LibertyBell

On 12/8/2018 at 4:35 PM, North and West said:

I know it’s banter (forgive me; our weather is quiet) but with Christmas just around the corner, I remember when I was 10 in 1992 (elder millennial... I have kids and own a home and live in the suburbs... so not a stereotypical one) and got the NOAA Weather Radio for Christmas from Radio Shack.

It was awesome. I finally got to supplement the 5-day business planner that I could only catch once a days.


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Looks like what you and I consider millenials actually started around circa 1995 birth year.  Those are the ones that grew up with smart phones and ipads.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/phones-tablets-and-their-impact-on-kids-brains-60-minutes/

https://www.cbsnews.com/videos/toddlers-need-laps-more-than-apps

https://www.cbsnews.com/videos/groundbreaking-study-examines-effects-of-screen-time-on-kids-60-minutes

https://www.cbsnews.com/videos/2017-what-is-brain-hacking-tech-insiders-on-why-you-should-care

https://www.cbs.com/shows/60_minutes/video/ssIdFncaAvDxXuvWKfMbTXvSl1zbceDm/elon-musk-screen-time-ryan-speedo-green

60 Minutes had an excellent piece tonight about brain changes in people born from 1995 onwards because of excessive usage of smart phones and ipads and how engineers have admitted that the big tech companies are specifically making apps and devices that would be addictive for children (even toddlers)- similar to fast food-, the NIH is currently conducting a long term study and the early results seem to bear this out.  MRI exams of kids using devices for 2 or more hours a day show changes in brain structure.  

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, last week of Dec is fair game.

Weird that some of the analogs we can use for Decembers like this where we had cold/dry during the first couple of weeks only to get nailed towards the end of the month are La Nina winters like December 2000 and December 2010.

I'm sure there are El Nino examples too.

14 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Thanks. This idea that rural living is healthier is hogwash. Regardless of the pros and cons of each, It’s all about what you make of it. 

No it's not, it even says in that article that it's less stressful.  And asthma rates are higher in cities thanks to all the extra vehicles (especially trucks) and when you look at longevity on a state by state basis, Colorado comes out on top.

This one is more recent (sorry Jer!).  It does sound like more of a mixed message though with each location being better in some ways.

http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20180531-where-are-the-worlds-healthiest-places-to-live

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169204611003665

http://www.ecehh.org/research-projects/urban-green-space/

Generally speaking, evidence suggests that green spaces are good for those of us who live in urban areas. Those who reside near parks or trees tend to enjoy lower levels of ambient air pollution, reduced manmade noise pollution and more cooling effects (something that will become increasingly useful as the planet warms).

Natural spaces are conducive to physical and social activities– both of which are associated with myriad benefits of their own.

Time in nature has been linked to reduced physical markers of stress. When we are out for a stroll or just sitting beneath the trees, our heart rate and blood pressure both tend to go down. We also release more natural ‘killer cells’: lymphocytes that roam throughout the body, hunting down cancerous and virus-infected cells.

Researchers are still trying to determine why this is so, although they do have a number of hypotheses. “One predominate theory is that natural spaces act as a calming backdrop to the busy stimuli of the city,” says Amber Pearson, a health geographer at Michigan State University. “From an evolutionary perspective, we also associate natural things as key resources for survival, so we favour them.” 

City residents tend to suffer from more asthma, allergies and depression – but they also tend to be less obese, at a lower suicide risk and are less likely to get killed in an accident

14 hours ago, weathafella said:

Maybe for you?  Not supported in a general statement 

 

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702304793504576434442652581806

But Stress Is Less in Rural Regions

^thats what I meant Jer

also sleep is much deeper with less light pollution and asthma rates are much higher in cities, especially with the trucks that constantly go through the streets.

Average longevity is the longest in Colorado I believe.

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

My best guess right now would be around the 23rd. This warm up right before the holidays seems to have become the norm over the years. Notice how NYC has reached 50 degrees or higher every year since 2011 from Dec 17-23. The only recent years this didn't happen were in 2009 and 2010 with the record breaking -AO pattern.

NYC high temperature Dec 17-23 since 2009:

2017....55

2016....58

2015....64

2014....54

2013....71

2012....56

2011....62

2010....38

2009....36

that would definitely fit the pattern and we would have two cutters to bookend it, the first cutter on the 15th to introduce the thaw and the second one around the 21st to end it.

Chris how long do you think this will last? Through Christmas or through New Years?

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Some thoughts going forward....pretty much as planned, but too bad this storm isn't working out.

Bad luck.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/12/deceptive-early-season-respite-november.html

Could be another backloaded winter (Jan 20 onwards) OR could be that winter gets going in the last week of December?

6 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Bostons OK, world class maybe, traffic sucks like any city, some nice Museums, nice shopping areas but like any city not for me.

I hear you about cities- they're stressful and not healthy.  My blood pressure goes down 30 pts and I sleep much better at night when I'm out in the country with no light pollution and fresh air.  Flagstaff AZ is supposed to be one of the healthiest cities in America.

Densely packing a bunch of humans into a small space isn't healthy for us or for the environment.

6 hours ago, weathafella said:

Walkable, good public transportation, best healthcare in the world, snowy considering its location.  Strong history, neighborhoods, growing diversity, unfortunately very expensive.

yep healthcare is super expensive too.  Best healthcare right now would probably be one of those European countries where you dont go bankrupt in the process.

15 hours ago, Snow88 said:

I remember in Dec 2010 we had a few near misses until Boxing Day 

Weird that the winters we are comparing this one to so far are la nina winters like 2000 and 2010 lol.

8 hours ago, North and West said:

I know it’s banter (forgive me; our weather is quiet) but with Christmas just around the corner, I remember when I was 10 in 1992 (elder millennial... I have kids and own a home and live in the suburbs... so not a stereotypical one) and got the NOAA Weather Radio for Christmas from Radio Shack.

It was awesome. I finally got to supplement the 5-day business planner that I could only catch once a days.


.

haha I got the NOAA weather radio around the same time, it was part of a multiband radio that also had the conventional AM/FM stuff.  I still have that in a closet somewhere, yours was a few years older than mine, which is from 1995.  A great time to get it because the first time I got to use my weather radio was the great winter of 1995-96!

13 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

It was so frustrating too because this was before internet and weather channel so I had no idea what went wrong just that it was snowing one minute then pouring rain, and I kept hoping it would change back but never did. I believe the low formed closer to the coast and caused the winds to turn to the E/SE instead of from the NE but I also have no idea who got snow and didn't. I do remember visiting family for Christmas down by philly and they had several inches of snow on the ground

There was basically just the radio if you wanted constant weather updates, so thats what I used.  I used to listen to both WCBS and WINS and sometimes WWOR.  There was a Long Island radio station with Joe Cioffi on it and he sometimes was on WWOR and he's really good- still comes on WPIX sometimes.

The only other thing I know of back then that was devoted to weather were the 15 min segments of AM Weather that were on PBS.

3 hours ago, uncle W said:

since the 1952-53 season el nino winters got less measurable snow events on average than neutral or la nina winters...

El Nino winters averaged 9.0 measurable snowfalls...two in 1997-98 is the least amount...1963-64 and 2014-15 had 16 for the most...15 of the 23 years had less than ten measurable snow events for the season...Neutral years averaged 11.05 events...2001-02 has the least with two...1966-67 has the most with 17...6 of the 20 winters had less than 10 events...la nina winters averaged 10.8 events...2011-12 has the least with three...1995-96 the most with 20...10 of the 23 years had less than 10 events...

it's weak el nino winters that are the culprit, they tend to be cold and dry.

1977-78 was an exception but only because it was a second year weak el nino and so behaved more like a moderate el nino.

Our biggest snowfalls happen in moderate and strong el ninos and also weak la ninas.

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Low of 18 at Islip with the radiational cooling. Not bad considering the record low is 15 degrees set in 1970.

I see the East Hampton HTO temps seem to be as cold or even a little colder than the Westhampton FOK temps this season.

15 minutes ago, BlizzardNYC said:

Agreed

The general idea was that the cold would come back around or right after Christmas though.

I wont complain if we get a Boxing Day repeat lol.

21 hours ago, wdrag said:

Will look at this again around midday the 16th and midday the 21st subsequent to possible events, and time permitting. 

Two big rainstorms predicted on those days Walt?

 I really would have loved to see this (but all snow of course):

4.43"...17.5"...02/04-07/1920...mid 20's to low 30's...snow/ice/sleet for over 72 hours...

Where is February 1961 on this list?  JFK had like 3" LE and 25" of snow.

JFK's number 1 for all snow is January 2016 with 3" LE and 31" of snow.  Snow depth reached 30 inches here with that storm.

On the above list it's number 2 for all snow, only behind Dec 1947 

Intriguing thing the storms at the bottom of your list all had nearly a 20:1 ratio!  Jan 2014 near the top of the list for ratios, along with Feb 1899 both are 2" above 20:1 ratios!.

1960....0.86".....15.2" Dec...

2009....0.74".....10.9" Dec...

1899....0.70".....16.0" Feb...

1916....0.59".....12.7" Dec...

1996....0.52".....10.7" Feb...

1905....0.51".....11.0" Jan...

1961....0.50"......9.9" Jan...

2014....0.48".....11.5" Jan...

9 hours ago, BlizzardNYC said:

Yup, and the one after this one too

One after this?  There's another flooding rainstorm coming after that one?

4 hours ago, Rjay said:

Had 18" here.  Awesome rates for a few hours in the evening.  Then one mega band over central Suffolk overnight.

It was a great start to the season, and probably the second best December snowstorm we've had (#1 was Boxing Day of course.)  I just really love day time snowstorms lol.

12 hours ago, Gravity Wave said:

December has been a dead month for big storms for a while. As long as the El Nino pattern sets up by the end of the month we'll have our chances.

Even our big winters with a couple of exceptions like 1995-96 and 2002-03 seem to be mostly concentrated in January-February.

14 hours ago, North and West said:

Eh, not that I have any science behind it (I don't), but we do tend to search for the negative reinforcements. I was just mentioning the other day, we'd be fretting if this was like 2015, with lots of warmth, and scant indication of a big January storm.

anyway, history can rhyme, but it doesn't always repeat itself.

Only real thing to fret about right now is all the money being spent on heating fuel and not getting the benefit of snow to ease the pain lol.

14 hours ago, mikem81 said:

Looks like a typical dry and cold and then wet and warm followed by dry and cold pattern...

This happened almost every year in the 80s outside of the extreme outliers like April 1982 or February 1983.

I remember TV Mets at the time explained it as the NYC metro being in an unfavorable area for snowfall.  We're too tucked in to benefit from Miller B's, too far north to benefit from when Arctic air comes down and suppresses the storm track and too far south for clippers lol.  So basically at the time they said NYC was in between the predominant storm tracks and that was why back then both DC and Boston were getting more snow than us lol.

16 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

The 12/15/89 storm screwed us as well. Temps in the 20s and 4 -8" expected and turned into a driving rainstorm at the coast followed by bitter arctic air for 2 weeks but just occasional snow showers to briefly whiten the ground

I vividly remember that- I wonder what went wrong?  The prediction of 6-8 inches of snow was being given by Craig Allen right up to when the storm started, as snow, and then there was a flash of lightning and it changed to rain!

The other big bust from that era had occurred the previous winter- 6-8 inches was predicted and we got 6-8 inches of virga in February 1989.  It looked like it was going to snow all day and nothing fell.

20 hours ago, bluewave said:

This MJO 3-5 passage looks like it will be impressive for all of North America. It's the strongest +EPO pattern since at least last summer and will  produce with our mid-December thaw pattern here. 

 

Question is how long will the thaw last before we get back to a cold and stormy (rather than dry) pattern.

20 hours ago, ForestHillWx said:

There's something special about our southern friends getting multiple years worth of snow in one shot, that I find impressive. 

Sadly, they are ill prepared for 1/10th of what is projected to fall. Hopefully it warms up quickly for them. 

Most of the snow is going to occur in the mountains though, those regions are well-acquainted with snow (like Boone and Asheville).  Coastal regions will get nothing.