LibertyBell

On 6/24/2021 at 9:04 PM, SACRUS said:

Thanks.  Funny timing on the reply at the same time.   Looks like 1933 / 1911 were also perhaps like 2013 type short but strong heat.  22 the exception.  This year looks poised to join the bunch.  Perhaps long duration as well.

wait join which bunch?  the 11,33 bunch?

On 6/22/2021 at 8:12 PM, uncle W said:

1978 was about as bad as it gets for July 4th...highs in the low 60's with light rain all day...the Poconos were about 10 degrees cooler...next year in 1979 it was even cooler...

I liked July 4, 2010....101 degrees at JFK but very low humidity   three out of four degrees were 100+

Just now, SRRTA22 said:

I will call that bluff every single time. Theres no way anyone actually enjoys that type of heat besides Forky

I enjoy seeing records lol.  There's no reason to be outside in that kind of weather though unless you're in a pool or in the ocean lol.

18 hours ago, bluewave said:

The Euro is continuing with a recent summer theme. 96-99 for the usual wam spots around our area. But the 100s go north into New England. It will be interesting to see if our area can sneak in a 100° when the WAR begins to flatten and flow becomes more SW to W.

I dont know Chris.....if EWR or LGA hit 100 but no one else does, it's not really that impressive, because they hit 100 in more years than they dont.  I'll be impressed when we get the kind of heat Seattle is about to get.  But we dont see those kinds of all time heat records in our part of the country anymore.

18 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts...

Morning clouds will yield to a partly sunny day. It will become somewhat warmer. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most places today.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 80°

Newark: 84°

Philadelphia: 81°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 82.5°; 15-Year: 82.5°

Newark: 30-Year: 84.8°; 15-Year: 84.9°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 85.9°; 15-Year: 86.2°

A much warmer weekend lies ahead.

An extreme to perhaps historic heatwave will likely begin to descend on the Pacific Northwest today. Temperatures will rise into the upper 80s in Seattle and lower to middle 90s in Portland. It will become much warmer tomorrow throughout the Pacific Northwest. At its height numerous June and perhaps all-time high temperature records will tumble, including at Portland and Seattle.

The kind of summer I dream of, unfortunately we dont get these type of all time extreme temp records in our part of the country anymore.  NYC's record is from 1936.

5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

A very warm weekend lies ahead. Temperatures could approach or reach 90° in parts of the region on Sunday. The warmth will continue through at least mid-week next week.

In the Pacific Northwest, a historic and potentially unprecedented heatwave began to descend on the region. In response, parts of Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia saw temperatures soar into the 90s today. A few locations even exceeded 100° including the following sites:

The Dalles, OR: 102°
Ephrata, WA: 100°
Lytton, BC: 102°/38.7°C (old record: 101°/38.2°C)
Omak, WA: 100°

This weekend into early next week could see the most extreme heat parts of that region have ever experienced. Monthly and possibly all-time record high temperatures could be challenged or broken. That includes the Portland and Seattle areas. After Monday, the core of the heat will shift somewhat to the north and east. Readings will remain much above normal in parts of eastern Washington State, Idaho, and eastern British Columbia.

Records for select cities:

Kamloops, BC:
June 26: 102° (38.4°C), 2006
June 27: 99° (37.1°C), 2006
June 28: 100° (37.7°C), 2008
June 29: 102° (39.1°C), 2008

June record: 102° (39.1°C)
All-time record: 105° (40.8°C)

Portland:
June 26: 102°, 2006
June 27: 98°, 2000
June 28: 100°, 2008
June 29: 97°, 1951

June record: 102°
All-time record: 107°

Seattle:
June 26: 90°, 2006
June 27: 92°, 2015
June 28: 91°, 1995 and 2008
June 29: 93°, 1987

June record: 96°
All-time record: 103°

Spokane:
June 26: 100°, 1925
June 27: 102°, 2015
June 28: 105°, 2015
June 29: 98°, 1939

June record: 105°
All-time record: 108°

Climate change has increased the frequency, magnitude, and duration of extreme heat events in the United States and worldwide. Further increases are likely in coming decades as the world's climate continues to warm.

During the 1971-00 period, there was a statistical 0.9% probability that the temperature would reach or exceed 90° during June 26-28. For the 1991-20 period, that figure had increased to 2.0%. That's an implied 55% increase tied to climate change. Actual outcomes saw Seattle record 90° temperatures on 1.1% of days within that period during 1971-00 and 4.4% during the 1991-20 timeframe. For Portland, the statistical probability of a 90° day during the June 26-28 period was 6.2% during the 1971-00 period and 10.4% during the 1991-20 period. That's an implied 40% increase tied to climate change. The actual outcomes were 6.6% during the 1971-00 period and 12.2% during the 1991-20 period. That actual outcomes exceeded statistical outcomes is consistent with ongoing warming.   

In large part on account of Phoenix's recent extreme heat event, there is an implied 83% probability that June 2021 will become Phoenix's warmest June on record with a mean temperature near 95.1°. The existing record of 94.8° was set in 2013 and tied in 2016.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around June 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

The SOI was +10.54 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.210 today.

On June 23 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.532 (RMM). The June 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.207 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.9° (1.9° above normal).

 

Don, with Seattle breaking its all time record by almost 10 degrees, I think we have to temper our hot summer hopes because the only two times it ever hit 100 there weren't so hot here (2006, 2009).  If Seattle hits 110 I think it would be the greatest heat record the US has ever seen.

3 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Still ridiculous for Portland.       Next 4 days have not changed much in 5 runs:

Not much help from the EURO ENS.

While we play catch-up:

Seattle could hit 110 and Portland could hit 120!  Thats crazy!

as for NYC you need to subtract 10 degrees from those temps lol

On 6/24/2021 at 5:07 PM, forkyfork said:

it's one op run at day 10. i think the west atlantic ridge keeps the trough far enough west for a humid pattern with storms

the news this summer is going to be the extreme heat in the west.  Whats about to happen in Seattle has NEVER happened in NYC....they could hit 110 degrees?!  Could you ever imagine, Seattle being hotter than NYC, EWR or Philly has EVER been?
  Wow!  I heard that people there are worried that it'll be so hot that birds will start falling out of the sky en masse.  And only one third of the people there have A/C!

Seattle has only hit 100 twice before (2006, 2009) and the highest ever was 103 in 2009.  Neither summer was very hot here, but that's besides the point, beating their former all time record by nearly 10 degrees is going to be amazing!  I heard even areas right at the ocean are going to hit 100!

45 minutes ago, bluewave said:

If Seattle can make it to 100°, then it would be a first for June.

 

Time Series Summary for Seattle Tacoma Area, WA (ThreadEx) - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	2017	96	0
-	1995	96	0
-	1955	96	0
2	2019	95	0
3	2002	94	0
-	1982	94	0
-	1970	94	0

 

 

wow the top 3 in that list eventually got very hot here too.

1955 and 1995 moreso than 2017 which was more humid than hot but still.....

2002 was very hot for us too.
 

On 7/2/2020 at 8:30 PM, SACRUS said:

Locked in .  Hot Fri, warm but cooler (splendid) Sat and Sunday.  Enjoy the fourth!  Heat is poised to return on Monday and really sizzle the rest of next week.

Oh okay so it seems like the week before the 4th will be hotter than the week after?  lol I know this is from 2020 but it looks like you're forecasting the same thing for this year?

On 7/5/2020 at 8:46 AM, SACRUS said:

Going to be too cool for today but Fri/ Sat right on.  Enjoy the rest of the july 4th weekend.

I have the week after July 4th off, any idea if it gets hotter then or more warm and humid?

The week I'm talking about is July 5th-12th.

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Time to start looking way out there into the July 4th Holiday weekend

ECM : showing a warm/humid pattern in the D10 and beyond as the W Atlantic Ridge is still pushing heights up along the east coast.

GFS : shows a bit less ridging and hing up front near by.  

Have to watch the Rockies Ridge heat pulsing east and the Western Atlantic Ridge building west and merging in the first half of July.

Right now looking warm and humid

 

I think you're missing one data point for JFK because the 101 at JFK for July 4th 2010 actually seems to be in 2011 lol.

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

one of the hottest stretches here in recent memory-then the rubberband snapped and late July and Aug were cool

 

the last time that JFK hit 100!

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Rain forest out here, 84/72. Steamy 

hence the damn bugs

44 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

days are getting shorter that's when you know the end of summer is just around the corner..

lol July is our hottest month.

I hope your house hits 110 in July

41 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

 

Temps can get into the 80s in October and the highest daily temp averages are in late July. 

JFK was close to 95 in October just a few years ago with a heat index near 100

38 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

with the windows open tonight and a cool chilly breeze i might have to turn the heat on

I had a mosquito come inside, no thanks for keeping the windows open.

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

These long range runs start to lose reliability after about 7 to 10 days. That’s why I mention what needs to happen for a certain outcome. The record heat and ridging out West is closer to the June 2015 to 2020 composite. But the magnitude  of the Western heat and ridging is in a class by itself this June. Notice how much stronger the heat out West and ridging is than the recent June composite. This makes sense given such an extreme drought. So we’ll have to see how the drought feedback influences the ridge pattern as we move into July.

Forecast for more record ridging and heat over the Western US in late June

 

Did I see that right that Seattle could hit 100 degrees on Saturday?

When was the last time that happened- it must be really rare!

I've also heard that boating is banned on Lake Tahoe because the levels of the lake are so low that trash is showing up that people have been thoughtlessly dumping into the lake over the last few decades!  800 pounds of trash taken out yesterday!

Thunder lightning and some rain here after 2-3 am.....

16 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

 I don’t want to read one complain about it!! hahaha

I like my heat with very low humidity too.  Water vapor is nothing but an air pollutant.

16 hours ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

That’s the reason why I despise the summer and relish the cold and snow of winter. Thus my avatar and name.

Blame it on too much of the earth being covered by oceans.  We need to start using that water.

15 hours ago, bluewave said:

This higher humidity is part of our shift to a humid subtropical climate. 60-80 days a year with 70° dew points used to be normal for the Delmarva to Southern NJ. Now it has moved up to the NYC area.

 

 

 

I wouldn't mind if we started using the oceans for our water supply.  70% of the earth being covered by water is entirely too much.  We'd have a much better climate if we could get it down to 50% or so.

On 6/20/2021 at 10:32 PM, Juliancolton said:

I miss this.

you'll get it again later this week.....that might be the last time for awhile though

14 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

My bedroom AC stays on about 20 hours a day now so that it's a comfortable temp when I go to bed. The 19th century windows are too tiny for anything bigger than about a 5000 BTU unit, which would be just about worthless to bring the 400 sqft space back down from 80F or so during the daytime. I turn it off for a few hours in the morning to avoid any issues with ice.

500 BTU is standard though.  It's fine for most uses, although I dont have the same size bedroom as you do.....mine is more like 120 sq ft.

On 6/20/2021 at 7:25 AM, bluewave said:

We’ll need the WAR to retrograde back to the Plains or Rockies to have a shot at some westerly flow on the warmest days. Looks like the rest of June is a higher dew point southerly flow pattern. So 90s on the warmest of days rather than 100°. While places like like LGA have snuck in a few 100°s in recent years, the onshore flow has reduced our 100° potential. Newark just set the record for going 7 years with no 100° days. The previous record was 6 years from 1967 to 1972. But that was a cooler summer pattern. Notice how many more 90° days Newark has had during this stretch since 2013. So it has been a hot and humid summer pattern with high numbers of 90° days.

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature < 100 
for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Ending Date
1	2892	2021-06-19
2	2602	1973-08-27
3	2176	1943-06-24
4	1473	1948-08-25
5	1462	1963-06-30

Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Annual
Mean	0	0	0	0	2	4	12	8	3	0	0	0	29
2020	0	0	0	0	0	5	17	9	0	0	0	0	31
2019	0	0	0	0	1	4	14	4	3	1	0	0	27
2018	0	0	0	0	4	5	9	14	4	0	0	0	36
2017	0	0	0	0	3	5	9	2	3	0	0	0	22
2016	0	0	0	0	3	3	16	13	5	0	0	0	40
2015	0	0	0	0	2	4	11	13	5	0	0	0	35
2014	0	0	0	0	0	2	8	2	3	0	0	0	15

Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Annual
Mean	0	0	0	0	1	3	7	6	2	0	0	0	18
1972	0	0	0	0	0	0	16	4	1	0	0	0	21
1971	0	0	0	0	0	6	7	7	2	0	0	0	22
1970	0	0	0	0	2	2	5	8	5	0	0	0	22
1969	0	0	0	0	1	3	4	6	1	0	0	0	15
1968	0	0	0	0	0	4	9	9	1	0	0	0	23
1967	0	0	0	0	0	5	1	1	0	0	0	0	7

 

This looks more like the kind of pattern that brings TC up the coast rather than gets 100 degree temps to the coast.

In years where we had TC strikes in the same year that we had 100 degree temps (notably years like 1944, 1999, 2011, 2012), the TC strikes occurred after the main summer heat was over (late August through October.)