ldub23

2 hours ago, wasnow215 said:

And looks like another 3-4” of rain this Wed night into Thursday. 

Yea, another flood  coming. 

rain mixed with snow  in April

Nothing  like rain mixed with snow after summer  in March

3 hours ago, RVAman said:

No chance in hell that happens haha.

Lots  of  42 and rain though

7 hours ago, RVAman said:

I prefer it just stay warm at this point. I've gotten accustomed to the warmth.

No chance. No winter=cold spring

And here comes the  cold rainy spring. Snowstorm if it were  January.

I  made a  post way  back in nov  or dec saying  it wasnt going to get  cold  in the east as  long as it was  cold  in alaska and wet  in california. Naturally  i was called an idiot. Next season when the  winter forecasts  come  out  in sept-nov remember how they failed this year. We will have many posts during  next winter with all kinds  of indices, strat warms, neg nao's, and east  coast trofs. Hopefully next winter we will actually  have a  cold snowy winter but  lets simplify the forecasts. Look to Alaska, if they are having an above  normal temp start thats  good for  us. If California  looks  like  it will be dry thats also good for  us. Those are the  2 best  indicators for winter  in the east.

Now the  cold  comes

Will this  be the  beginning  of the real pattern change? 

1 minute ago, RIC Airport said:

I like it.

Winter is  mocking  me.

9 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

@ldub23

 

100%

27 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

18 GFS just picked up on the next threat around the 24th.

This  is the  one

40 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

A nice trend tho. Maybe we can score a 2-4 haha.

Im still hoping for  1 inch

6 hours ago, wasnow215 said:

Probably too soon to say though. Surface maps not good but 7+ days out are virtually meaningless. 

still no sign of  winter at  18z

JB remains  optimistic though how  can winter  come  back when it  never got  here?

GFS at 0z  and  6z says the much advertised  pattern change was  once again a  victim of false advertising

1 hour ago, RIC Airport said:

The snowfall mean on the 18z GEFS was lower than 12z because of fewer hits.

But, interestingly, there was one ensemble member (p09 below) that obliterated SE VA and NE NC. It looks like March 1-2, 1980. I cropped it below for a closer look, if only something like this could actually happen. 

                           

I also looked at the charts for places in the bullseye area and these were the snowfall outputs from p09, @ldub23, @Stormpc.

Richmond: 11"

Ashland/Hanover: 11"

Chesterfield: 11"

West Point: 13"

Accomack: 18"

Norfolk: 19"

Virginia Beach (Oceana): 19"

Chesapeake: 22"

Petersburg: 23"

Chesapeake (Fentress) 24"

Wakefield: 24"

Currituck, NC: 24"

Elizabeth City, NC: 26"

Franklin: 27"

Williamsburg: 28"

Norfolk (NAVSTA): 28"

Suffolk: 28"

Langley AFB: 28"

Newport News: 28"

Emporia: 32"

I will settle  for  12.3 inches

3 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

The 12z Euro is also very close, and we still have PLENTY of time. Verbatim it brings snow up to central and eastern NC and far SE VA. We really don't want to be in the bullseye this far out, I'd prefer the storm stay south on the models then trend north over time. 

 

There  is still hope

For the  love  of God let this  happen

45 minutes ago, RIC Airport said:

18z GEFS is a nice improvement. It's not over, there are some nice hits, best looking chart of the day.

 

Hopefully it will improve tonight

2 minutes ago, Conway7305 said:

18z GFS  PD storm threat went from  snow at 0z to rain at 60 degrees for 18z.  lol.   Cold just vanishes.  Let’s see what the overnight models say.  

The  pattern change advertised since  mid dec still not  happening especially with another  big storm coming  into California. Im still on board with a  perfect winter storm pattern change  occuring  in late March when it doesnt  matter. Hopefully the  18 gfs  is  just a  blip.

RIC jackpot