16 hours ago, etudiant said:

Not sure that name plate power rating gives a full story. Nuclear is pretty much what it says on the tin, apart from re-fueling breaks. 

Solar at peak should be derated by about a factor of 4 to 6 to account for the night time outage and the less than full sun seasonal and daytime intervals.

Wind is similarly intermittent, except that too strong also halts the turbines, so at least similar derating as solar.

In theory, those issues can be solved by very dispersed siting and massive interconnects, but those discussions are nowhere near the needed depth, much less close to getting political support.

 

there is such a thing as storage of energy you know? we can store solar and wind energy in chemical batteries to use later

16 hours ago, skierinvermont said:

Yes these considerations are all factored into the levelized cost of electricity. It's why power companies, in the free market, choose wind and solar more than any other type of new generation source today. If you're a power company trying to make money, wind and solar are already your top choice. We should be nudging them in the right direction to speed up the process and the reconciliation bill does exactly that.

it did until Munchkin got ahold of it.

15 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That's related to the warmer ( pun ) truth right there ( bold ).  

Solar voltaic technologies can be advanced much further ... So too can battery tech - where so in concert with networking and load balancing, wind is still quite infantile. These are unexplored fully, and Hydro isn't even in discussion. Jesus, the oceanic tide dependability is a gravitational engine that is limitless.  In other words, their capacity has not been reached.   Not even close really. 

But, the truth is, they don't want to be reached - that's the elephant in every debate hall, water cooler discussion, or social media platform there is. Opposition has vested interests that rely upon traditional modes, and thus really it's a form of "protectionism" - in a more open definition of what the word really means. Instead of tariffs and/or limitations on trade to protect internal economic interests, in this sense they are limiting "trades of information" in order to protect their own internal economic interests...  Anyway, it is also a typical strategy to masquerade as prophet of infeasibility and hardship - one is not true, the latter is tough shit, you don't have any choice.

They lose me at economic hardship arguments. Simple reason: There is no economics in a future where they don't exist, and climate holocaust means that.  They are simply not connecting with that reality.  They may as well just cut out the smoke-screening of their rationale and just admit, they don't see climate change as a legit threat.

Many of these fields of research ( or where implement into physical use) are still primitive compared to how far they can be advanced.  Relying on the right-now scalar capacity to foot their arguments is wantonly short-sighted. 

they cant claim economic hardship because renewables are price competitive with fossil fuels and dont kill you or destroy the planet

12 hours ago, bluewave said:

The large size of solar and wind installations is one of the greatest obstacles to wider acceptance. 

https://www.sierraclub.org/sierra/2021-4-fall/feature/nimby-threat-renewable-energy

Achieving those climate goals involves a big commitment to big renewable energy projects. That entails a willingness to site them—even in spitting distance of someone's backyard. Mark Jacobson, director of Stanford University's Atmosphere/Energy Program, has attempted to quantify how many renewable energy installations the United States will actually need. He reckons 223,000 five-megawatt onshore wind turbines, 171,000 five-megawatt offshore turbines, 44,000 50-megawatt utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) systems, 77 100-megawatt geothermal plants, 137 million five-kilowatt residential rooftop PV systems, 8.7 million 100-kilowatt commercial and government rooftop PV systems, and 19 100-megawatt concentrated solar power plants.

All those turbines and solar panels (plus the requisite transmission lines) have to go somewhere. But many communities—including those full of avowed liberals and environmentalists—are working hard to make sure they go somewhere else. In Klickitat County, Washington, retirees who moved to the area for its scenic views convinced their board of commissioners to stop permitting solar farms. In 2019, California's San Bernardino County prohibited the construction of big wind and solar farms on more than a million acres of private land. The Los Angeles Times said that the ruling was "bending to the will of residents who say they don't want renewable energy projects industrializing their rural desert communities." In Coxsackie, New York, a group called Citizens for Sensible Solar organized to stop the construction of utility-scale solar plants that would "destroy the rural aesthetic of their homes.” In Culpeper, Virginia, the blocking of an 80-megawatt solar farm led to the creation of the nonprofit Citizens for Responsible Solar, which works to stop utility-scale projects nationwide. "Rural communities are under attack from big, corporate solar developers (some foreign) who want to build large-scale, industrial solar power plants on agricultural- and forestry-zoned land to take advantage of lower development costs," the group says.

In terms of organizing heft, no rural mom-and-pop NIMBY group can rival the Alliance to Protect Nantucket Sound, which waged a 16-year battle to kill the Cape Wind Project, a 130-turbine, 454-megawatt offshore wind farm that would have provided 75 percent of the energy for Cape Cod, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket. The powerhouse group spanned the ideological spectrum, with support from both the Kennedy family and billionaire William Koch, and was known for burying opponents in blizzards of filings and technical arguments. The late Ted Kennedy, then a Democratic senator from Massachusetts, expressed his objection simply: "Don't you realize—it's where I sail." Koch, who donated $5 million to the cause, is a big sailor too (he won the America's Cup in 1992), but he's also in the fossil fuel business, and he's motivated by protecting his extensive real estate holdings against "visual pollution." He told The New York Times, "The ability to acquire a special property where I can create a family compound for my children and extended family was and is very meaningful to me."

The would-be developers of Cape Wind surrendered their federal lease in 2017 after a series of setbacks orchestrated in part by the Alliance to Protect Nantucket Sound. "We must remain vigilant to ensure long-term protection for the Sound so that it is never again threatened by industrial development," says the group on its website.

 

 

 

we're building  a huge wind farm offshore, I dont see anyone complaining about that

it's 300 miles wide

On 11/10/2021 at 12:40 AM, Silver Meteor said:

As an avid reader with decades of experience in the stock and commodities markets I can comfortably say the typical citizen who touts wind and solar is economically illiterate. As I said here some time ago, nuclear is the future. This is obvious. So obvious I even recommended buying stock in uranium miners (advice that already would have earned you a hefty return with much more to come in the years ahead.)

The #1 article on Quillette for 2019 is from a brilliant science journalist about renewables. Get ready for some cognitive dissonance:

https://quillette.com/2019/02/27/why-renewables-cant-save-the-planet/

Thorium dude, the answer is always Thorium

18 hours ago, bluewave said:

There seems to be an inverse correlation between the La Niña strength and our winter weather since 2010. The stronger coupled La Ninas in a two year sequence actually had more snow. But before 2010, it was usually the weaker of the La Ninas which were snowier.

Coupled La Niña ONI and NYC snowfall

Stronger of two years bolded

17-18….-1.0…..40.9”

16-17…..-0.7….30.2”

 

11-12…..-1.1……7.4”

10-11…..-1.6…..61.9”

 

08-09….-0.8….27.6”

07-08….-1.6…..12.4”

 

05-06…..-0.9…40.0”

 

00-01……-0.7….35.0”

99-00……-1.7….16.3”

 

 

whats the least snowiest?  neutral?

14 hours ago, bluewave said:

We had the strong -PNA with the 16-17 La Niña winter. But the EPO was more neutral that year. 95-96 was the most perfect balance of -NAO and -EPO that we ever had from December through March.

 

One can argue 95-96 was perfect November through April!

19 hours ago, kat5hurricane said:

Still haven't gone to long sleeves yet. Walked outside for lunch yesterday with no jacket or pullover which is nice for the second week of November but odd at the same time.

In any event, the weather this week has been glorious. Today seems to be another good one.

I wonder if everyone remembers last year at this time we had 5 straight days of 70+ and even upper 70s (November 8-12) it was a +5 November which is amazing.  The only difference was we had a freeze on Halloween last year, so we had an Indian Summer in November.

31 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

This has to be one of the most boring stretches of weather we have had. Once the wind picks up Friday leaves are going to fall like crazy here on the uws. 

There is nothing better than clear skies and low humidity.  It can snow during actual winter, as long as it's nice and sunny the rest of the time.

7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts…

Today will become mostly sunny and warm. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 64°

Newark: 69°

Philadelphia: 68°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 55.9°; 15-Year: 55.9°

Newark: 30-Year: 56.9°; 15-Year: 57.2°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 57.9°; 15-Year: 57.8°

It will turn noticeably cooler this weekend.

Maybe we have a chance to hit 70 one more time, today.

Think this is the last one for the year, Don?

29 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

JFK just missed at 69 and LGA hit 72

One more chance to hit 70 today!

7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Under abundant sunshine, the mercury surged into the upper 60s and lower 70s across much of the region. High temperatures included:

Allentown: 69°
Baltimore: 75°
Boston: 70°
Bridgeport: 64°
Hartford: 70°
Islip: 70°
New York City: 68°
Newark: 74°
Philadelphia: 71°
Portland: 66°
Providence: 71°
Washington, DC: 73°

Newark reached 70° for the 176th time this year. The old record was 173 days, which was set in 2010. Four of the five years that saw 170 or more such days have occurred since 2000 and three have occurred since 2010.

With the exception of Thursday, the unseasonable warmth will persist through Friday. Nevertheless, the first 10 days of November will average solidly cooler than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. A cold front will bring some rain Thursday night into Friday. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall is likely. Afterward, it will turn noticeably cooler for the weekend and into next week.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through November 9 4 pm is 15.29".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was +20.61 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.143 today.

On November 7 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.113 (RMM). The November 6-adjusted amplitude was 1.184 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 57% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.6° (0.4° below normal).

 

JFK and LGA? also got one for MPO, Don?

On 11/8/2021 at 6:05 PM, forkyfork said:

the rainforest ones are cool pets

 

that will kill you

On 11/8/2021 at 10:58 PM, MJO812 said:

I put ketchup on eggs

try pieced green peppers next time

On 11/8/2021 at 7:37 PM, skierinvermont said:

Yes unfortunately. 

this country isn't one nation, it's like 50 different nations.  States like NY should and will ban coal products from WV and other fossil fuel states (should ban guns too....we have enough of a problem with them.)

On 11/8/2021 at 7:37 PM, skierinvermont said:

Yes unfortunately. 

guess what else is a sham....COP26.  Over 500 fossil fuel lobbyists there, we weren't able to make headway against the tobacco cartels until we banned tobacco lobbyists from conferences.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/the-gift-of-endless-memory/

Endless memory....I wonder if this is a useful trait or will it actually cause more problems than its worth?

https://twitter.com/i/events/1453040298154606599

12 hours ago, bluewave said:

Our last bookend La Niña was 17-18. Snowy mid-December to January 4th then early spring from mid-January through the 80° high in late February. Record snows in March to early April. 16-17 had a very even distribution of snow from December through March. It was really  mild from late December through February. We had the famous Denver style 60° the day before the February blizzard. 10-11 was our last front-loaded La Niña winter with Newark recording 60"+ from late December to late January before the snows shut off. 
 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
2016-2017	3.2	14.0	14.7	7.4	T	39.3
2017-2018	6.0	22.0	1.4	31.9	4.6	65.9

 

Maximum 35-Day Total Snowfall 
for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Dates	Missing Days
Period of record: 1931-02-01 to 2021-11-06
1	61.6	2010-12-26 through 2011-01-29	0

Chris do you consider 1995-96 to be a book end winter on steroids?  It's interesting so many of these book end winters had April snowstorms..... 1955-56, 1995-96, 2017-18

11 hours ago, uncle W said:

it snowed 4" on April 8th 1956...I was in the first grade and vaguely remember it...I remember the April snow in 1957 better...from March 12th 1956 to April 8th NYC got over 24" of snow...1955-56 was well on its way to being the seventh lackluster winter in a row for NYC until that happened...

How much snow did we get in April 1957?

Must be a very rare case of significant snows in back to back Aprils?

April 1996 and 1997 would be another incidence of that, although not as significant in the city as it was on Long Island (east of here) and in New England as well as coastal NJ-- maybe more urban heat island effect influences in urban areas by then.

11 hours ago, uncle W said:

it snowed 4" on April 8th 1956...I was in the first grade and vaguely remember it...I remember the April snow in 1957 better...from March 12th 1956 to April 8th NYC got over 24" of snow...1955-56 was well on its way to being the seventh lackluster winter in a row for NYC until that happened...

wow almost reached 40" in 1955-56.....the April snow makes it an even closer match to what happened in 2017-18

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/andrew-carnegie-hero-fund-commission-60-minutes-2021-11-07/

Carnegie heroes and the neuroscience behind acts of heroism

Scott Pelley meets with Carnegie Hero Fund awardees and reports on a possible difference in brain make-up for those who commit heroic acts.

I also wanted to post the links to what I saw on 60 Minutes

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/taylor-oil-spill-louisiana-coast-guard-60-minutes-2021-11-07/

Taylor Energy Oil Spill: Stanching the longest-running oil spill you've likely never heard of

In 2004, Hurricane Ivan brought down a massive oil platform operated by Taylor Energy, in the Gulf of Mexico. For years, oil has been seeping into the Gulf. Jon Wertheim reports on the efforts of a Coast Guard captain and a Cajun engineer to find a solution.

I believe you may find this interesting.....the self organization factors that developed the human brain have much in common with the self organizational principle that created the superstructure of the universe, so this design is not a one off and may be more common than any of us ever realized.....see the following:

https://nautil.us/issue/50/emergence/the-strange-similarity-of-neuron-and-galaxy-networks