LibertyBell

18 hours ago, North and West said:

Honestly, not that I'm a fan of it from an excitement level, but it seems like we haven't had weather like this in a while; sustained cold and dry. I remember my dad mentioning that it was like this in 1976-1977; not sure if anyone can confirm those recollections.

I think it's good, too, from the aspect of allowing low-lying, flood-prone areas to dry out, and to help manage insect populations. 

Not exciting, but it's life.

Ask him about November-December 1989 thats what this reminds me of.

11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

More on the debate over 1983 precipitation for NYC... (recently discussed by a number of us including @bluewave and @uncle W)

After the initial values had been left undecided, there was a subsequent review in which it was decided to accept them.

The explanation I was sent in an e-mail that concerned this issue is as follows:

It was decided after that call [a teleconference concerning the issue] to accept the values as initially reported based on some additional data quality analysis and comparisons conducted with surrounding stations based on trends over many years before and since 1983.

In sum, the 1983 figure of 80.56" is the official record.

I remember that year as amazingly wet and even if the 80" figure is off, it was definitely above 70"

16 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Act 1 winter 2018-19 will conclude after this weekend's major Lower Middle Atlantic/Southeast snowstorm. The scenario painted by the return of a generally positive EPO and periodically positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) has shown up for some time on the ensembles.

A look at where we have been is helpful.

Scene 1 saw a historic November snowstorm in parts of the East. Cities such as Newark and New York had their biggest ever snowfall so early in the season.

Heavy snow blankets the New York City area (November 15)

Scene 2 featured an exceptional Arctic blast for Thanksgiving Day and the day after.

Central Park's 15° temperature was New York City's lowest November temperature since the mercury fell to 12° on November 27, 1932.

Select record-breaking and record-tying low temperatures for November 22:
Albany: 8° (old record: 9°, 1969)
Allentown: 14° (old record: 15°, 2014)
Bangor: 5° (old record: 11°, 1978)
Binghamton: 3° (old record: 10°, 1989) ***Tied November Record set on 11/30/1976***
Bridgeport: 16° (old record: 18°, 1987) ***Tied November Record set on 11/28/1951 and tied on 11/23/1972***
Hartford: 9° (old record: 14°, 1969)
Islip: 18° (old record: 20°, 1987)
Manchester: 9° (old record: 12°, 1969)
Mount Washington: -26° (old record: -11° set in 1969 and tied in 1987) ***Broke November Record (old monthly record: -20°, 11/30/1958)***
New York City-JFK: 18° (old record: 20°, 1987) ***Broke November Record (old monthly record: 19°, set on 11/30/1976 and tied on 11/21/1987)***
New York City-LGA: 19° (old record: 21°, 1987)
Newark: 17° (old record: 19°, 1987)
Portland: 6° (old record: 11°, 1888)
Poughkeepsie: 10° (old record: 14° set in 1972 and tied in 1984)
Providence: 15° (old record: 16° set in 1969 and tied in 1987)
Saranac Lake: -19° (old record: -2° set in 1972 and tied in 1987) ***Broke November Record (Old monthly record: -14°, set 11/26/1938 and tied on 11/28/1951)***
Scranton: 9° (old record: 15° set in 1969 and tied in 1987 and 2014)
Worcester: 7° (old record: 11°, 1987)

Record-breaking and record-tying low temperatures for November 23:
Albany: 4° (old record: 5°, 1972)
Allentown: 11° (old record: 16°, 1964 and 2000)
Binghamton: 0° (old record: 12°, 1989 and 2008) ***Broke November Record (old record: 3°, set on 11/30/1976 and tied on 11/22/2018)***
Bridgeport: 13° (old record: 16°, 1972) ***Broke November Record (old record: 16°, set on 11/28/1951 and tied on 11/23/1972 and 11/22/2018)***
Burlington: -1° (old record: 2°, 1888 and 1972)
Hartford: 5° (old record: 12°, 1972)
Mount Washington: -13° (tied record set in 1994)
New York City-JFK: 15° (old record: 25°, set in 1949 and tied in 1964, 1972, 2000, and 2008) ***Broke November Record (old record: 18°, 11/22/2018)***
New York City-LGA: 17° (old record: 23°, 1972) ***Tied November Record set on 11/29/1955***
Newark: 13° (old record: 21°, 1932)
Portland: 4° (old record: 7°, 1888 and 1978)
Poughkeepsie: 6° (old record: 9°, 1989)
Providence: 13° (old record: 14°, 1972)
Saranac Lake: -17° (old record: -11°, 1932)
Scranton: 5° (old record: 13°, 1972) ***Broke November Record (old record: 6°, set 11/29/1929 and tied on 11/26/1938)
Trenton: 13° (old record: 16°, 1880)
Westhampton: 6° (old record: 14°, 1964 and 2000) ***Broke November Record (old record: 9°, 11/24/2000)***
Worcester: 7° (old record: 9°, 1929, 1972, and 1989)

Scene 3 featured a blizzard on November 25-26 that brought heavy snow from Kansas to the Great Lakes Region. That storm dumped 8.4" snow at Chicago and 11.7" at Rockford.

Scene 4 saw an inverted trough bring a localized 3"-6" snowfall (with some higher amounts) to a portion of New Jersey, including Atlantic City where 4.8" fell.

Scene 5 will star a major early December Lower Mid-Atlantic/Southeast snowstorm.

There had been a window of opportunity during the first two weeks of December. By the time that period ends, Scenes 4 and 5 will have been put into the weather records books.

That the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions will very likely miss out given the 500 mb pattern (which, in this case provided above normal lead time for the area at greatest risk of significant snow) does not mean that the potential did not exist. It did.

Act 2, courtesy of the onset of a positive EPO, variable Arctic Oscillation (including positive values), and the MJO's move into milder phases will be defined by a pause. Typically, such pauses last 2 and sometimes 3 weeks. Unlike some recent Decembers, it does not appear that this pause will see exceptional warmth. It will likely see above normal readings in the means.

Act 2 is not the closing Act of December, much less winter. Unlike such "non-winters" as 2011-12, the SSTAs in the Pacific favor a negative EPO. Those SSTAs are remarkably similar to those that were present during winter 2002-03. During that winter, the EPO went positive and remained predominantly positive into the first week of January. Afterward, it went negative and was largely negative through the remainder of what proved to be a very snowy meteorological winter.

Already, some of the guidance suggests an end to the positive EPO that will likely develop in coming days. Whether the EPO will go negative toward the end of the December or start of January remains to be seen, as there remains uncertainty concerning the timing of such an evolution.

Nevertheless, my guess has been and remains that the last week of December could feature a growing risk of wintry weather. First, the trough will begin to redevelop. The weekly guidance strongly suggests the development of a sustained trough in the East in the longer-term. As that happens, colder air will return and opportunities for snow will increase. The last week of December could be volatile as the pattern evolves toward a stable colder pattern--the kind of pattern that defined such winters as 1977-78, 2002-03, and 2009-10.

During that last week of December, I believe it is more likely than not that New York City will see accumulating snow. Waiting might be challenging, but I believe the patience will be rewarded so to speak. At present, there remains no meaningful indication that the promising start to Winter 2018-19 will end in heartbreak.

Overall, things remain on track for a very widespread winter with cold anomalies and greater than normal snowfall. The coming pause does not change things. It is part of a larger transition that will see the winter increasingly gain the attributes one has seen in past Central Pacific-based El Niño winters during which both Atlantic and Pacific blocking predominated.

Some temp records to add:

all of these cities saw their coldest November temperatures on record, earliest below zero temps, first time below zero temps occurred in November

Monticello -3

Mt Pocono -2

Syracuse -1

Sucks that Binghamton only got to 0, but 0 should be considered in the same category as the above, as it's not a single "digit."

Most of the above cities had their earliest negative temperature by about two weeks!  The deep snowcover helped attain that.

18 hours ago, North and West said:

Honestly, not that I'm a fan of it from an excitement level, but it seems like we haven't had weather like this in a while; sustained cold and dry. I remember my dad mentioning that it was like this in 1976-1977; not sure if anyone can confirm those recollections.

I think it's good, too, from the aspect of allowing low-lying, flood-prone areas to dry out, and to help manage insect populations. 

Not exciting, but it's life.

Yeah we really need a long break from the wet pattern, it's been really hard to rake leaves and do fall planting stuff with all this abnormal rainfall going on.

19 hours ago, bluewave said:

Thanks, it looks like we'll see our driest stretch in a while with this current more suppressed pattern. But the ensembles are indicating a relaxation of this suppression around mid-December with a possible rain and wind maker. Cold and dry has been one of our rarest combinations recently. 

Longer term, we always seem to find a way to to end up with above normal snow during this decade. But the way we get there could be unusual like it often is each year.

Looks like the weekend after this one will be pretty mild, 50s possible?  Next chance of snow and cold coming between Christmas and New Years?

18 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, that was our historic 50 degree +13 December. We still got one of my all-time favorite snowstorms a month later. Followed by the first below 0 in NYC since 1994 in February. 

That was my favorite snowstorm of all time on many levels, intensity, duration, jackpot which rarely happens for us lol.  First jackpot since PD2!.  This area has been in the jackpot only three times in my life, Feb 1983, PD2 and Jan 2016- and not coincidentally all were moderate or strong el ninos!

Finally no one can ever say that the Feb 1983 event was a fluke snowstorm and that you dont get such strong snowstorms in historic level el ninos- because it happened again with an even stronger el nino in Jan 2016 lol.

14 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

December 2000 wasn’t much different.  Suppression and dry til the very end.  I don’t see this month resembling 89 or 2000 temp wise though or even 09.  It’ll probably be much closer to 2002 temp wise

Something thats really interesting is that NYC even with their 150+ year period of record has never had 6 inch snowfalls in both November and December.

How do you feel about comparing this month to December 2010?

4 hours ago, Rjay said:

Hmm I got crushed.

Upton really got crushed.

It was 15 inches here but the main problem I had with it was that it occurred mostly late at night, the previous day we were waiting for the snow to get here and it was delayed and started late at night and by the time I woke up it was already gone.  Parts of Suffolk County got close to 30 inches so about double what we got, then again the City got about 8 inches, which was half of what we got lol.

9 hours ago, bluewave said:

Record snow cover for North America in November.

 

Looks like we picked up right where we left off last March and April

15 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Would be weird to have a cold and dry/snowless December

Dec 1989 lol- came after a snowy Thanksgiving too

6 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Starting to remind me of Dec 2000. Cold and dry them we get slammed late month. 

Yeah that was the other winter I was thinking of.  Dec 2010 came to mind first though.

6 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

December 30th, 2000.  To this date the heaviest snowfall rates I ever witnessed on the south shore in Nassau.    Didn't keep up that intensity for more than 30-45 minutes, but still, nothing has come close, which is saying something considering all storms we've had since then.

Jan 2016 dwarfed all previous storms, though Dec 2000 was really nice too.

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Oh they'll probably be a storm, just not the one you're hoping for if the Euro is any indication. 

That's a very hostile to snow pattern that'll be setting up. It wouldn't surprise me if we didn't see snow till after the new year though last 10 days of December hold some promise. 

It might be more like December 2010 where it was cold but we just missed out on snow a few times before we got the big one in the last week of December.

14 hours ago, Gravity Wave said:

I remember the December 19-20 2009 storm, every model was consistently suppressing it up. DC was on the fringe and no one north of there was going to see anything significant. This was after 3 straight garbage winters for the MA so hope was low to begin with. Then the 18z NAM on the 17th showed a full fledged I-95 blizzard (it ended up being too generous with the northern extent of the heavy snow, much to my disappointment in Allentown) and every other model flipped on their next runs. It's up there with BDB as the most remarkable short term shift I've experienced for a major winter storm.

To be clear, I was too young to understand the 500mb setup for that storm and I'm not making any predictions.

That storm was best over Suffolk County, it was a bit of a disappointment west of there and since the whole storm occurred over a short time, mostly at night, I never saw a single flake lol.

15 hours ago, RU848789 said:

Looks like most of Atlantic County is getting hammered, including AC.  Decent snows for far SE Burlington and the southern tip of Ocean and radar trends make it look like the precip shield is trying to move north.  We'll see.  I don't recall being under an inverted trough ever or at least not in the last 25-30 years in Middlesex County.  Anyone in the NB/Edison area recall a decent IT event?  

I've never had one up here in SW Nassau County nor do I remember the city ever getting one either.  They just aren't favored here, they either happen well to our south like over Southern NJ or north of us in Southern New England.  I think the shape of the coastline may have something to do with that.

I remember a big one in Feb 2008 where SNJ and Philly got like 8 inches of snow.   This one also dumped 8 inches in SNJ

3 hours ago, Mitchel Volk said:

Just look at Dec 1989

I have been thinking that for awhile too especially for the November-December couplet.

4 hours ago, weathafella said:

People give up because for some the emotional attachment is too much to endure.

The logical thing to do is to not be beholden into any one solution until within 3 days.  I think some choose not to really pay attention until within that time frame because the models just aren't very accurate in data sparse regions or for those long lead times.

10 minutes ago, doncat said:

I had 73.55" in 2011...In one 30 day period from approx 8/5- 9/5 , I measured over 25". Don't think I'll ever see so much rain in that period of time again.

I bet you'll get 80"+ rainfall in a year and 30"+ in 30 days sometime within the next 20-30 years lol.

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

2011 was #1 at LGA and EWR. It could also be the actual wettest in  NYC with the 1983 number in doubt.

EWR...#1...69.91

LGA....#1...65.34

NYC...........72.81

And for JFK it's close to a tie for the top spot isn't it, between 1983 and 2011?

Just now, bluewave said:

It looks like the 59-65" range was typical around NYC in 1983.

EWR...65.50"

LGA....60.84"

JFK.....59.12"

Based on that 2011 should be slightly more, thanks Chris, what were the numbers for the surrounding stations in 2011?

9 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I was thinking mid-70s. The NCDC has access to a lot of additional data and the ability to examine the suspect rain gauge. In the end, it appears that the final 1983 figure was retained.

Don, I think also psychologically, 80" just seems like a much larger figure than 72" even though there's only a 10% difference.

Either way, I would be willing to bet that in our new climate regime we will surpass 80" of annual rainfall sometime within the next 20-30 years or so.  I'd give it to 2050 at the latest.

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

The highest total that I could find for the 5 boroughs Of NYC in 1983 was 65.00 at AVE V in Brooklyn.

https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/

Time Series Summary for NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN, NY - Jan through Dec

1

1983

65.00

0

With rainfall we always seem to have a lot of variability.  I think Westchester was up in the mid 70s range, where was Newark at?  

JFK has never had a year with more than 60" of rain.

8 hours ago, uncle W said:

I met my wife in 1983 and our first date was in late August...There was a thunder storm that set a record rainfall for the date...In July Diana Ross got drenched in Central Park during a heavy thunder storm...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rXWDwVY-270

that was one of our hottest summers on record also, crazy to have it that hot and that wet

18 hours ago, bluewave said:

The only weather events that I can remember from 1983 were the Feb snowstorm, spring flash floods, and summer heat. Plenty of basement flooding in Long Beach during that spring deluge. 

Top wettest years at JFK

#1....59.12....1983

#2...57.18.....1975

#3...55.78.....2011

#4...55.73.....1989

#5...53.22.....1984

#6...51.57.....2018

Yes, 1983 held all our 90+ degree heat records before the 90s came along.  I think the extreme heat lasted well into September, I recall it being in the upper 90s into mid September and mid 90s in late September!

17 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

1983 was exceptionally wet. A local maximum might have existed in a small area running from near Central Park into lower Westchester County.

Upon final review, the decision to leave the 1983 record intact could well have been based on a combination of radar (albeit limited compared to today's), local sites, and statistical analysis. The issue with the rain gauge may have been re-examined and found insignificant.

The 1983 figure is 4.3σ above the historic mean annual precipitation (1869-2017) and 0.9σ above the 2011 figure of 72.81". I looked for other sites with similar or greater statistical differences. Currently, Wilmington, NC's 2018 figure of 95.82" is is 4.5σ above the historic mean annual precipitation (1871-2017) and 1.3σ above the second highest figure (83.65", 1877). The most extreme statistical difference that I found (and my search was not all-inclusive) was at Nashua (2 NNW). There, the 2008 record of 82.19" is  4.9σ above the historic mean annual precipitation (1886-2017) and 2.2σ above the second highest figure (60.64", 2011). Therefore, in the larger context of precipitation records, New York City's 1983 amount is not unprecedented when it comes to statistical comparisons.

 

Nevertheless, it's still plausible that the 1983 figure was somewhat lower than the 80.56" amount that was recorded. However, after having looked for similar or greater statistical outliers, my confidence in the 1983 figure is greater than it was yesterday prior to that examination. Overall, I have confidence in the judgment made by the National Climatic Data Center.

 

Thanks Don, for the rigorous analysis!  I thought the 80" might have been slightly above what it should have been,but based on nearby reports, I thought the actual number should still have been higher than 70"  So somewhere between the 2011 number and the 80" figure is probably a safe bet.