LibertyBell

root for the SE Ridge, it usually ends up stronger than modeled. Maybe those warm SST will work out in our favor this time.

Nothing to a snowstorm the only one I can remember recently is the renowned Boxing Day Blizzard December 2010

wow one of those days I think it was 1/4/1918 two inches of snow fell and the split was 8/-6 lmao.....2 inches of snow with 0.12" liquid, I'd think the ratios should have been like 100:1 Impressive that season had multiple arctic outbreaks with temps lower than -5 and one of them had 3 straight days with highs in the single digits and lows -6 or colder.

so actually these storms being weaker played in our favor

wow thanks that 12/30/1917 day impresses me a lot more than 2/9/1934! We were that close to staying below zero all day! Do you have any snowfall measurements listed for the days of any of these extreme outbreaks? Maybe one of these recorded the coldest temperature in NYC with snow falling?

Chris, do you think if a duplicate of the Dec 1992 noreaster had happened this season it would have been a big snow event for us? Because the track was astonishingly similar.

Wait what happened, in the March 2021 thread I saw a map posted that had 1 to 2 ft of snow on it. That was from like 12 hours ago?

Well this looks like a happy medium between the cutter/hugger scenarios and the OTS scenarios. Would like to see it about 50-100 miles closer and stop there.

This March 6th period has history on its side both ways.....historic hits and historic busts.....

I wonder if cod taste better when they are stuffed with snow?

The last threat of the season can be as late as the third week of April and is typically in the third week of March.

Allentown did too I think, #7? That list is interesting, 1995-96 ended up #1 by a wide margin and 2002-03 ended up being much better than this snow season was, by virtue of the largest event being much larger and also getting a major event in April.

wow 2017-18 was wild, I didn't realize it was that cold....of course 100 years before that takes the cake lol, 1917-18 was much colder than the much ballyhooed 1933-34 winter.

9 in Jan 1985? I thought it was 7 with a low of -2 lol. How many times has NYC seen a high of single digits or lower and do you have a breakdown of when it happened and what the min/max were on those days? Thanks!

So I take it he saved it from back then to use now? Interesting

I knew it looked familiar somehow

I mean it's pretty obvious- he's 5-posted and knows if he posted those would get used up pretty quickly, and then people would post in response and he wouldn't be able to respond back, etc.

sounds like a virus lol

I mean it is over there lol. I have the unusual blessing of living in two entirely different climates. The south shore of LI is definitely "humid subtropical"....the crazy thing is I feel a lot colder in the house I have on the south shore than I do up at 2000 ft in the Poconos. That house is like a sieve down there and whenever the wind blows I can feel it. Cloudy days with wind are the worse, I keep a space heater going at 80 degrees in my bedroom in addition to the house heat being on. In my other home in the mountains I turn down the heat and keep the fireplace going all night and feel perfectly fine in a t-shirt.

Latitude doesn't matter as much as elevation here I guess.....I'm pretty much snowed in. We had 3 inches last night, and I measured snow depth in various places, it's over 20 inches everywhere it seems, I'd say an average of about 25" and 4 feet drifts up against my deck. This is going to take a long time to melt. It's hard as a MF cant see any animal tracks anywhere and that's unusual because I have squirrels, rabbits, foxes, etc. here.

Couldnt get into my house in NE PA because there's about 20 inches of snow everywhere (no drifts). Had to shovel for over 2 hours just so I could open the blocked gate. I thought the sun of the last 3 days would have melted most of this =\

Chris this correlation doesn't account for February, it must be even lower now.

thats why I'm strongly against enso based forecasting

Do you have any ideas how this summer and next winter might go? I saw SnowGoose's thinking that next winter may start out with good blocking but it would probably go away as the winter went on. Which got me thinking about 2009-10, the Summer of 2010, and 2010-11. We're in the 11 year peak summer cycle, so could this be another 2010 like historic heat summer? And the early blocking pattern would fit 2010-11 to a tee. I realize that the enso progression doesn't fit, but what about the possible blocking pattern? You did say that blocking winters usually go in pairs or trios.

so it sounds like a dual enhancement effect where the two (warmer SST and more stalling of the MJO) fed off each other which has resulted in less Phase 8s and more extremes. Fits right in with climate modeling.