LibertyBell

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Funny how JFK is warmer than LGA.  That 070 wind is mild this time of year

all roads are snowcovered here with heavy snow coming down

1 hour ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said:

we are getting bombed right now in red bank in northern Monmouth. couple of inches down and heavy snow hanging on

 

 

This storm is already overperforming here on the south shore of Long Island, very heavy snow sticking to everything including roads and my pond has been frozen over since this morning- where are the plows?

Just now, Snow88 said:

Looks great outside

Daytime heavy snows are the best!  I dont care what happens at night lol

2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

About 3-4” and ripping on the uws tiny flake size too

This storm is already overperforming here on the south shore of Long Island, very heavy snow sticking to everything including roads and my pond has been frozen over since this morning.  The plows should be out here!

11 hours ago, gravitylover said:

I wish my property was right for solar power. The house and ground faces generally east and all of the south and west sides are lined with 60-75 foot trees on the neighbors sides so at prime time I get very little sun once the trees are leafed out. I could pull a few hours early in the day but I don't think that would be enough to justify the cost.

ugh and with all this rain thats been hitting us in our new climate pattern it feels like we get sun like maybe one day out of every week

10 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

2007-08: 78.2"

2008-09: 64.8"

2009-10: 46.1"

2010-11: 69.3"

2011-12: 25.5"

2012-13: 47.7"

2013-14: 96.2"

2014-15: 48.5"

2015-16: 35.0"

2016-17: 41.6"

2017-18: 62.5"

 

I think the fact that it was basically 1 dud surrounded by good winters made it more tolerable. Avg is around 43"

haha 2002-03 was good therapy for me after 2001-02

10 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

1972-73 and 2001-02 actually did ok snow wise here but were very warm winters. 1972-73 was actually a few inches above avg. 

That puts 2011-12 in a whole new light in that it was a widespread suckage for everyone!

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

Allentown is doing very well, so far. My sister was in Hawley and reported similar scenes.

Oh I spend my weekends just north of there in the mountains.  I'm on the south shore of Nassau County during the week.

This storm is already overperforming here on the south shore of Long Island, very heavy snow sticking to everything including roads and my pond has been frozen over since this morning.

In Carbon County in PA it had been snowing since last weekend lol.

8 hours ago, weathafella said:

Lol....I did that from the 1960s on until the internet.

Haha I think we are going to LOVE this winter, Jer!

This storm is already overperforming here on the south shore of Long Island, very heavy snow sticking to everything including roads and my pond has been frozen over since this morning

5 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

You live 5 miles off the ocean in Southern New Jersey. Even with a northeast wind the flow is off the ocean. You guys rely on strong blocking to make snow possible.

He would have loved Feb 1899 (Cape May 34 inches of snow- state record!)

6 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Ohhhh, makes sense, I thought you were on eastern LI. Even a NE flow is onshore for you. Tuff place for early season snow!!!

wow 6 hours later and still all snow very heavy snow here on the south shore of western nassau!

6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

It's difficult to be sure about storm tracks. But the kind of blocking that could take hold during at least part of December would favor above to much above average snowfall for December. I would not be surprised to see 6" or more snow in December and possibly in excess of 10".

We are already seeing this storm overachieve here on the south shore! It looks like midwinter out there with really pretty heavy snow sticking to everything and my pond has been frozen here since this morning!

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think 2004 is fine.....he loves 2006.

Just take any modest el nino that was mild in the northeast and and cool and rainy in New Mexico, and its fine. lol jk

Yes I like that analog too but I thought it was ironic he was using that set of analogs and then predicting that snowfall in the NE will be below normal.  As soon as I read your outlook, Ray, I knew he would have a problem with it haha.

5 hours ago, Huffwx said:

Vets day storm was 1987. 

 

I'm not sure what you mean by no longer suppressed. I'm a philly native who lives in SW VA.  We had 2 storms shunted to our south last year were we got 2-4 and south areas into NC got 6-10 inches. 

Oh thats what I originally thought so maybe he was thinking of that one too.  I dont remember any November snowstorm in prior years.

I guess it's relative about suppressed storm tracks because in our area we've had a tendency for storms to be more amped up than what models were originally showing- it's been happening for a few years now.

Sure scientific discussion is awesome, I was just referring to the fact that the prolonged drought in the SW which seems to be a yearly issue has spurred these fires to historic levels.

On 11/6/2018 at 12:40 PM, forkyfork said:

denier board

he's a bored denier lol.

Honestly, who cares what was going in a different epoch?  The causes and rate of warming are far different (and higher) now than they were back then.  It has about as much relevance as dinosaurs living when the whole planet was tropical. 

How about we are in the middle of the greatest mass extinction in the history of the planet and it's humanity-induced?  Because of human overpopulation, pollution and manipulation of the environment.  That's far more relevant.

On 11/13/2018 at 3:42 PM, forkyfork said:

i will not "debate" people who think co2 isn't causing climate change. you're wrong. the end.

CO2 plus methane and pollution, all of which humans are contributing to.  Time to thin the herd.

On 2/21/2016 at 4:50 PM, blizzard1024 said:

 

Don't call people denialists. Many are the real scientists who understand enough about science to question climate change. Plus how do you know that someone on this forum did not have a relative killed in the holocaust. The idea behind denialist is to equate them to the holocaust deniers.  IMO this is a very serious ad hominem attack on certain people. This person and others should be warned IMO. This is a very serious allegation and could be quite offensive.  

No we are equating them to tobacco causes cancer denalism.  Sadly some 'scientists' are in the pay of corporations and they spread ignorance to fuel the for profit agenda of those who employ them.  Exxon, Merck, Philip-Morris, Monsanto, Dow, DuPont and a few others come to mind.  Fortunately all of these have been exposed with Freedom of Information Act requests.

On 11/10/2018 at 1:21 PM, forkyfork said:

and the correct answer is abortion 

Yes reduce climate change and pollution by reversing human overpopulation, we'll start with the climate change deniers first.

On 12/24/2015 at 11:09 PM, Jonger said:

 

You could heat the globe up 20F and humans aren't going anywhere. We have people living in every climate type on earth and we are really only meant for tropics. Go outside without clothes at 40 - 45F and you will be dead by morning. That's not adaption.

And do you know what the life expectancy is in tropical regions?  Nasty infections abound!  And lol I realize your post is from 2015 and you didn't know California would be burning down from forest fires, but still.

On 12/27/2015 at 6:33 PM, weatherpruf said:

People just don't wanna believe it because it is, as someone once said, an inconvenient truth....

Why is it inconvenient to them?  Do they own stock in fossil fuel companies?  Ironic thing is these "conservatives" should be opposing fossil fuel and pipeline companies because they are now using eminent domain to seize private property and paying police to forcibly remove people where they want to build dangerously explosive pipelines.

On 11/6/2018 at 12:41 PM, forkyfork said:

blah blah blah blah blah

Ironic to see that kind of climate change denialism when unprecedented levels of forest fires are destroying California.

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That was moderate.

Yeah and meanwhile in a different thread Raindance is using 1957-58, 1986-87 and 2004-05 as his top analogs lol.

I just responded in that one.

6 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Angel Fire finished at -28F the other morning, which is record cold for this time of year. The mountains here are typically 0-30F all day, from about mid-Nov to mid-Mar, when snow-packed. Anything outside that range above 8,000 feet is a bit unusual. I haven't any readings below the -30s since I've lived here, I think the all-time record in NM is around -50.

I was pleased to see 1986 show up on Tropical Tidbits as a top match for October. I'm pretty sure 1986 had a Nov-snow storm down to the NE coastal plain too. November is behaving a lot like 1986/1957 with maybe 2004 or another warm year to offset 1957 in the East, and those years were good SOI matches for July-Oct.

So far I like 1957, 1986, 1986, 2004 as a good blend for where Nov is and may end up.

I think you're talking about the Vet Day 1986 snowstorm?  Winter 1986-87 was interesting, with 50-55 inches just south of NYC with NYC getting fringed a lot with about half that snowfall,  In the new climate those storms would probably track more northward, we hardly ever see suppressed tracks anymore outside of the extreme winter of 2009-10 and even then the tracks eventually adjusted northward.

1957-58, 1986-87, 2004-05 would be a nice nino lineup except I think the first two of those were stronger than this one is likely to be.  All of them had over 40 inches of snow here or close by (in the case of 1986-87 just to our south.)

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

He must be trolling at this point...at least I hope...anyway, looking forward to shoveling the 6" of low el nino solar off of my driveway tomorrow night.

low solar.... does that mean no sun angle issues for late season events? ;-)