LibertyBell

16 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Interesting question. Is it possible that the original diagnosis of the faulty weld was incorrect? If not, the records should be revised as appropriate. Accuracy matters.

Personally, I believe 2011 may hold the record or be slightly behind. Statistically, the 1983 figure is so extreme, the faulty gauge seems like a reasonable explanation. However, White Plains recorded 74.15" that year, so a mid-70s figure might be plausible.

Don and Chris, I distinctly remember 1983 being extremely wet and hot- we did set a record that year, the only question is by how much?

I'm amazed that 2011 had so much, I dont remember it being as wet as 1983 was, 2011 in my memory just had the extremely wet August.  And also amazed that 2005 isn't up on that list.

17 hours ago, bluewave said:

I wonder if there was some type of error at the NYC rain gauge in 1983. It was the only station in the area to reach 80 inches of precipitation that year. In any event, several stations are in the top 10 for 2018 updated through yesterday.

Westtest years around the area

EWR

#1........69.91....2011

#2........65.50....1983

#12......52.38....2018

NYC

#1.......80.56.....1983

#2.......72.81.....2011

#9.......59.09.....2018

LGA

#1......65.34.....2011

#2......60.84.....1983

#9......51.94.....2018

JFK

#1.....59.12......1983

#2....60.84.......1983

#9....50.64.......2018

HPN

#1....74.15.......1983

#2....73.29.......2011

#20...53.15......2018

ISP

#1....65.32......1989

#5....57.67......2018

 

Chris which one of these is for 1983?

JFK

#1.....59.12......1983

#2....60.84.......1983

#9....50.64.......2018

Number 1 and 2?

1983 was amazing for how hot and moisture laden it was!

8 hours ago, Snow88 said:

I don't like how the tellies look near the storm. 

 

They trended the wrong way this past week. It's early to give up but it's not looking good

I remember a similar thing happened in December 2010 when we just missed out on a system that went out to sea and then after Christmas we got the big one.

16 minutes ago, Rjay said:

15:1 sounds about right 

LOL that is about as close to a thread the needle event as you can get.  It looks like a lesser version of Jan 2016, where those both south and north of us got much less.  Is that spot of 20-22 in a lt grey color in SW Monmouth the jackpot area for the entire storm ;-)

It would be amazing if thats how it actually happened.

Being a bit more conservative, even 10:1 ratios mean around 10-12 inches. 16 inches in that jackpot area.

8 minutes ago, Toekneeweather said:

T

I haven’t seen Yakutsk ever at -80 but I’m sure they’ve hit. Yakutsk did hit 101 in 2011 all time high. But it doesn’t hit every year. It does seem to have 90’s every year. I would love to visit that city during the summer though for some reason. The two small cities you just mentioned hold for two of the coldest temperatures in the northern hemisphere 

coldest:

Oymyakon reached −67.7 °C (−89.9 °F)

 

2nd coldest:

Verkhoyansk −67.6 °C (−89.7 °F)

 

by the way para gfs was suppressed for next week.

I know they have permafrost in the winter, I just dont know how much it snows there.  I've always wanted to see them too, and been envious of their temperature extremes.  Sometimes I wish we didn't have a huge ocean like the Pacific to the west of us and North America was much larger, then maybe we'd have temperature extremes like that too.

Other places to check out and keep track of are cities like Sapporo, in Japan, they have noreasters just like we do, but in the same way the West Pac sees much larger and more frequent typhoons, cities like Sapporo get much larger noreasters too.  I remember seeing pictures of snow that were tens of feet high (not drifts!)

2 minutes ago, Toekneeweather said:

It’s Oymyakon and I think most times Yakutsk has the coldest temperature before the rest of these smallercities or towns. It tells me thats going to get really cold soon. Yakutsk must be a beautiful city during the summer. Crystal clear blue skies with a nice breeze with many days reaching into the 80’s

Yaktusk can get to 100 or higher in the summer and down to about -80 in the winter.  The spelling of the other cities depends upon the translation, they use J and Y interchangeably, I've seen it spelled with a J too.  That city gets to 90 in the summer and the lowest I have them listed for is -98 in the winter.  Verkhoyansk has gotten close to 100 in the summer and -90 in the winter.

13 minutes ago, Toekneeweather said:

It should be -50 in Yakutsk Siberia  Monday morning their time just before sunrise around 9:17am 

ive been paying attention to this city’s temperatures for a long time probably ten years and I don’t ever remember it this cold & this early. Another 20 days really of having less sun and it than it finally starts retreating back. Of course for us we gain day light but some of these cities don’t have sun weeks and possibly months after winter solstice. 

Thats a famous city- the one with the record for being the coldest city in the world and the one with the largest temperature variations.

Two others that are close by, but are considered towns and not cities and are even colder, are Omyakon and Verkhoyansk.  Look at their temps too.

On 11/30/2018 at 3:16 PM, forkyfork said:

i hope the euro snowstorm disappears for a week so i don't have to see snow maps every 6 hours

Looks like you're getting your wish lol

2 hours ago, purduewx80 said:

meteorologists don't look at ensemble average snowfall a week+ in advance to predict whether or not there may be a storm.

He sounds like a stock market trader.

4 hours ago, rclab said:

So true, even though it would be interesting to see the Folks that measure in the park walking around funny because of where their rulers ended up.

Maybe they make the same mistake some of our posters make and stick the ruler in upside down ;-)

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

It would be pretty wild if we could get our first season with a 6 inch storm in Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, and Mar for NYC. Posters won't be happy if we get an under-measured storm  in one of those months around 5.8" or 5.9".

Thats not enough I want April too ;-)

1896- was that the year with the very cold January blizzard?

4 hours ago, uncle W said:

sounds like fake news...

It's interesting to see Lee Goldberg talk about it so early.

2 hours ago, Toekneeweather said:

They have to wet the ground don’t you see it on the text that national weather service states. Today we had a trace of frozen stuff but longbeachsurf was talking about a few snow flurries that is not a trace. Flakes flying around and never really wetting the ground is not a trace. Maybe I’m wrong but I can picture a trace basically some white rain and boom it’s a trace

What exactly do you think happens to those snowflakes?  "Wetting" the ground is a very subjective thing, if the snow flakes dont accumulate, they are melting, it has to be one or the other.  Either they accumulate when they hit the ground or they melt.  I think you're thinking of virga, which happens much higher in the atmosphere.  Once you see a snowflake a few feet above the ground (let's say 6 feet- the normal height of a person) it doesn't have any room or time left to become virga, it will either hit the ground and accumulate or melt.  If it's only a few snow flakes you may never notice the "wetness" but that doesn't mean that it didn't hit the ground lol.

The idea of virga does bring up an interesting point though.  Is it possible for someone to witness snowflakes near the top of a skyscraper (like let's say the Empire State Building) that dry up before ever hitting the ground?  We know that snow can change to rain from that height, but can we also have virga from that height?

4 hours ago, Toekneeweather said:

No it isn’t you can’t record a trace of snow if there are twenty flurries that don’t even hit the ground. You actually need more like a snow shower, we already went through this

 

from national weather service 

Snow often melts as it lands. If snow continually melts as it lands, and the accumulation never reaches 0.1 inches on your measuring surface, snowfall should be recorded as a trace (T) and record in your remarks that the "snow melted as it landed

What I said is basically what's stated there lol.  Of course the snow flakes hit the ground, they just melt as they hit.  What you're talking about is virga and that only happens higher up in the atmosphere.

6 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I think we had about 20” in SE Nassau 

Here too, NYC came really close to breaking their all time monthly rainfall record but we ended up having a dry last 10 days to mess it up.  There was 2 feet of rain in eastern LI.

That was the month I had installed my digital rain gage too- what a start lol

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

While the CONUS has had numerous top 10 warmest months during the 2010's, I don't believe there has been a top 10 coldest yet. It will be interesting to see if November 2018 is the first with such extensive cold across the CONUS. The rankings will be out in December.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/national/rankings/110/tavg/201810

 

 

I thought last March and April were really cold nationwide too.

9 hours ago, bluewave said:

Finally a coldest month on record for a station in the US in a sea of top 10 warmth during the 2010's.

Record coldest November dating to 1888 a virtual lock in Kansas City, crushing the previous record from 1976, per data from @SERCC.pic.twitter.com/WOzPSws0S4

5:40 AM - 30 Nov 2018

Also their first 3+ inch snowstorm in a few years!

6 hours ago, Toekneeweather said:

Next weekend looks good for a big storm. The midweek system disappeared unfortunately. Radar looks good for quick hitting snow showers mixed with sleet and rain for the next 3 hours.

It might be better this way.  The midweek system being further offshore may allow the next weekend system to really amplify.

10 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. At least in the Bronx.

Yes even just flakes in the air is a trace of snow.

I didn't know why some misunderstood that, it's obviously not rain, whether anything sticks to the ground or not, it's still snow.

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Run-to-run continuity on the GFS concerning the storm for the following weekend remains poor.

So go with the Euro as usual, Don?

They have already started talking about a possible winter storm next weekend on our locals, specifically Ch 7 WABC.

5 hours ago, Ericjcrash said:

 

Euro has the classic Monmouth/Ocean County jackpot of 20" lmao

13 hours ago, gravitylover said:

I don't remember that summer being particularly warm or wet.  That was the summer before my senior year and we spent 4-5 days a week on the beach surfing, smoking and wasting time. It seems like most of Oceanside High School was doing the same My memory could be wrong though I guess.

We were close by I was at Lawrence No 1 school (4th grade at the time.)

1983 had the record for most 90 degree days prior to the 90s.

14 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

55.15" IMBY as of yesterday, which is second to 2011 which had 70.24" which actually had more since I didn't have my Stratus then so I wasn't getting accurate snow liquid equivalents.  

I remember the record year of 1983 which was amazing for being very hot and very rainy, we had over 80 inches total that year.

13 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

Nope.  It's incredible how we can't get wall to wall clear days anymore.

I hope it's clear for that big total eclipse coming up in January.

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

There's almost unanimous agreement that a warm-up will happen around that time frame. 

Mild periods are very common in Nino Decembers, the difference is how long and mild it'll become. Even 02 had several weeks of milder weather in December/January.

However before that happens, we could see two shots at snow. 

According to what I've been reading, it will basically be two weeks of warmth in the middle of December, which will be sandwiched by cold and snow chances at the beginning and end of the month.  I would sign up for that, not only in December, but all winter long.