, especially NC north:

96L will be fun to watch.

51 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

This post makes no sense.

1) Where did JB elude to season state anywhere in that tweet? 2) What type of season is it exactly? 3) Why would you ignore any system with potential based on any given season anyway?

The type  of season is  my interpretation.  A season where real tropical lows struggle  in very  hostile  conditions while  non tropical lows  have a  better  chance. Im ignoring Grace  because  i think it will fall apart and Fred might  make  it to a sheared  lopsided  min cat1.. I dont think Grace should  have been named and  its doubtful there  is a  real center  now. Phase 2 MJO, LATE aug and  on the Euro there is a  green thing  in the central tropical atlantic. More suppressive  phase will be  here  in Sept. And  its rather suppressive  now. I  have to reply here. I  mention phase 2 MJO so much because  its supposed to be the  EL PRIMO phase for tropical development. So far  its  produced  nothing  of  note.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2021081500&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=192hr

I agree with JB. In this type  of season the  low  from outside the tropics is the  one to watch.

5 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Well Shear strikes again.  Truly looks like an El Nino set up with the string of upper air lows out there dotting from Florida out to the Leward Islands.

Yea, very  el nino like. Phase 2 MJO isnt  doing  much. 2 very very weak lows.

22 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said:

 

So is that finally  going to end the  constant  flood  here? Phase2 MJO still not  producing anything  of  note.

JB says grace will be crushed  by Fred.

GFS  back to showing  it a  hurricane. Wind and flooding for  many on here.

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs doesn't develop the next storm after Fred. Icon has a sub 1000 low east of Florida  

Yea  GFS dropped  it. If  this  is  MJO phase 2 its  not  doing much.

12 GFS much weaker. See  if Euro shows anything.

The Euro isnt showing anything. Cant find the  06 gfs  to see if it still shows anything. At  least something  is showing  on a  model.

2 hours ago, OKwx_2001 said:

It's not even peak season yet. It's not like August first hits and then it's a cane fest. There's a reason why many consider 8/20 to be the start of peak season. In the last decade there have only been 3 storms before 8/20 to get stronger than Cat 1, and none of those were majors. I've got a feeling a lot of your posts on here claiming this season is going to be inactive are going to age very very poorly...

But Supposedly we are  in the  most favorable  phase  of the  MJO and still basically nothing. Dead Fred and  a  very  struggling  95L.

2 hours ago, LoboLeader1 said:

 

Sounds good  but something  is stopping anything  of  note developing. I  have read  in several places we will be  back in a suppressive  phase  in Sept. Seems  like an awful small window now  for  a hurricane to form.