LibertyBell

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, that’s why NYC was often the warmest spot in the 60s and 70s with no trees covering the equipment. Can you imagine how many high temperature records would have been broken since 1990 if the site was properly maintained? Sometimes you have to laugh when tuning into the local NYC TV and radio weather reports. The usual story is how NYC just missed a heatwave with a high of only 88° or 89° degrees. Then report ends with but they got the heatwave at EWR or LGA. So it gives the impression that Manhattan is a great spot beat the summer heat.

Why cant they just move the equipment to the Sheep Meadow?

1 minute ago, uncle W said:

Nuclear bomb testing in the 1950's charged the atmosphere and caused changes in weather patterns thousands of miles from the test sites. - Reeko's Mad Scientist Lab (reekoscience.com)

wow we got the opposite of nuclear winter, we had a nuclear late summer and early fall!  I think hydrogen fusion bombs were being tested by then too

I had to laugh when he said LGA may be several degrees cooler than Central Park in the summer lol; my, how times have changed!

See, they've relocated the instruments before and can do so again.

They need to stop this religious adherence to Central Park.

It's beautiful but I'd be annoyed that you missed 3 feet of snow, a yard stick of snow by 0.1 inch!  They better have rechecked that total

What was the liquid equivalent of all that snow?

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

JFK has seen a similar rise in JJA temperatures as the other stations. You can see the big giveaway that the NYC ASOS went from the sun to deep shade. Notice how the average minimum JJA temperature rose in line with the other stations since 1951-1980. But the average high from 1951-1980 to 2011-2020 is virtually unchanged. 

JJA 1950-1981 to 2011-2020 temperature change

NYC

max….83.0…83.2….+0.2

min…..66.0…68.2….+2.2

EWR

max…83.4…85.3…..+1.9

min….65.8….67.8…..+2.0

LGA

max…82.0….84.4…..+2.4

min….66.8….69.9…..+3.1

JFK

max….80.5….82.5…..+2.0

min…..65.4….67.7……+2.3

 

 

Conversely looks like LGA rose more than the other stations, is that because of more urbanization?  I always see a spike in my car thermometer when I drive through there, even more than in Manhattan or New Jersey for that matter.

35 minutes ago, uncle W said:

A bomb testing...

I was thinking that amazingly hot summer in 1908 might be because of the Tunguska event lol.

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

JFK has seen a similar rise in JJA temperatures as the other stations. You can see the big giveaway that the NYC ASOS went from the sun to deep shade. Notice how the average minimum JJA temperature rose in line with the other stations since 1951-1980. But the average high from 1951-1980 to 2011-2020 is virtually unchanged. 

JJA 1950-1981 to 2011-2020 temperature change

NYC

max….83.0…83.2….+0.2

min…..66.0…68.2….+2.2

EWR

max…83.4…85.3…..+1.9

min….65.8….67.8…..+2.0

LGA

max…82.0….84.4…..+2.4

min….66.8….69.9…..+3.1

JFK

max….80.5….82.5…..+2.0

min…..65.4….67.7……+2.3

 

 

Wow my post disappeared lol, Take two.....

What about 90 degree highs at JFK?

The only two record holders I know of are 2010 and 1983 before that.

1983 was an amazing year when you think about it, the only 20 inch snowstorm of the decade here, the wettest year on record by a mile with 80 inches of rain and the hottest and most humid summer on record up to that point.

1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

Of the 2010, 99, 88, 77, 66, 55, 44, 33, 22,11 batch 2021 so far on the lower side after a strong start in June early July, culd make a comeback in Aug/Sep.  EWR could get to 35(+) 90 degree days and other spots could get closer to 25-30.  We'll see no strong / sustained heat (95+) the next 7 - 10 days, even though some warmer spots may grab a 95 this coming week.

Sounds very 1953-like.  What happened so late in the season to make it so hot that year?

16 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Schlacter: "I think New Yorkers deserve a lot better, and I think they
deserve the best weather station money can buy."

 

It is funny: airports, skyscrapers, convention centers, roads, hotels, trains, skyscrapers…just about every category you can think of that involves a physical structure is bigger, better, and nicer elsewhere.

 

Why would he think NYers deserve the best weather station.

Just living in NY involves accepting sub par on just about everything…including, apparently, the CPK weather station

NY has too many skyscrapers already.  These new rectangular shaped monstrosities are disgusting, built by the rich for the rich.

1 hour ago, rclab said:

Good morning BW. Unless I misinterpreted him, the Conservancy director will take action on an NWS recommendation for ASOS flora maintenance.after an ASOS assessment. Do any of our forum regular or red tag members have a contact within the NWS? Has the NWS ever done an ASOS evaluation since it’s activation? Is forkys solution the only viable one, move the ASOS? As always …..

I dont understand why it's so difficult to get these people to chop off some vegetation.  Otherwise just move the equipment to the Sheep Meadow.  Neither should be a big deal.

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

2011-2020 had the most 90° days. You can see how the tree growth over the equipment in Central Park has held the 90°days down relative to EWR and LGA. This was the first decade that any of our stations averaged 30° days reaching 90° a year.

#90° days

1951-1960…..EWR…25….NYC…18….LGA….19

1961-1970…..EWR…22….NYC…20…LGA….14

1971-1980….EWR….21…..NYC…18….LGA….12

1981-1990….EWR…26…..NYC…18….LGA….15

1991-2000…EWR…28…..NYC….19….LGA….19

2001-2010…EWR…27……NYC….15….LGA….23

2011-2020….EWR…30…..NYC….18….LGA….24

 

1951-1980….EWR…23……NYC…18...LGA…15

2011-2020...EWR…30…….NYC…18…LGA…24

…………………EWR….+7…….NYC…0….LGA…+9

But what about for JFK?  If they are #1 during the 2010s it's because of how hot the early part of the period was (2010-2013).

Inland locations are definitely getting hotter.

40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

As of 2003, the NWS seemed resigned to the issue.

 

Central Park Weather: Vegetative Overgrowth Affecting Weather Readings - WABC-TV

(New York-WABC, August 22, 2003) - Forecasting the weather is not easy.
Government equipment can often be blamed for giving faulty weather
information. As Bill Evans explains, a big culprit may be some of the
equipment buried in Central Park.

Rainfall, snowfall, and the temperature are all vital information
recorded 24 hours a day at the weather station located in the heart of
Central Park.

But meteorologists like Michael Schlacter have serious concerns about the
accuracy of the stations data. It sits amid overgrown vegetation and he
says thats the problem. The leaves can trigger snow gauges and trees can
warp rain and wind measurements. On this hot day, a temperature gauge is
in the shade instead of direct sunlight.

Michael Schlacter, Weather 2000: "Its kind of like driving a car
without a speedometer, odometer, and gas gauge. You are running with
false information."

The weather instruments at Belvedere Castle have long adorned the top.
There used to be a government meteorologist here in the city to keep an
eye on them. But now the nearest meteorologist is 60 miles that way.

But National Weather Service meteorologists say they knew the weather
readings in the park would never be as keenly accurate as the ones at
the airports where guidelines prevent foliage from being within 100 feet
of the station.

Schlacter: "We knew that at times we would have flaky readings, that
leaves would fall in gauges, that we would have problems with
visibility sensors."

[NWS Meteorologist-in-Charge Michael] Wyllie says the weather station is
there because it was historically significant to maintain its presence
in the park.

He says theres been a lot of growth because of the wet spring at so much
in fact that temperatures have routinely been recorded lower in the park
than at the airports.

Wyllie: "We are actually having a micro climate system there because of
the vegetation."

Imperfect perhaps but nonetheless the system provides the official record
of weather for the country's largest city. And Michael Schlacter says
its a city that deserves better.

Schlacter: "I think New Yorkers deserve a lot better, and I think they
deserve the best weather station money can buy."


Copyright 2003 ABC Inc., WABC-TV Inc.

Why cant the NWS hire someone to clear the brush if the Park Conservancy wont do it?  And did the Park Conservancy give a reason as to why they wont do it?

Also why not relocate the equipment to the Sheep Meadow?  The equipment has been relocated before within the Park hasn't it?

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The risk of crop failures would be too high.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/aug/08/reflecting-suns-rays-would-cause-crops-to-fail-scientists-warn

Proposals to combat climate change by reflecting the sun’s rays back into space would cause widespread crop failure, cancelling out any benefits to farming from the reduction in warming, according to new research.

 

Would these cloud seeding processes we've now seen being implemented in 8 states and some countries like the UAE help?

On 7/21/2021 at 5:22 PM, jm1220 said:

Hail incoming to JFK Airport from the looks of it.

power went out here during that for 30 minutes

@$E%^&

On 7/21/2021 at 12:41 PM, psv88 said:

Maybe for you?

damn power went out here for 30 minutes

On 6/28/2021 at 12:38 PM, acoolerclimate said:

Hello, I live in Nutley, NJ, which is about 8 miles north of Newark Airport. I have a TempestWX weather station. I compared my 90 degree days this year to Newark's. I've had 9. I missed two of Newark's 90 days in May, and 2 in June. Usually I'm only a degree or 2 colder than Newark, but occasionally I'm 1 degree warmer. Most of the differences of those 4 were Newark was 90 or 91 and I was 88 or 89. But one day does stand out. May 22nd was 96 in Newark, but I was only 89. I don't have any other temp days with that big a difference. Something happened that day. 

 

Newark had a hot flash that day

9 hours ago, Rjay said:

I have so much to say but I'm just gonna zip it.  

Just saw a thing on artificial rain in the UAE, they are seeding clouds to produce rain there to reduce the intensity of heatwaves.  The reporter said that 8 states in the West are also using cloud seeding to alleviate the long term drought there.

20 hours ago, bluewave said:

The only relationship that I can see between those summers was the timing of the ENSO. The hottest of those Julys were La Niña. Either El Niño winter to La Niña summer or a continuation of La Niña. But the last several winters haven’t matched the expected patterns for the ENSO with coupling issues. It’s interesting that last July was the hottest on record at LGA and a top 10 warmest at Central Park. Also notice that the Julys since the 1990s would be warmer if it wasn’t for the canopy of trees cooling the sensor below.

The summers that you highlighted bolded plus the hot 2020 July

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	ENSO
1	1999	81.4	La Niña to La Niña
2	2010	81.3	El Nino to La Nina
3	1955	80.8	La Niña to La Niña
4	1952	80.3
5	2011	80.2
6	1993	80.1
7	2020	80.0
-	1908	80.0
8	2013	79.8
9	1966	79.7	El Niño to La Niña
10	2019	79.6
-	1949	79.6
11	1983	79.5
12	1994	79.4
-	1944	79.4
13	1988	79.3	El Niño  to La Niña
-	1980	79.3	0
14	1876	79.2	0
15	1995	79.1	0
-	1887	79.1	0
16	1977	79.0	Weak El Niño

 

1980 was amazing, it was already very hot in July and August got even hotter and averaged close to 81 wow.....

20 hours ago, bluewave said:

The only relationship that I can see between those summers was the timing of the ENSO. The hottest of those Julys were La Niña. Either El Niño winter to La Niña summer or a continuation of La Niña. But the last several winters haven’t matched the expected patterns for the ENSO with coupling issues. It’s interesting that last July was the hottest on record at LGA and a top 10 warmest at Central Park. Also notice that the Julys since the 1990s would be warmer if it wasn’t for the canopy of trees cooling the sensor below.

The summers that you highlighted bolded plus the hot 2020 July

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	ENSO
1	1999	81.4	La Niña to La Niña
2	2010	81.3	El Nino to La Nina
3	1955	80.8	La Niña to La Niña
4	1952	80.3
5	2011	80.2
6	1993	80.1
7	2020	80.0
-	1908	80.0
8	2013	79.8
9	1966	79.7	El Niño to La Niña
10	2019	79.6
-	1949	79.6
11	1983	79.5
12	1994	79.4
-	1944	79.4
13	1988	79.3	El Niño  to La Niña
-	1980	79.3	0
14	1876	79.2	0
15	1995	79.1	0
-	1887	79.1	0
16	1977	79.0	Weak El Niño

 

Thanks, do you have a number of 90 degree day and number of 100 degree day info for those too?

The top three are part of the 11 yr cycle which is highly impressive.

I'll give you a list of my top summers and can you find out if all of those are la ninas too?  We've been in a la nina pattern haven't we?  So why isn't this summer very hot too?

Here's my list of extremely hot summers I've experienced.

1977, 1980, 1983, 1991, 1993, 1995, 1999, 2002, 2010.  See how many of them are in the 90s

19 hours ago, bluewave said:

The only relationship that I can see between those summers was the timing of the ENSO. The hottest of those Julys were La Niña. Either El Niño winter to La Niña summer or a continuation of La Niña. But the last several winters haven’t matched the expected patterns for the ENSO with coupling issues. It’s interesting that last July was the hottest on record at LGA and a top 10 warmest at Central Park. Also notice that the Julys since the 1990s would be warmer if it wasn’t for the canopy of trees cooling the sensor below.

The summers that you highlighted bolded plus the hot 2020 July

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	ENSO
1	1999	81.4	La Niña to La Niña
2	2010	81.3	El Nino to La Nina
3	1955	80.8	La Niña to La Niña
4	1952	80.3
5	2011	80.2
6	1993	80.1
7	2020	80.0
-	1908	80.0
8	2013	79.8
9	1966	79.7	El Niño to La Niña
10	2019	79.6
-	1949	79.6
11	1983	79.5
12	1994	79.4
-	1944	79.4
13	1988	79.3	El Niño  to La Niña
-	1980	79.3	0
14	1876	79.2	0
15	1995	79.1	0
-	1887	79.1	0
16	1977	79.0	Weak El Niño

 

Going by number of 90 degree highs, the decade of the 1990s dwarfs everything else.  Also 2010 is still the summer of record going by number of 90 degree and 100 degree days.

15 hours ago, forkyfork said:

there's no 11 year cycle lol

11 yr sunspot cycle

https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/sun-space-weather/sunspot-cycle#:~:text=The 11-year sunspot cycle,northern and southern hemispheres switch.

14 hours ago, bluewave said:

Everything has felt a bit early this year. We got the big snowstorm in February before the -5 AO drop instead of after. The AO reversal in February was faster than we typically see with such a strong -AO winter. June featured record heat which we typically experience in July. Then July had an early tropical storm with record monthly rainfall. In the past, the deluge or a tropical system after 100°heat happened much later.

 

 

 

 

isnt this a 1950s pattern with all the TC and June heat?

We said this last year too

10 hours ago, uncle W said:

two myths killed this Summer so far...11 year hot summer cycle and the 17 year Cicada bug cycle...

the 11 yr summer is happening out west and the cicadas are down south lol

On 7/20/2021 at 3:32 PM, csnavywx said:

Yeah, that's almost a complete shutout of ECS <= 2C by their calculations. While the mean looks to be around 3.2, that PDF is .... not great. Anything under 2.5 is pretty unlikely and pretty decent probs of something closer to 4.

From what I'm gathering, that's also just from the observational record. Paleo suggests ECS itself might be variable depending on the state (higher during warmer climates for instance). https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/9/eaax1874

Having said all of that -- I'm also wondering if the laser-like focus on ECS is a bit troublesome in itself. It's possible, for instance, that we're focusing a bit too hard on global temps and not enough on downstream effects -- like asymmetric hemispheric response. All evidence points towards the NH losing ice much faster than the SH and indeed paleoclimate tends to suggest that the NH and SH can exist in a "decoupled" state where most of Antarctica can still be relatively cold and glaciated and the NH is essentially much closer to something resembling a greenhouse climate. The GIS will still be around for quite a long time but the amount of resistance it can put up pales in comparison to the combination that the circumpolar current and EAIS can put up. It's worth noting that Antarctica glaciated pretty early on (30-40mya at around 650 ppm I think?). I'm sure the isolating power of the circumpolar current helped, but if folks like Tierney are right, that doesn't have as much of an effect as one might initially think.

 

The differences between the Arctic and the Antarctic are basically because the Arctic has a large quantity of water near the NP while the Antarctic is a continent surrounding the SP correct?