LibertyBell

Just for the totals though, I think upper Manhattan did really well back during that storm too. Wasn't that another coastal storm that really got going further north which is why the city got 6" and JFK and points east got nothing though? New England did amazing with that storm also. I could see your part of Manhattan getting to 6" this time around too. Or is this more like the two day December 2003 storm except a less favorable track for us?

Using December 2005 as one of my analogs for this storm, city, northwest, northeast, etc., did well while as soon as you got east of Queens there was nada lol.

Yes! I love that area..... Franklin Avenue goes all the way down to the Five Towns area around Hewlett :-) I'm sure you know the snowfall climatology here, but just to fill you in, we usually only jackpot in big el nino events where storms are originally progged to stay just to our south and they make it up here "at the last moment." Examples are February 1983, February 2003 (PD2) and January 2016, all of which were 20"+ events here and the last one was 30"+! January 1996 was also 20"+ but that pretty much buried everyone, and so was the one exception to that rule! Those four are the full list of 20"+ snowfalls for our area since I've been living here. Higher elevated parts of the city will definitely do well. Do you remember December 2005? Central Park (132 ft above sea level) got 6", we got nothing. We ended up with around 25" of snow that season while NYC touched 40" I think that last event in April was the only one in which we jackpotted, as we got half of NYC's total in the big February event.

FYI this idea that this is our last snow chance til late in the month probably isn't right, it's going to be cold all week and I see that temps will only be in the mid 30s by next weekend!

It would be a nice sign if this changed to snow during the day! The earlier the better.

2-8" is a huge range lol. I can buy a surprise for someone but really doubt that would happen here on the south shore where we live lol. I could see 4"+ in the higher elevated parts of the north shore of LI and northern Manhattan and the Bronx though. RIP Nate, this is the kind of event where Mt Zucker could get a nice surprise. I hope he does and gets to enjoy it wherever he is. Where we live is a "cold spot" (meaning lower totals in a paradoxical sense) even when it's well below freezing- I think it has to do with being near sea level and the stabilizing effect of the ocean.

That was pretty much as expected, there's a reason why local mets dont buy into random bands like that. It's like trying to predict where a norlun will set up (which are also more common in southern NJ for some reason.) Consider ourselves lucky if we get 1-3" with more emphasis on the 1" part of that range.

Is it unusual to have rain in Chicago and snow in NYC from the same storm?

If this storm had taken a more favorable track it could have been like the famous early December 2003 two day storm :-( that dumped 20" on Central Long Island and over a foot in the city.

This is the kind of event where the NAM should excel, it's been on a hot streak anyway since 2016.

Relying on a random band to get you up to your predicted snowfall totals is probably not such a good idea..... oh, what you said reminded me of February 2006, one of the winters this is being compared to, where the city got buried by a megaband and those of us just east of that band got half the snow lol.

What storm is that? Two events that I wanted to compare this to is December 2005 (which went badly for us on Long Island) and last year's November 15th storm. If this had taken a better track it could have been like the famous two day early December storm of 2003 :-(

Hey thats not too far from me! I want to see that Bay Effect snow I've heard so much about! ;-) Now I'm wondering if there is such a thing as Jamaica Bay Effect Snow lol.

I've always wondered how South Jersey does better with the back end of storms than we do lol. Even in April storms like the Fools Day storm.

That's pretty much what I thought and goes along with most predictions. 1-3" is pretty good for us for the back end of storms.

Didn't the end of November 1991 have a big snowstorm in Minnesota, similar to what's happening now? I remember reading that many are comparing the two events.

Chris, do you think this might be the single largest influencer of our climate?

Maybe but that 6 inches total in the Poconos sounds about right. Thats what most of the local forecasts are saying.

Yes the two day storm! For some reason during the day it didn't seem to be snowing so hard. We got most of ours at night. And on the second day it ended earlier than I expected- Philly got hit harder than we did.

My favorite storm of all time (no secret here) is Jan 2016. I love large long duration storms that have a large area of 20 and 30 plus inches of snow.

April 1982 was much colder (especially for the time of year.)

what allegations, Don? we are suing the fossil fuel industry in NY, they deserve to be bankrupted after all their lies and coverups. They are a cartel that bribes politicians to curry favor with them and seizes land from people to build dangerous pipelines.

Not in the tropical Atlantic, those waters dont cool until much later. I'm talking about the GOM out to the Carib. and the waters near the Bahamas. That has especially been the case the last few years, when even here in the NE our summers have been extending into the first half of October.

oh that sounds better. I wonder where the best location in the east would be to get the most snow with this storm?

40 at JFK and 37 at Valley Stream, nice radiational cooling night!